Series Preview: Mets Head to Milwaukee For Three-Game Series

As the Mets and Brewers prepare to square off for a three-game set in Milwaukee, both teams are in need of wins. But while the Brewers still remain comfortably in first place despite a five-game losing streak, the Mets are now 7 1/2 games out of the NL East after most recently dropping seven of their past eight contests. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Mets playoff odds now sit below 1%, as the team’s elimination number is four.

New York’s latest losses in a depressing second-half were at the hands of the Red Sox, a team fighting for the playoffs in their own right. After leading Friday’s game 2-0, the Mets fell 6-3 when Marcus Stroman and Miguel Castro both allowed multiple runs. Saturday’s game was all Red Sox, as Boston jumped out to a 10-1 lead after four innings and never looked back. Kyle Schwarber hit two home runs on Saturday, as he continued as dominance against the Mets this season, dating back to his time with the Nationals.

The Brewers enter this weekend with a chance to clinch the NL Central for the second-time in three years. While they still lead the division by 7 1/2 games, they unfortunately ran into the red-hot Cardinals this week. St. Louis went into Milwaukee and won all four games, the latest being a 5-0 comeback victory. However, the Brewers have already clinched at least a Wild Card berth, marking their third consecutive playoff appearance.

As the Brew Crew enter the final weeks of September, and soon, the beginning of October, the story of their season continues to be dominant pitching. Three of their starters – Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta – all have posted sub-3.00 ERAs in 2021.

Josh Hader has been one of baseball’s best closers this year, with 33 saves and a 1.34 ERA in 53 2/3 innings pitched.

Friday, September 24, 2021: RHP Tylor Megill (3-5, 4,57 ERA) vs. LHP Eric Lauer (6-5, 3.03 ERA)

A sensational July fully seems to be a thing of the past now for Tylor Megill. His ERA now sits at 6.55 since the beginning of August, a sad slide for a pitcher who was one of baseball’s best pitchers in July (1.04 ERA in five July starts). Megill’s most recent outing saw him struggle against the Cardinals. He lasted just three innings, allowing six runs on nine hits. The start was also noticeable for Megill failing to strike out at least four batters for the first time since July 17. Home runs continue to be a problem for the rookie; he has allowed at least one homer in his past five starts. An encouraging sign is that Megill pitched well against the Brewers earlier this season. He went five innings against Milwaukee on July 5, allowing two hits and one run while striking out seven batters.

Outside of one rough start this season (in which he allowed seven runs in two innings), Eric Lauer has been an extremely reliable pitcher all year. His September has been no different, as the LHP as posted a 1.09 ERA across four starts this month. In each of these games, Lauer has allowed no more than one run. In fact, he has not even allowed more than three runs in a start since June 14. Since that start in which he earned the loss against Cincinnati, Lauer’s ERA is 2.o7.

Saturday, September 25, 2021: LHP Rich Hill (6-7, 3.87 ERA) vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.34 ERA)

Ever since joining the Mets, Rich Hill has done what the team needed him to do: simply provide some length as a starter and limit runs. In 11 games (10 starts) with the Mets, Hill has posted a 3.88 ERA, surprisingly not earning a win yet. September has seen Hill pitch deeper into games, reaching six innings in a start for the first (and soon after, second) times since coming to New York. In four September starts, Hill’s ERA sits a 2.49. The best of these starts was on September 3 in D.C., when Hill tossed six shutout frames, allowing just three hits and two walks.

Despite a “tougher” month than usual, Corbin Burnes remains well in the race for NL Cy Young Honors. I put “tougher” in quotes because it’s been a rough month for his standards. Burnes’ September ERA sits at 2.84 due to two starts allowing three runs each. Despite pitching a quality start in one of these games and going five innings in the other, September is just the second month all season – and the first since June – that Burnes has allowed three runs in a game, multiple times in the same month. In 2021, Burnes has allowed zero runs in eight of his starts, and a mere one run in nine of his starts. His latest gem was an eight-inning, no-hit, no-run, 14-strikeout legendary performance that ended in the Brewers second no-hitter in franchise history on September 11.

Sunday, September 26, 2021: RHP Carlos Carrasco (1-3, 5.24 ERA) vs. RHP Freddy Peralta (9-5, 2.65 ERA)

Ever since increasing his innings-limit in mid-August, Carlos Carrasco has not allowed more than three runs in any start. Since August 20, Carrasco has thrown six starts, pitching at least five innings per outing, while posting a 3.51 ERA over that span. Although he took the loss in his most recent start against the Phillies, Cookie still pitched a quality start. He went six innings, allowing five hits and two runs. Over this career, Carrasco has a 1.64 ERA in 22.0 innings against the Brewers, his lowest ERA against any team that he has thrown at least ten innings against.

Freddy Peralta, part of the Brewers sub-3.00 ERA club, has struggled since August, at least in comparison to his overall season numbers. In seven starts spanning August and September, Peralta has a 4.35 ERA in 31.0 innings. But his best start of this rather difficult span was on September 14, when he threw six shutout innings in Detroit, allowing two hits, no walks, and striking out nine batters. Just like his teammate Burnes, Peralta has also thrown eight games this season allowing no runs. although one of these was in relief on Opening Day.

Prediction

When two teams collide that both can’t seem to earn a win, who emerges victorious? In this case, it will be the Brewers, who need just a few wins to clinch the division, are already looking ahead to October, and who will send three of the National League’s premier starters to the mound this series. The Mets, while *technically* still alive in the playoff race (and that’s almost laughable to say at this point), are all but eliminated and will likely be outplayed by yet another superior ballclub.

Playing in front of the always-energetic Milwaukee crowd, the Mets offense will mostly fail to produce against the extremely talented Brewers pitching staff. Meanwhile, the Brewers end their losing streak, clinch the division by the weekend’s end, and officially eliminate New York from the playoffs, bringing an end to one of the worst collapses in team history.

Author’s Note: I made the two-hour plane ride from New York to Milwaukee to watch the Mets on the road this weekend, a trip I’ve been looking forward to for months. So while I hope my prediction is wrong and I can experience a Mets win or two for the final time in person this season, the rational part of me tells me those hopes will likely go unfulfilled. But as always, #LGM.