An MMO Fan Shot by Chuck M.
ESPN posted articles January 8th on AL and NL team defenses. In terms of DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), the Mets team defense last year outperformed the Giants by a good amount.
The top two were the Cards and Reds with 76 and 71 DRS, respectively. As you can see in the chart to the right, the Mets were tied with the Braves with 22 DRS.
Surprisingly, the World Champion Giants were tied with the Nationals with only 9 DRS. Washington, of course was also a playoff team and won more games last season than any other team in the league.
The Marlins, Cubs, and Phillies all went negative, at -11, -20, and -29, respectively.
So nine teams outperformed the Giants in terms of DRS, including the Mets.
What drove the Giants’ 2014 championship season? Great hitting? No, it was decent, and better than the Mets, but not great. Great pitching? Again, other than Bumgarner, decent overall and again better than the Mets, but not great. It was the combination of somewhat better hitting (particularly more hits instead of walks) combined with somewhat better pitching that allowed fewer baserunners. It overcame their poor defense throughout the season. Once the postseason arrived, they just got hot and rose to the occasion.
Here is a sampling of some stats comparing the Giants and Mets regular season results in 2014:
Standard Slash Line for Team
So SF had a little better BA and a little more power.
Slash Line Breakdown Down Per Team
They had nearly the exact number of baserunners 1,834 for SF and 1,822 for the Mets. SF had 101 more hits than the Mets and 36 more runs scored. Additionally, SF had 56 SB while the Mets had 101, yet the Mets still scored 36 less runs. Those 101 additional hits for the Giants clearly outweighed the 89 additional walks the Mets had, and that’s even with 45 less SB.
Key Standard Pitching Values
In the pitching department, SF gave up 8 less HR’s, 120 less BB’s, and 65 less hits. So even with 185 less base runners, SF still gave up almost as many runs as the Mets did, as you can see below. It’s a good thing for them that their pitching kept men off the bases.
Run Differential
SFG: 665 Runs Scored – 614 Runs Allowed
NYM: 629 Runs Scored – 618 Runs Allowed
I do believe that our pitching can rise to their level this year, and maybe even exceed it. Combine better pitching with an improved offense, and the Mets should turn that into a winning season and a good shot at a Wild Card, even with a less than stellar defense.
Improved Offense:
Hopefully an offense that provides more hits over walks this year.
Michael Cuddyer and John Mayberry Jr. are a definite improvement over last year’s Chris Young and Eric Young Jr. as a starting outfielder and a fourth outfielder bench role. Cuddyer’s health and games played should be better when not playing half the year in the high elevations of Colorado.
Further improvement from Travis d’Arnaud on both sides of the plate. Some kind of bounce back for David Wright. He should be at least 50 percent closer to his career norms this year than he was last year, which will be a decent gain, even if he doesn’t hit like an All Star.
Wilmer Flores hitting well, and with some power, combined with roughly adequate defense. Lucas Duda continuing to hit well (and maybe better against LHP this year). Daniel Murphy being Murphy as long as he remains on the team.
The hope of a little more balanced output from Grandy, plus a little more power; and finally, I expect Juan Lagares to show some improvement at the plate, to go along with his incredible defense.
Quality Depth:
I am favoring Cesar Puello over Eric Campbell for the bench this year. Looking at Campbell’s splits last year, he was miserable the second half after the pitchers figured him out. As far as infield depth, Ruben Tejada can sub at 2B and SS; Flores can play 2B; Murphy and Flores can both play 3B if needed; Cuddyer can play 1B; and we also have Herrera for 2B as well as Matt Reynolds who can play both 2B and SS waiting in the wings. We really do need to find out now if Puello is ever going to fly.
Improved Starting Rotation:
With Matt Harvey coming back, a huge boost is expected as he essentially replaces last season’s fifth starter production. It’s good to have a five man rotation where no one is looked at as a number five. If Harvey bursts out of the gate pitching like a number one or two, watch out. Assuming Jacob deGrom proves last year was not a fluke, and adding in further maturation from Zack Wheeler, we could have a killer rotation, even without the rise of Syndergaard or Montero or Matz.
An Improved Bullpen:
This year we start the season with a emerging bullpen weapons Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia in established roles instead of a bunch of aging retreads. The pen will probably get stronger still as the year goes on, with Bobby Parnell coming back, and maybe even a solid MiLB graduation from someone else, whether Montero or Leathersich or Alvarez, etc.
Adequate Defense: Even if it’s incrementally less than last year.
This leads me to think there’s a chance the Mets can be last season’s San Francisco Giants. So color me optimistic. Let’s Go Mets!
P.S. Yes I know we have a weak spot at manager, but I’m hoping even TC can have a career year.
* * * * * * * *
This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Chuck M. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 25,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to us at [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
