
In August 2019, New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto slugged his 100th career home run. That started a discussion about his place in franchise history, which I also wrote about.
Within that article, I mentioned that a solid-to-great 2020 campaign could have him inside the top four of Mets outfielders with regard to career fWAR. Of course, I said that before the world ended, any span of time felt like it was at least 84 years long, and the MLB was still planning on having a 162-game season in 2020. Even with just 60 games on the schedule, Scooter has positioned himself nicely heading into 2021.
Which, by the way, is currently his final season under team control before hitting free agency. (Paging Uncle Stevie, please stop this from happening.)
The Breakthrough We’ve Been Waiting For
It’s not as if Conforto disappointed over the past few years that preceded his most recent performance. It’s just that what he accomplished this past year was head-and-shoulders above what he did previously.
Even if he kept producing like he had in 2018 and 2019 — 25-plus homer power and at least 80 RBI with a wRC+ north of 120 — the Mets would’ve gladly taken that. This is why it was so eye-popping to see him slash .322/.412/.515 with nine homers, 31 RBI, and 40 runs scored in 233 plate appearances. His power numbers appeared to take a step back (.237 ISO in ’19, .193 in ’20), but it’s not like that would’ve prevented him from getting his typical numbers.
If his statistics were extrapolated (that’s my SAT word for the day) over the length of a 162-game season, here’s what Conforto (and a few other notable Mets hitters) would’ve produced:
162 game projections, notable #Mets, offense:
Dom Smith: 56 2B, 27 HR, 113 RBI
Brandon Nimmo: 89 BB, 21 HR, 116 K
Michael Conforto: 32 2B, 24 HR, 83 RBI
Robinson Canó: 24 2B, 27 HR, 81 RBI
Jeff McNeil: 153 H, 37 2B, 10 HR, 62 RBI
Alonso was projected in an earlier tweet.
— Michael Baron (@michaelgbaron) September 28, 2020
If New York played a full season and Conforto ended with those three numbers, it would’ve been his fourth consecutive year of 20-plus homers and his third-straight campaign of 80-plus RBI, along with a new single-season career-high mark in doubles. The 157 wRC+ he finished with after 54 games is a new high-water mark as a big leaguer.
There are some things that likely would’ve normalized over a full season, too — like his line-drive rate (30.3% in ’20, 22.7% for career) and his fly-ball rate (28.3% in ’20, 38.3% for career). So, thinking he would’ve likely outproduced the above homer pace isn’t outrageous.
The one thing that will hopefully stick moving forward? Using all fields, which he did the most since his 2017 All-Star campaign.
Scooter’s Relative Consistency
When we’re talking about fWAR, the 2.0 Conforto produced in 2020 led the team. It was the first time he led the Mets in this category since posting 4.4 fWAR in just 440 plate appearances in 2017.
Along with pacing the position players in New York with regard to fWAR, Conforto also found himself within the top 20 of qualified hitters. After getting overshadowed in 2018 (Brandon Nimmo‘s breakout) and 2019 (Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil breakouts), it was nice to see him find his way back to the top and get some well deserved attention.
Starting with that 2017 campaign, Conforto has been rather consistent in the fWAR department. His numbers the past four seasons read as follows: 4.4, 3.0, 3.7, and 2.0. There have been just 16 instances since 2000 where a qualified Mets outfielder has produced at least 2.0 fWAR in a single season.
There have been only two New York outfielders to hit that benchmark more than twice — Carlos Beltran between 2005 and 2008 and Conforto between 2018 and 2020. Scooter doesn’t get the nod in this specific case for 2017 because he technically didn’t qualify for the batting title. If we drop the plate appearance requirement to 400 (outside of 2020, of course), there have been 25 instances of a Mets outfielder producing at least 2.0 fWAR in a single season, Beltran and Conforto are still the only ones to do it more than twice.
Place on Franchise Leaderboards Now and Moving Forward
Despite the shortened season, Conforto made the most of his opportunity to keep climbing the franchise’s career outfielder leaderboard. He began the year with 14.0 fWAR, tied with Lenny Dykstra for eighth-most all-time in Mets history. His 2.0 fWAR accumulated during 2020 helped him leap over Nails, Tommie Agee, and Kevin McReynolds for fifth place.
And if we’re assuming a normal — or, at least close to normal — season in 2021, Conforto will only be looking up at Beltran and Darryl Strawberry on the career fWAR for Mets outfielders when things are all said and done. Here’s a look at what the top five currently looks like:

It’s worth noting that Conforto has found his way into the top five despite playing in just 632 games and compiling 2,501 plate appearances. Beltran is the only one out of the other four who didn’t play at least 1,100 games with New York, and all four stepped to the plate at least 1,000 more times.
With the breakout we saw him enjoy in 2020, common sense says the trajectory is looking upward over the next few years. That’s especially the case as he’ll be entering his age-28 campaign in 2021 prior to hitting free agency. It’d be nice to also keep him around for at least 29-32 and watch him continue working up the franchise leaderboards.





