Before the shortened 2020 MLB regular season got underway last month, I made a case for New York Mets infielder/outfielder, Jeff McNeil, hitting .400. It sounded like he was even giving it a little thought himself.

Unfortunately, that possibility is now just a dream unless he gets absurdly hot over the next four weeks (which everyone would welcome with open arms).

When looking at his on-field production for New York from his debut in July of 2018 through the end of 2019, McNeil was one of the best players in baseball. His 7.3 fWAR ranked 15th, his 141 wRC+ ranked 13th, and his .896 OPS ranked 24th. His production was rewarded with an All-Star selection last season… and then he went on a second-half power surge to finish with 23 home runs.

The sky has appeared to be the limit for him since all he’s done is hit since arriving in Flushing. That’s why it’s so weird to see him not really doing that in 2020. Although he showed some life Monday with two doubles, he’s slashing just .269/.336/.344 with no homers, nine RBI, a 92 wRC+, and a 0.3 fWAR.

Based off what we’ve seen previously, this isn’t the McNeil we know and love. Could something more be going on here? After all, his 2019 campaign ended prematurely because of wrist surgery, and he did injure his knee colliding into the outfield wall to make a catch earlier this year (even though he didn’t land on the Injured List for it).

There are always external variables that can impact a player in a million different ways, whether it’s because of an injury or something else (like Wilson Ramos’ case).

Outside of those possibilities, I was curious as to whether there was something specific giving McNeil a harder time than last year. His BABIP doesn’t seem terribly out of whack despite it being considerably lower right now (.309). The same can be said about his hard-hit rate (35.9% coming into Monday) and the rest of his batted-ball profile (his 25.6% line-drive rate was actually on a career-high pace).

His average exit velocity is down, though, and a handful of his Statcast metrics aren’t showing a ton of great things at the moment. When digging in a little further, it appears that sliders and curveballs are giving him a huge problem. Prior to Monday’s game, the frequency in which McNeil has seen sliders (15.6% to 17.3%) and curveballs (8.8% to 11.1%) has noticeably increased. Those increases have basically come from fastballs, as he’s seen that pitch at only a 47.9% clip (53.7% in ‘19). The results are, let’s just say, stark.

McNeil has seen five pitches more than 30 times thus far (four-seamer, slider, change up, sinker, and curveball). He’s posted a wRC+ of at least 98 for each offering, except the breaking pitches. Heading into Monday, he owned a -23 wRC+ against sliders and a -22 mark against curveballs. Woof. Even for the pitches he’s had success against, his power has basically been nonexistent. While this issue is across the board, his Statcast profile shows how it’s effecting what he does against breaking balls specifically.

After registering an exit velocity of 88 mph and a 14° launch angle when facing breaking pitches in 2019, those numbers were down to 82.1 and 9, respectively, prior to Monday’s game against the Miami Marlins. It’s also worth noting that his launch angle on fastballs has gone from 15 to 4, but that’s a topic for another day.

Once again looking at McNeil’s overall numbers, it’s great that his line-drive rate has seen a lift because that would hypothetically mean he’s giving himself the best chance possible to get base hits. But it’s not as great when seeing how the quality of contact on his Statcast page has changed.

This all checks out because he entered Monday with a 209 wRC+ on liners after posting a 348 mark in 2019. More isn’t necessarily better if the quality isn’t there. The above numbers have obviously also had a major impact on his fly-ball results. After posting a 161 wRC+ for that batted-ball event last year, that number has plummeted down to -7 prior to Monday. Double woof.

New York’s lineup was expected to be the team’s greatest strength with guys like McNeil and Pete Alonso anchoring it in different spots. They’re both struggling and are thanking Dominic Smith for picking up the slack on a daily basis, along with some others. Whether McNeil is still fighting off lingering effects of an injury or he’s just pressing too much, this is all a great lesson to learn earlier rather than later in one’s career.

McNeil hasn’t dealt with a prolonged slump like this that wrecked havoc on his season-long numbers since slashing .254/.295/.366 in Triple-A…in 2017. It’s been a while since he’s had to fight through a big hole he’s put himself in — let alone doing it in the big leagues. He’s got four weeks left in the regular season, and that’s plenty of time to right the ship during a short season. McNeil needs to get on it quickly, though, or else he’ll have to stew about this throughout the winter, which we all know won’t be enjoyable for him.