As you know, one prominent name that was missing from Sunday’s lineup against the Colorado Rockies, was that of right fielder Curtis Granderson. Manager Terry Collins gave his leadoff hitter the day off hoping that a two-day respite will help get Granderson out of the funk that has been plaguing him in recent weeks. Collins is very concerned with Granderson’s shrinking walk-rate.
“He’s just not getting the bases on balls that he had last year. But the swing is fine. Last year he would draw those walks and even though he wasn’t hitting necessarily for a high average, the bases on balls got him on base.”
When you’re hitting .200 with a .287 on-base percentage and a -0.6 WAR a month and a half into the season, you begin to wonder if a player is in for a rough year. However, when that player is 35, you start to wonder if this is the beginning of the end. Those are the whispers that now surround Granderson. Are those concerns premature? Maybe. Let’s take a closer look at what the numbers tell us.
After an underwhelming 2014, Granderson was reunited with Kevin Long. The result was pure magic in 2015. Granderson hit .259/.364/.457 with 26 homers and 70 RBI from the leadoff spot. He had a 128 OPS+, a 132 wRC+, and a 5.1 WAR. As noted above, Granderson’s 2016 numbers are a far cry from that.
What’s happening?
First, Granderson’s BABIP in May was .152. Granderson’s career BABIP is .299 – right around league average. That would suggest Granderson is due for a little luck. With that luck, he could return to his 2015 form. However, there are some warning signs.
According to FanGraphs, Granderson’s hitting a lot of ground balls. His GB/FB ratio is now 0.98, the highest level of his career. He’s hitting ground balls 41.2% of the time, also the highest level in his career.
Conversely, he’s hitting fewer line drives. He’s only hitting line drives 16.7% of the time, and that unfortunately is lowest in his career. He’s pulling the ball 45.6% of the time while hitting it up the middle 39.8% of the time.
Long story short, Granderson is getting affected by the shift. That’s going to happen when you hit more and more ground balls. That’s going to happen when you hit the ball up the middle and to the right side 85.4 percent of the time.
“He’s one of those guys that with all of the shifting, it’s certainly taken away a lot of hits from him,” said Collins on Sunday.
Granderson hit .241/.347/.471 with four homers in April, and he did that despite starting the month with a 1-for-24 stretch. Also keep in mind, Granderson’s worst month last year was May.
Overall, there is still plenty of time left in the year. Like last year, Granderson can rebound from a rough May and put up terrific numbers. There are some valid concerns, but sooner or later I believe we should see the 2015 version of Granderson emerge… or at least the 2016 April version.
