What were the odds of yesterday’s walk-off? Down four runs in the ninth, the team that fails to score more than 3.5 runs per game was certainly doomed.
Were they 1,000,000 to 1? Maybe 1,000,000,000 to 1?
To recap, Brandon Nimmo hit a home run, then Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso, Javier Baez, and Michael Conforto rallied for consecutive hits with two outs.
Without a doubt in my mind, it’s the most improbable thing the Mets have done this season. And maybe it’s a glimmer of hope with a month of baseball left to play.
The Mets swept the doubleheader yesterday, the fourth time they’ve done so all season. Conforto who was seen slamming his helmet and bat in the dugout like never before hit a two-run shot to put the Mets up in Game 2. In the worst season of his career, he put it together for one day.
Was the ninth-inning rally enough to fix the Mets mentally at the plate? We’ve hoped for it after other offensive outbursts this season. Like when they tagged Gerrit Cole and Aroldis Chapman for seven runs in July, or the 15-11 slugfest win over Cincinnati, or the 13-2 win against Atlanta back in May.
Basic laws of averages say the Mets are going to regress back to their mean at some point. That means Conforto has 40 points of batting average to gain, Jeff McNeil has 50 points, Lindor has 60 points to gain. There is an opportunity for the Mets to take back the division.
The Metropolitans have 13 games remaining against the Nationals and Marlins. Plus winnable series against the Cardinals, Phillies, and Red Sox before a final three-game series in Atlanta. The Braves will play six against Washington and Miami plus four in Colorado, seven against San Diego, and three in San Diego. New York is only 5.5 games back.
We’re used to seeing the Mets win the division in August and lose it in September. Now they can reverse the trend and make the comeback this team is capable of on paper.
As Baez dove into home plate Tuesday afternoon he lost his diamond earring somewhere in either the dirt or grass. A literal diamond in the rough. September could be the Mets diamond in the rough month.
In 2015 Wilmer Flores hit a walk-off home run on July 31. The most emotional Mets win of the season and they’d follow by going 20-8 in the month of August. Well, it might have been a month late but Conforto’s walk-off was the most smiles the Mets have shown all year.
They’re two years removed from the “Never Say Die” Mets. Most of that lineup is still here. They finished that season 24-23 in one-run games. The 2021 New York Mets are 26-25 in one-run games. If they can find a way to put grab an extra run per game they’ll make those final three games in October awfully interesting.
Hopefully, the Mets embrace what’s working. A little extra aggressiveness on the basepaths, trying to go the opposite way, keeping the line moving. It’s time for the Mets to show what they’re capable of and the best time to start was yesterday.
