The New York Mets have been good early in the season as evident by their 5-1 record and it is not just a product of Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Actually, the opposite, many facets of this team have been productive and maybe the least productive member of the Mets pitching staff (aside from Steven Matz) has been Syndergaard.
The Rotation
The rotation has not been bad but they have also not been dominant, yet. The starting staff ranks second in K/9 (11.15), 10th in BB/9 (2.93), seventh in ERA (3.23), and sixth in FIP (3.15). Those are not bad stats at all, in fact that might have the makings of a top-10 starting staff in baseball. Their only problem has been innings pitched with 30.2. They rank 26th in all of baseball for innings pitched.
This is not necessarily a bad thing but it has it’s issues. Matt Harvey should not be expected to go more than five or six innings. Noah Syndergaard on the other hand can be expected to pitch deeper into games. Syndergaard has had a very weird start to this season. He has been racking up strikeouts left and right but he has also been struggling to have quick and efficient innings.
With that said, I would be stunned if Syndergaard did not figure things out very quickly. He still has a 2.75 FIP, generates weak contact (just a 89.4 MPH average exit velocity off him), and his swinging strike rate has been as good as it has ever been. Is it bad weather affecting him? Maybe facing a couple of teams with good plate discipline right off the bat? No matter the reason, I expect him to figure things out soon.
The rotation as a whole should be able to stay above average. They might have some bad performances here and there but there is also enough depth in Las Vegas to overcome any potential bumps. Let me put it this way, we don’t need to get innings out of Tommy Milone, Adam Wilk, or other pitchers of that nature.
The Bullpen
The bullpen has been awesome. The bullpen as a whole is second in K/9 (13.11), first in K% (37.4), second in ERA (1.16), fourth in FIP (2.44), and first in WHIP (0.94). With all that said, the bullpen will not be this good as we move along in the season. They will blow some games, they won’t strikeout 37% of the guys they face, and they won’t have a 1.16 ERA. However, the bullpen can easily be very good.
The two big reasons why they will be good is the success of Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo in the multi-inning reliever role. Gsellman is sporting a 3.00 GB/FB ratio and an insane 57.1% strikeout rate. Lugo has 40% of his batters and while both have done this in a small sample, it does speak to how much better their stuff has looked out of the bullpen.
Both guys were starters with mediocre stuff but both have looked very formidable in the bullpen. In small sample sizes, both have been throwing their breaking pitches more often than they did each of the past two seasons and their fastball velocities have ticked up.
Their breaking pitches are also much sharper this season as opposed to last year. Gsellman is generating 2,711 revolutions-per-minute on his curveball this year as opposed to 2,600 revolutions-per-minute in 2017. Lugo’s curveball is still amazing. The Mets have told him to throw it more and that has worked wonders for pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr. and Charlie Morton (no, I’m not comparing him to either of those two).
The bullpen has looked awesome and that is with Jeurys Familia giving up five baserunners in 4.1 innings. Anthony Swarzak had a good first impression with the Mets and hopefully he will return from his oblique injury soon.
The bullpen also has arms in the minors like Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista, Drew Smith, and Tyler Bashlor who could be knocking on the door soon. Having relief depth is always a good thing.
The Offense
The outlook on the offense looks good after the triumphant return of Michael Conforto. After one game back, Conforto looks like the guy who was an All-Star in 2017. The biggest concern with Conforto was his power stroke. In his first game back, he homered to the opposite field off one of the best pitchers in baseball. I think it is safe to say that he is 100%.
Couple that a healthy Yoenis Cespedes who is coming out hitting like he wants to make a case for MVP. Cespedes is hitting .273/.402/.682 on this very young season and he is hitting rockets all over the field. Cespedes ranks 14th out of 244 in exit velocity among players with at least 10 balls hit into play. The ball is coming off his bat at an average of 95.1 MPH, nearly five MPH faster than it was in 2017. He is on a mission.
Perhaps the most refreshing thing about the Mets thus far is their revamped left side of the infield. The Mets infield is tied for sixth in baseball (78%) on ground balls converted into outs according to Sports Info Solutions. Having Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario out there is a significant improvement over the cast of out-of-place players they had in 2017.
Outside of the Cespedes-Conforto duo and the improved infield defense, the improved play of Kevin Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud stand out. Mets catchers rank third in OBP (.458), sixth in slugging (.500), third in wOBA (.425), and third in wRC+ (173). They might not be a top-five offensive tandem but they should be pretty good. Both hit very well in September of 2017 and have carried that into 2018. Plawecki continues to decrease his ground ball rate and d’Arnaud’s swing looks much more cleaner.
Takeaway
It’s obviously really early but I think this team has the makings of being good. They have good depth, a good lineup, and a deep pitching staff. Will they maintain a 83.33% winning percentage? No. But nothing of their start makes them look like a fluky team.
