It’s a wacky thing this thing called sports. One day, you root for a team because they’re playing another team your favorite team is trying to catch. The next day you hate this same team because they now face your favorite team. That’s the situation Mets fans find themselves in.
The New York Mets begin their final road series of the year as they face the Cincinnati Reds (72-81) in a three-game set. The Reds are coming off a series victory over the Chicago Cubs, one of the teams the Mets are trying to catch for the Wild Card. Mets fans rooted wildly for the Reds, especially on Wednesday as the Mets had just come from behind to defeat the Colorado Rockies in an afternoon tilt. That night, the Reds needed extra-innings to defeat the Cubs in an exciting game. Thank you for the favor Reds, now it’s time to dislike you again.
The Mets (79-73) probably flew to the Queen’s City without needing a plane after their four-run outburst in the top of the ninth to defeat the Rockies to take the series. Overall, the Mets are 7-3 in their last ten games and 33-17 in their last 50 contests. The Mets have won 14 of their 20 series since the All-Star break. They are 19-11 on the road in the second half. Overall, they are 36-42 away from Citi Field on the year.
Some of the Mets players, such as Michael Conforto and others have struggled recently at the plate. Also, situational hitting has been a problem that started in the Dodgers series and carried over into Denver. The Mets were only 5-for-21 with RISP in the three games against the Rockies. And then there was some questionable managerial decisions that had seemed to simmer down for awhile as manager Mickey Callaway seemed to be pressing the right buttons, but as of late, some of his decisions have come into question.
The Cincinnati Reds are in fourth place in the NL Central, 11.5 games behind the front-running St. Louis Cardinals They have won five of their last seven games, winning their last two series against the aforementioned Cubs and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Reds depend largely on their pitching as they rank fourth in the NL in team pitching with a 4.18 team ERA. Their .236 BAA is second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Luis Castillo, who the Mets will face on Friday, leads his team with wins with 15 and strikeouts with 211. Sonny Gray, who has been resurrected in the mid-west after an unsuccessful stint with the Yankees, leads the Reds with a 2.80 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The Mets will not face Gray in the series. Reds closer Raisel Iglesias has 33 saves, which is tied for second in the league.
Cincinnati ranks 12th in the National League in team batting. They have scored 675 runs in 153 games, an average of 4.41 runs per game. The Reds have a .245 team BA and a .739 OPS. Shortstop Jose Iglesias leads the team with a .288 batting average. In all other offensive categories, third baseman Eugenio Suarez shows the way. He lead the Reds in home runs with 48 (second in the league to Pete Alonso), runs scored with 86 and in RBIs with 102. He has an impressive .935 OPS.
The Reds can throw around a little leather as they rank sixth in the NL in team defense. They have committed 82 errors on the year and have a fielding percentage of .985.
The Cincinnati Reds are managed by 47 year-old David Bell. Bell played for six Major League franchises mostly as a third baseman. His playing career ended in 2006. In 2008, he managed the Reds Double-A and later Triple-A affiliates. After coaching stints with the Cubs, Cardinals and Giants, he returned to Cincy to become the 63rd manager in Reds franchise history on October 21, 2018. He signed a three-year deal with the Reds with a club option for a fourth.
Friday, September 20: RHP Jacob deGrom vs RHP Luis Castillo 7:10 PM
2019 Stats: deGrom 9-8 record, 2.61 ERA (2.79 FIP), 1.005 WHIP, 11.3 Ks/9, 2.0 BB/9; Castillo 15-6 record, 3.22 ERA (3.63 FIP), 1.136 WHIP, 10.6 Ks/9, 3.6 BB/9
A nice juicy match-up for game one of the series pitting a perennial All-Star and Cy Young winning pitcher versus a young, third year strikeout machine. Luis Castillo has won four of his last five starts, and the start he lost, he only gave up two earned runs in 7 2/3 innings. He is looking to add to his career high in wins. Castillo faced the Mets on April 30 of this year giving up two runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings in a game the Mets won, 4-3. Castillo received a no-decision for his efforts.
Jacob deGrom pitched a gem against the Dodgers last out only to be denied the win once again. He pitched seven shutout innings versus the league’s top offensive team allowing only three hits in seven innings. DeGrom leads the majors with a 2.09 ERA since May 22. He also leads the league in WHIP and strikeouts (239). Lifetime, he is 2-1 against the Reds with a 1.74 ERA in five starts. He is very much in the conversation to win his second consecutive Cy Young Award.
Saturday, September 21: RHP Zack Wheeler vs RHP Anthony DeSclafani 4:10 PM
2019 Stats: Wheeler 11-7 record, 4.09 ERA (3.50 FIP), 1.292 WHIP, 8.9 Ks/9, 2.4 BB/9; DeSclafani 9-9 record, 3.93 ERA (4.52 FIP), 1.201 WHIP, 9.0 Ks/9, 2.7 BB/9
Anthony DeSclafani was a tough luck loser in his last out. He pitched seven innings of one run, one hit ball and lost the game 1-0 to the Diamondbacks. In that game, he threw 78 pitches, 53 of which were strikes. Over his last six starts, DeSclafani is 2-2 with a 2.13 ERA. He faced the Mets on May 1 and was effective allowing no runs on three hits in 5 2/3 innings.
In each of his last four starts, Zack Wheeler has given up one earned run. He is pitching to a 1.44 ERA during that span with 23 strikeouts. Opponents are batting nearly .300 against Wheeler, but Zack has shown an uncanny ability to get in, then out of trouble with little to no damage done. He will be a free agent at the end of the year and potentially could only have two starts left as a Met.
Sunday, September 22: LHP Steven Matz vs RHP Trevor Bauer 1:10 PM
2019 Stats: Matz 10-9 record, 4.16 ERA (4.54 FIP), 1.333 WHIP, 8.6 Ks/9, 2.8 BB/9; Bauer 11-12 record, 4.41 ERA (4.75 FIP), 1.419 WHIP, 10.9 Ks/9, 3.5 BB/9
Trevor Bauer is 2-4 with the Reds since being traded by the Cleveland Indians at the trade deadline. In his last start, he picked up the win against Arizona giving up only one run on four hits in eight innings. In three September starts he is 1-0 with a 3.26 ERA. Bauer has only faced the Mets once in his career and that was in 2016 as a member of the Indians. Todd Frazier is hitting .350 against Bauer with one home run while Rajai Davis has one homer and four RBIs off the righthander.
Steven Matz will be making his second consecutive road start. That is significant because he is 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA at Citi Field and 3-8 with a 6.68 in all other ball parks. This is exemplified by his last start at Coors Field where he allowed seven runs on six hits against the Rockies. Matz has faced the Reds twice in his career, both times in 2015. He is 1-0 against them with a 3.38 ERA.
Prediction: Some Wild Card housekeeping before the prediction: on Thursday the Phillies lost to the Braves, 5-4, the Brewers bested the Padres 5-1, and the Cubs lost their third straight falling to the Cardinals, 5-4 in 10 innings. The current standings as of late Thursday show Milwaukee now 1/2 a game ahead of the Cubs for the second Wild Card spot. The Mets are 3.5 GB the Brewers and only 2.5 GB the Cubs.
As far as this series, it is not a walk-in the park affair at all. The Reds have an above .500 record at home (40-35) and have played gritty ball over the last week plus. The two teams split four games at Citi Field earlier in the year, each game decided by one run. Suarez is on a tear despite the overall woes of the Cincinnati offense.
The first game of the series will dictate things. It has all the makings of another low scoring game, with a sparkling performance by deGrom (and Castillo) only to have Jake come away with another no-decision. If the Mets can get game one, they should be able to take the series despite Matz’s shortcomings pitching on the road. This series will be tougher than most think, but the pick here is the resilient Mets will find a way to take two out of three from the Reds before returning home to finish the season.
