Avisail Garcia

Position: OF
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: June 12th, 1991 (27)

Traditional Stats: .236/.281/.438, 11 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 49 RBI, 3 SB, 1 CS
Advanced Stats: 0.3 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR, 96 OPS+, 92 wRC+
Defensive Stats: -4 DRS, -3.1

Overview

Avisail Garcia‘s story is one of intrigue, curiosity, and upside never quite reached. Garcia was a Venezuelan man-child, signed to the Tigers as an international free agent in the 2007 signing period. At the time of his first call-up in 2012, Garcia, at 6’4″ 240 lbs, was heralded as “Mini-Miggy”, because his massive frame and right-handed swing drew comparisons to teammate and Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera. Garcia was a top-100 prospect prior to the 2013 season, and looked to be part of the Tigers’ future plans.

However, Garcia underwhelmed in small amounts of big-league playing time in 2012 and 2013, allowing the Tigers to deem him expendable at the trade deadline in 2013 as they geared up for a return to the playoffs. He was dealt to the White Sox in a three-team deal on July 30th, 2013 that included Jake Peavy and Jose Iglesias.

Garcia has been a staple for the White Sox in right field ever since, and 2017 proved to be his best season. Garcia posted an OPS of .885, better than his next highest mark by over .100 points. He also blasted 18 homers while driving in 80 runs and providing serviceable defense in right. He was an All-Star selection for the first time as well.

2018 proved to be far more difficult for Garcia. His significantly deflated stat line is likely influenced by a series of knee and hamstring problems that plagued him throughout the season. Prior to being non-tendered by the White Sox on November 30th, Garcia underwent surgery to “clean up” his right knee. Garcia, in an article with the Chicago Tribune, said his right knee being hurt was an issue for him because “that’s where [his] power is.” Despite reaching a career high 19 home runs, one better than he had in his All-Star season, Garcia’s slugging percentage did drop by nearly .70 points from 2017 to 2018. He dropped from 4.2 wins above replacement to a neutral WAR.

Despite the significant upside power-potential with Garcia, especially considering his improving health and productivity in his most recent healthy season, he is still a flawed player. His defense took a small downturn from slightly above-average to average in rightfield in 2018, although he was out there running around on a balky knee and bad hamstrings. He posted +5 outs above average, an improvement on 2017. He doesn’t add a whole lot of risk in right, and he’s played in left in the past. There are worse defensive options, but there are better options, too. It should also be noted that Garcia still topped out with a 29.0 ft/sec sprint speed, which is still well above-average, despite the leg injuries.

Garcia is also an aggressive hitter. For his career, Garcia has swung at about 58% of pitches he has seen, well above league average. This makes for fairly high strikeout totals and very low walk totals. Garcia got on base at a .380 clip in 2017, but he hit .330. Put in perspective, the on-base percentage is not as impressive as it looks isolate. His .281 clip in 2018 and .321 career clip are even more harrowing. Garcia had an impossibly high .392 batting average on balls in play in 2017, which overcorrected to a .271 mark in 2018. His true offensive profile probably fits somewhere in the middle. 2017 was simply unsustainable, but Garcia is still strong, swings a lot, and hits balls hard. He shouldn’t be as bad as he was in 2018, assuming he is healthy, after all. He’s also 27 still, and with his large-but-athletic frame, his best years might still be ahead of him.

 

Contract

Garcia was set to hit arbitration-3 this offseason before the White Sox non-tendered him, meaning that he would have had a single year of club control remaining before he hit free agency. Because of his All-Star season in 2017, he got a nice pay raise last offseason, making $6.7 million. He was projected to make upwards of $8 million in 2019, a price that proved too steep for the White Sox. Garcia’s youth and questionable history make a specific contract prediction difficult. A short-term deal could benefit both sides; Garcia can reestablish his value and test the market and the team that throws a flier out on his does not have a burdensome investment. A 2-year deal in the neighborhood of $9-12M could work here.

 

Recommendation

Garcia isn’t a perfect fit for the Mets. If they are in the market for an outfielder, they would probably prefer one that can play center field, which could range from a luxury model like A.J. Pollock to a platoon-type, like Jon Jay. What the Mets could use is some right-handed outfield depth so that Brandon Nimmo or Michael Conforto can sit against the odd tough lefty if need be. Recently signed Rajai Davis fits this role if he makes the roster, but Garcia would provide some youth and power potential to the role. Garcia would be the type of potent bat that the Mets are lacking on their bench. As a relatively low-risk, high-reward pickup, Avisail Garcia could be a beneficial move for the Mets.