Player Data: Age: 27 (9/3/95), B/T: L/L
Traditional Stats: 28 G (19 GS), 105.2 IP, 7-5, 3.83 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, 126 SO, 48 BB
Advanced Stats: 101 ERA+, 27.8 K%, 10.6 BB%, 3.94 xERA, 3.64 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 0.9 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR
2022 Salary: $700,000 (arbitration eligible in 2023, free agent in 2026)
2022 Review
David Peterson did a little bit of everything for the New York Mets in 2022. He was projected to start the season with Triple-A Syracuse before injuries struck the Mets’ rotation. He ended up starting 19 games and appearing in nine others out of the bullpen. Overall, the results were largely good, though one big Achilles’ heel hindered him throughout the season.
On the face of things, his numbers were good. Peterson turned in a 3.83 ERA and 126 strikeouts over 105 2/3 innings pitched. This 27.8% strikeout rate, which ranked in the league’s 80th percentile, was easily a career high. Peterson also set a career-high in innings pitched among several other statistical categories. In total, opposing hitters slashed .236/.327/.378 against him, good for an OPS of .706. Not too shabby.
Peterson’s underlying and expected figures also paint a decent picture. His xERA of 3.94 and xFIP of 3.31 each are good numbers. He relied heavily on an elite slider that generated a BA and xBA of .175 and .173, respectively, which are each toward the top of the league. This, among other aspects, resulted in a extremely strong whiff rate that ranked in the league’s 81st percentile. When it was all said and done, as a result, he posted the gaudy strikeout total and above league average ERA and FIP figures.
The aforementioned Achilles’ heel that plagued Peterson was his control issues. Overall, he owned a 10.6% walk rate, which ranked in the league’s 14th percentile. He would inexplicably go stretches where his control would evade him and the walks would pile up putting Peterson in precarious situations. If Peterson can iron out the walk problems, he has a chance to be a very good starting pitcher for the Mets moving forward.
The other area the 27-year-old had some issues was limiting hard contact. The average exit velocity against Peterson was hard, as he ranked in the league’s 18th percentile in this area. Meanwhile, the hard-hit rate was also poor, as he ranked in the league’s 21st percentile in this area. Some of those struggles can very well be traced back to Peterson needing to fight back in counts when his control evaded him. As he had no choice but to leave pitches out and over the plate, which would sometimes be hammered as a result.
Overall, a nice season for the left-handed pitcher who served a plethora of different roles for the Mets. He was not perfect, though, he was very much serviceable and played a huge role in ensuring that New York’s pitching staff did not completely breakdown when they were suffering injuries left and right.
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
2023 Outlook
Peterson’s Mets outlook is one of the more intriguing on the roster. Will he be used out of the bullpen? Will he continue starting?
Well, interestingly enough, his splits as a starter versus reliever in 2022 were basically identical. Peterson started 19 games posting an ERA of 3.86 and an opponent slash line of .236/.327/.370, this good for an OPS against of .698. Meanwhile, in nine appearances as a reliever, he posted an ERA of 3.68 with an opponent slash line of .235/.328/.431, good for an OPS against of .759.
Peterson’s splits last year further indicate he would be extremely useful out of the bullpen. He held left-handed hitters to a .177 batting average and .640 OPS. Last year, the Mets seemingly struggled for most of the season finding someone who can get left-handed batters out in big spots consistently.
Though, with all this being said, the Mets might need Peterson to start out of necessity. Only one starting pitcher from last year (besides Tylor Megill) is currently under contract, that being Max Scherzer. Each Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker will be, or can be, free agents. Filling four rotation spots in one offseason is a big ask. Penciling Peterson in as the team’s fifth starter and looking to close the gap that way would be much more efficient and a lot easier to do.
Regardless, whatever role Peterson fulfills for New York next year, expect him to be once again very important. If he can iron out the lack of control, he can be a godsend for a Mets’ rotation that will desperately need one next year. If not, you can probably expect another season much like 2022. A valuable starter who can step in when injuries mount, or an effective left-handed arm out of the bullpen.
