Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY SportsWe’re only at the All-Star break, and yet the Mets have dealt with injuries more than most teams in baseball. In fact, they’ve used 51 players, tied for second most in baseball (only the Brewers and Mariners have used more players (53).
The injuries have specifically taken a toll on the outfield. To date, the Mets have started 11 different outfielders, which is part of the reason the team has trotted out 61 unique lineups (excluding pitchers).
A new term was coined within the Mets organization this season – The ReplaceMets – because the rate at which replacement bats were called up to Queens became almost comical. Several players made starts in the outfield that were arguably Triple A talent.
But now, the ideal lineup is all back – almost. Well, at least the outfield has finally been in Opening Day form since late June. The Mets Opening Day outfield of Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Pillar, and Michael Conforto are part of a four-man rotation, also including Dominic Smith, that starts on the most regular basis. Of all the lineups used by the Mets this season, the most frequent one (eight such occurrences) includes the Smith/Nimmo/Conforto in the outfield.
Cumulatively, Mets outfielders have produced a -2.1 Wins Above Replacement in 2021, besting only the Diamondbacks. So it’s been a tough 80+ games for the outfield group this season, but that doesn’t mean there have not been highlights. Without rambling on any further, let’s dive into the numbers.
The Opening Day Starters
Well, here we are again with injuries. All three of the Mets Opening Day outfield starters have missed significant time because of injuries this season. Of the Nimmo/Pillar/Conforto group, Nimmo has been the best hitter by far – yet he’s played in a mere 31 games this season.
In 121 plate appearances, Nimmo is batting .317/.408/.433 with a 137 OPS+. His batted ground ball percentage sits at an even 50.0%, which pairs nicely with a team-leading 28.9 feet/second sprint speed. Nimmo’s game has always been about hustle– he even sprints to first base after a walk. The numbers back up this play style. Unfortunately for the Mets, a finger injury kept him sidelined for most of May and all of June.
Since returning from the injury, Nimmo is getting on base at a .366 clip, slightly down from his season average, but good enough that it seems his injury is a thing of the past.
Kevin Pillar missed just half a month after getting beamed in the face with a pitch that got away in May. The fact that Pillar was able to return so soon after such a scary injury is incredible enough. Since returning from the IL, Pillar is slugging just .389. Yet he still has belted six home runs during his 39 game run, including long balls in back-to-back games versus the Phillies in June.
The bat has just not been there this year for Pillar. From Baseball Savant, xwOBA of .277 is a career low – and it ranks in the bottom 4% of the major leagues this season.
Nicknamed “Superman” for his defensive wizardry, Pillar’s fielding has been far from his usual self as well. His BIS Defensive Runs Saved Above Average is 1 this season – far from the career high of 24 he reached in 2014 as a Blue Jay.
Despite the lackluster numbers, it should be emphasized once again that Pillar inspired this ball club by returning so quickly from one of the worst injuries any athlete can suffer.
Perhaps the most disappointing Met this season when considering expectations entering 2021, Michael Conforto has simply not found a rhythm this season. In 52 games, he’s hit only 3 home runs and barely clearing a .300 slugging percentage. The advanced numbers back up his struggles. Conforto has a sweet spot percentage of 31.4%, a career low. His average exit velocity of 87.6 miles per hour also marks a career worst.
Since returning from a hamstring injury in June, Conforto’s slugging percentage has dipped to .220. He did knock a home run in Sunday’s loss vs. Pittsburgh, a good sign for the struggling lefty headed into the second half of the season.
Improved Defense
With no more designated hitter in the NL this season, the Mets, the Mets had a dilemma. They had two star first baseman (Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith), with Smith having limited, below-average time spent in the outfield.
Many expected Smith to have continued struggles in left field, his unnatural position. Yet he’s done his best to quiet any skeptics of his fielding thus far in 2021. Smith’s expected catch percentage of 93% is a career high. Looking at his Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average Per 1,200 Innings, he’s added 19 runs. For comparison, he was worth a negative 43 runs as an outfielder in 2020. What a difference a season makes, and in this case, maybe Smith has benefited from the elimination of the DH.
At the plate, Smith has been roughly a league average hitter all year. His 98 OPS+ backs that statement up. An interesting development is his regression against breaking pitches. In 2020, Smith posted a .532 xSLG in 55 plate appearances. This year, that number is down to a .358 percentage in 107 plate appearances.
Against offspeed pitches, Smith seems to be a victim of unluckiness this season. In 2020, Smith’s slugging percentage vs. expected slugging percentage numbers on offspeed pitches were .622 vs. .394. But in 2021, those numbers are now .392 vs. 409. A reasonable conclusion here is that Smith was lucky in 2020, but those fortunes have reversed this year. He hit 10 home runs in 50 games last year. Now, he’s at just 9 home runs in 60.2% more games.
#BenchMob
Where would the Mets be without the bench mob this season? Most likely, not sitting in first place in the NL East. Seemingly game in and game out, the Mets have had a new bench player come off the bench to provide heroics of some sort. Now, the outfielders has not been as significant contributors to the bench mob as other positions on the field, but their presence has still been felt.
Billy McKinney, acquired in a late May trade from Milwaukee, has played in almost an equal amount of games for each team this year (40 with Milwaukee, 39 with New York). Since the trade, his OPS has risen from .619 as a Brewer to .776 as a Met. His 0.3 WAR already matches. a career high, previously done in 2019 with the Blue Jays. Since joining the Mets, he already has a two-homer game and has amassed 12 extra base hits.
On the flip side, there were some outfielders who really did not produce at all. Albert Almora Jr. collected a mere three hits in 41 plate appearances, adding a walk as well. His xwOBA of .158 is a career low.
Brandon Drury played just 7 of his 46 games for the Mets this year in the outfield. On the season, his xSLG of .253 is a career worst.
Mason Williams got some playing time starting in center field when injuries were really hampering the Mets. His 77 OPS+ is his best since 2018, but his xwOBA of .258 is the third worst of his career.
In just seven games in his rookie season, Johneshwy Fargas has produced a respectable 121 OPS+. Four of his six hits have gone for extra bases.
Another rookie, Khalil Lee struck out 13 times in 18 plate appearances. His lone hit was a double. Those numbers lead to a not so good OPS+, which currently sits at negative 55.
Lastly, Cameron Maybin is also a member of the 2021 Mets outfielders one-hit club. In 33 plate appearances (28 at bats), he collected a mere hit in a May win versus Washington. Maybin also walked three times, but his stay in Queens lasted a short nine contests.
Of all these bench outfielders, three of them appeared in the Syracuse Mets loss to Rochester on June 14 (Williams, Drury, Lee). So the fact that a third of a Triple-A lineup tonight struggled in the major leagues this season is not much of a surprise.
Final Grade: B-
I’m extremely confident that the grade I’d give the Mets outfielders for the second half of this season will be better than this B- grade of the first half. Simply put, injuries have hurt the overall outfield production, pushing many of those “AAAA” players into a role they were not ready to handle.
But now the regulars are back in the lineup, and if Nimmo/Conforto/Smith/Pillar can eat up most of the playing time in the outfield, expect those offensive jumpers to be boosted.
Nimmo has been excellent, but with how little he played this year, it just hasn’t been enough to carry this unit. Smith’s glove has made up for his otherwise not too great bat. And Conforto has not been able to find a consistent approach at the plate. Based on the law of averages alone, I’d expect both Smith and Conforto to improve as hitters in the second half, also considering the rest of the lineup (infield) is there as important protection.
Pillar filled in when needed and gave the Mets some decent production and played hard.
The fact that the Mets are in first place and beating great teams is awesome. But the outfield hasn’t played too helpful of a role in 2021. This was partially due to injuries, but also because of a lack of production from players that had lofty expectations for 2021.
I think B- is a good grade for this group of outfielders, who, besides Nimmo, have not really been above average all year. Those replacement outfielders alone probably deserve a grade no better than a C. So the fact that a B- grade was ultimately earned here is largely a testament to the perseverance of the outfielders as a whole.
Expect much better production to come out of these guys from now until October.
