Alex asks…
I have a question about Daniel Murphy. Let’s say the Mets are in the thick of a fight for the division a game out of first. Murphy is having a typical season and is in the top five in doubles, runs and base hits while batting .285. Will the Mets trade him at the deadline? Should they? It’s obvious the Mets won’t make a qualifying offer after the season so he ends up walking away like Jose Reyes did only this time we get no compensation draft pick. Have we totally misplayed this?
Tommy replies…
Much has been made about Daniel Murphy’s future with the Mets. He’s a reliable hitter with average speed (he can be sneaky, too: he stole 23 bases in 2013). He can play a few positions at a justifiable level, but defense is not his strong suit. He has worked very hard to become an okay second baseman, although cannot be called “good” at that position by any means. He had his moments at first base, which isn’t that hard of a position to play, and showed promise at third base while filling in for David Wright. He was a total train wreck in left field (the error he made against the Marlins that cost Johan Santana the game in a duel with Josh Johnson still haunts me). Some of his harsher critics have described him as nothing more than a “super-utility infielder.” But for the “utility” critics out there, it’s worth noting that the Mets were made to look rather foolish by Justin Turner, who had an excellent season in 2014 after being dumped by the Mets.
Anyway, I would say that you can live with him in the infield (although putting him up the middle with another weak defender in Wilmer Flores isn’t ideal) and he will make it worth your while at the plate. While Murph has little power— he should post about 10 home runs a season, give-or-take— he is an excellent contact hitter who can drive the ball into the gaps for a double with regularity. He doesn’t miss a beat with runners in scoring position, either, which is tough to say about most of the guys on this Mets team. To say Murphy isn’t a second baseman right now— to call him a utility guy without a position, seems rather unwise from my point of view. Some players are stronger with the bat, others are better with the glove.
Daniel Murphy is one of the better players on New York’s roster, and definitely one of the best Mets who doesn’t do their work from the pitcher’s mound. Daniel was fittingly given the honor of representing the Mets at the All-Star Game last summer, and he led his team in several offensive categories. He’s a big piece of the puzzle. So what’s the problem with Murphy? Why are we asking questions about him? MONEY, of course!
Murph’s contract is up after this season, the Mets haven’t been blown away in trade offers for him, and the team has made it quite apparent that they don’t intend to offer him a long-term deal this season. Murphy will probably end up getting somewhere between $8 and $12 million dollars a year, and a 3 or 4 year contract, if I had to guess. Teams like the Yankees and Dodgers would happily dole out 4 years and $40 million to a key piece of their lineup, especially if offense was the team’s weakness, but the Mets can’t operate like a kid who has turned the “budget” setting off in his video game, so there is a tough decision to be made on Murphy. I would probably give him a deal around 3 years and $30 million and see if he takes it.
Murphy is a good player– an asset. And it’s not a guarantee that he will be around for the long haul so the Mets should look to get something out of him. They can try to get a few years of solid baseball by signing him to a reasonable extension. They can try to get a prospect or a major-league contributor for him now or at the deadline, maybe making him part of a package for a game-changing bat. Or, if they find themselves in the thick of the race as the question proposed, they could decide that having Daniel Murphy in their lineup down the stretch (and hopefully into October) is valuable enough to keep him through the season regardless of whether they intend to sign him.
In today’s game, with two wild cards, it’s a bit risky to really “go for it” unless you’re really in the division hunt, because you’re no longer guaranteed a playoff series– you might get no more than one game to show for your strong regular season (as Billy Beane knows very well). But if the Mets are in the hunt, I don’t think they would “dump” or even “sell” Murphy like they did with, for example, Marlon Byrd.
This team needs to win to get its credibility back, and unless they get a far better return than they have supposedly gotten in offers for Murphy to this point, shedding one of the team’s best hitters in the middle of a playoff race would be a very questionable move. Unless, of course, Murphy were bringing back a guy who could contribute right away, or being moved in a package for a star.
If however, the Mets find themselves heading towards another irrelevant September and a sub-500 season, then they would have to decide if they intend to sign Murphy to an extension, and if not, trading him would almost certainly be the right move.
As for the second part of the question, I disagree with the claim that it is “obvious” that the Mets would not offer Murphy a qualifying offer (which would be a 1-year deal worth roughly $15 million).
First of all, no player has ever accepted a qualifying offer, so the chances they would have to aren’t very high. He won’t be seeing long-term offers that pay him $15 million a season, but players tend to value years over average salary, so Murphy would likely decline the qualifying offer and look for a deal structured similarly to the hypothetical ones I have proposed above.
If Murphy were to accept the qualifying offer, it probably wouldn’t be the end of the world. The Wilpons might not be able to hand out lucrative multi-year contracts like candy, but paying a solid hitter somewhere around $15 million on nothing more than a one-year commitment should still be pretty feasible for the MLB’s newest chief of finance. At least if Murphy declines the offer and leaves for elsewhere, the Mets will likely be compensated with a first or second round draft pick. So all things considered, I think the Mets would and should tender Murphy a qualifying offer.
To wrap things up: I don’t think the Mets have totally misplayed this, as they have several options and still have the time and the means to adapt to however the season plays out for Daniel and the team. There is, of course, still time for the Mets to mishandle the situation, but up to this point, I think Sandy Alderson and the rest of the front office have handled things adequately.
