Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
So let’s hope Kyle Schwarber is done hitting homers against the Mets for the year.
While not likely the case, Schwarber hit five home runs across the final two games of the four-game series against New York. He single-handedly beat the Mets over those two games, and they split the other two. Nevertheless, it’s a disappointing start to a 16-game stretch against NL East opponents, especially after winning seven of 11 games against the likes of the Cubs and Padres.
Despite Schwarber’s homers, the Mets still struggled to score runs outside of a Francisco Lindor burst in Game 1 of Saturday’s doubleheader. That’s been the tale of just about every series loss (and some series wins), so let’s dig into positive and negative trends from this one.
3 Up
Francisco Lindor’s Exit Velocity
Francisco Lindor has been mashing the ball lately, highlighted by Saturday’s Game 1 performance where he hit four balls 96 miles per hour or faster. Two of them went over the wall, and one knocked in another run on a single.
Lindor’s exit velocity has improved vastly in June as he’s squaring up balls more. With it, so has his slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). His month-by-month exit velocity, SLG, and xwOBA graphs are nearly identical.
This has also come with him hitting the ball on the ground less (50 percent in April and May vs. about 40 percent in June) and his barrel percentage (the ideal contact scenario) increasing from 3.1 percent in April to 6.7 percent in May to 11.3 percent in June so far.
The results of all this? A .275/.359/.881 slash line in June.
Lindor said Saturday he’s felt far more comfortable as a Met the last couple of weeks, and it’s shown at the plate.
Seth Lugo‘s Scoreless Streak
Seth Lugo returned to the Mets at the beginning of June and allowed a run in his first appearance.
Since then, his line is: 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 11 K
His last two appearances have been for just one out (they were on back-to-back days), which is a little concerning given he said he felt a little gassed after the first one and couldn’t throw another inning. But these came after his 37-pitch outing against the Cubs, where he worked himself into a little trouble before getting out of it over two innings. It was the most pitches he’s thrown in an outing on his young season, so perhaps he just needed a couple of extra low-pitch days to help recover.
Lugo has been one of the best relievers in the majors the last couple of years, and it’s been nice to see him return to form quickly.
Walker Gutting it Out
Taijuan Walker clearly wasn’t feeling great in his Sunday start against the Nationals. He was taking deep breaths out on the mound in the second and third innings looking like he was gassed, he was getting drenched with cool towels between innings and he was doing that whole stretching thing where you bend down then twist around a bit when your whole body feels like crap. And this all came after it was revealed he was dealing with a stomach bug leading up to his last start, where he threw seven innings of two-run ball.
You wonder if Sunday was general fatigue, as he’s now thrown more innings in 2021 than he had the three seasons from 2018 to 2020 combined. Or if it was fatigue from the stomach bug, and he was working his way through building some endurance back up.
I’m looking at this as a positive because Walker gutted it out for 6 1/3 innings when the team needed him to go deep, and he saved the bullpen a long day between two doubleheaders. You’ll take it.
3 Down
Facing Lefty Pitching
The Mets as a team have been one of the worst performers against left-handed pitching in the National League this season. That was highlighted with two Nationals starters shutting them down. Jon Lester (who the Mets usually don’t have success against) and Patrick Corbin (who the Mets usually have success against) combined for: 12 IP, 11 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 13 K.
Overall on the year, the Mets are 13th (out of 15) in the National League in batting average against lefties at .221 and 13th (.675) in OPS. Some other rankings against lefties in some important statistics:
- K%: 10th (25.5 percent)
- Runs: 15th (57)
- wOBA: 12th (.297)
- wRC+: 11th (93)
They, along with the Marlins, Padres, and Pirates, typically round out the bottom four of the major stats against lefties.
And that now leads to…
The Offense Is Slumping
Partly aided by their poor performances against left-handed pitching, the Mets have been in a big-time slump because they’re not hitting right-handed pitching, either.
Over the last five games, the Mets have gone 23-for-141 and scored nine runs. That’s a .163 average and 1.8 runs a game.
They were shut out twice in a row to start the skid — the fourth and fifth occurrences this year, which is a little surprising given how few runs they score per game. In their last three games, eight of the nine runs they scored came on five home runs with little offense outside of those hits.
It seems the ReplaceMets — Kevin Pillar, José Peraza, Brandon Drury, and the ilk — have run out of steam as the team looks to get healthy with Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, and Brandon Nimmo all expected back in the next week to week and a half. The hope is the offense will round into form once their primary starters are able to return to those roles.
Sean Reid-Foley is Struggling
Sean Reid-Foley was one of the many Mets touched up by Schwarber over the weekend, but the mustached reliever was rocked and then some for the tune of five runs in 1 2/3 innings by the Nats. His ERA doubled from 2.30 to 4.67 after the performance.
Saturday was just Reid-Foley’s second appearance since returning to the major-league roster, but he gave up a run in his first outing back, too, as well as runs in his two appearances before being sent down. He gave up one run over his first 9 1/3 innings. Since then, he’s allowed eight runs in as many innings.
When digging into metrics like his hard-hit percentage, chase percentage, barrel percentage, and such, they’ve all fluctuated pretty regularly when comparing pre-being sent down and since being recalled. (And, for what it’s worth, he pitched 4 1/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts while down in the minors)
The major thing of note is his breaking ball and changeup spin rate were down significantly Saturday compared to his yearly average, and his velocity on the pitches were down a tick or two. (His fastball was about normal, and all pitches were about normal in his appearance three days prior.) But when you look at the 11 of the breaking ball and changeups he threw, only one went for a hit — a home run. He gave up four hits (one home run) on 34 fastballs. So it’s largely looking like just a really bad outing.
While Saturday was likely an anomaly, his first nine innings with the Mets where he allowed just a run wasn’t likely sustainable. We’ll see how he rebound in his next couple of outings and see if he can find a nice medium.
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The Mets are still 36-29 and four games ahead of the Phillies for first place.
They play four games in three days against the Braves to start the week, get a much needed off day on Thursday, then play four more games in three days against the Phillies — all at Citi Field, where they have a 20-7 record and 2.05 team ERA.
