All it takes is one good look across the league, specifically in the direction of the Houston Astros, to see the value attached to the interpretation and usage of advanced analytics.
While those interpretations and valuations vary from team to team and even from analyst to analyst, at this point in the game’s history, there’s no debating the clear-cut effects sabermetrics has had on the game, as a whole.
Apparently, New York Mets manager Mickey Callaway doesn’t believe the hype.
After removing his starter, left-hander Steven Matz, on Wednesday night in Atlanta after six outstanding innings and with just 79 pitches under his belt, right-hander Seth Lugo was accosted for five earned runs in the seventh and, despite a late rally, a much-needed victory was lost.
After the game, Callaway stood by his decision, noting “we had the best reliever in baseball sitting down there”, referring to Lugo, and adding he’d “make that move 100 times out of 100”.
On Thursday afternoon, Callaway, still being prodded over his futile determination on Wednesday, was asked about the usage of advanced analytics in the team’s decision-making process, and gave an awfully revealing answer (quotes via Tim Healey, Newsday).
“I bet 85 percent of our decisions go against the analytics, and that’s how it’s always going to be because that is just on paper. It doesn’t take into account the person is a human being, how he performs in these big spots, all those things that a manager looks at.”
“What does that matchup look like? What is the projection that our analytics department is coming up with? What does it look like? And if it’s a lot of points, one way or the other, I think that’s something to take into consideration to try and make a better decision.”
For as long as the game’s been around, one of the basic tenets of on-field management has been utilizing a combination of statistical tendencies, baseball experience/intelligence, and good, old-fashioned gut feelings to navigate a roster of 25 ballplayers through a 162-game season.
Callaway ignoring the analytically-based findings of general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s front office “85 percent of the time” while declaring, defiantly, if I might add, “that’s how it’s always going to be” is quite a stance to take; especially in today’s game.
