In every organization, there are players that fly under the radar despite consistently producing at a high level in the minor leagues. Once these players reach minor league free agency, they are finally given a chance to replicate their minor league success in bigs. Last year, utility man Yangervis Solarte broke camp as the Yankees starting third baseman and was eventually dealt to San Diego for former All-Star Chase Headley.
This year, Allan Dykstra could be the next no-name prospect to rise to major league relevance.
Despite never really generating much buzz in the prospect world, Dykstra was consistently one of the top hitters in the Mets organization over the last few seasons. However, the Mets never acknowledged Dykstra’s solid performances or rewarded him with big league playing time. They repeated the lefty in Double-A for three straight seasons (even though he posted an OPS above .840 his first two years in Double-A) and failed to call him up to Queens despite his .930 OPS in 439 Triple-A plate appearances last year.
Unfortunately for the Mets, their inaction caused this underrated prospect to sign with the Tampa Bay Rays following the 2014 season. Dykstra, in the prime of his career at 27-years-old, has a real chance to open the 2015 season as the backup to James Loney at Tropicana Field.
The Rays may have gotten the steal of the minor league offseason, as their brand-new first baseman was excellent at the minor league’s highest level in 2014. Dykstra’s 2014 performance earned him a spot on MiLB.com’s Mets Organizational All-Stars list. He slashed a 280/.426/.504 line with Triple-A Las Vegas, and it was the fourth straight season that he posted above a 140 a wRC+. That means that he’s created 40% more runs than the league average ballplayer over last four years. Those are the kinds of players you just can’t let hit the open market.
In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a season in which Dyskstra struggled in the Mets organization. After being traded to New York, the first baseman never batted below .261, posted an OPS less than .830, or drove in fewer than 74 RBI over a full season.
Furthermore, the former Padre first-rounder never reached base at lower than a .389 clip in his pro career, demonstrating that his power and contact tools stack up well against the minor league’s best competition.
Dykstra’s vulnerability to the strikeout is one of the few areas where he can legitimately be criticized; the lowest strikeout percentage he’s posted in his pro career was 22.1%. However, Dykstra counters this high-strikeout rate with a stellar eye at the plate. In 2014, he swung at only 9% of pitches outside the zone and he has averaged a 20% walk rate since 2012.
Considering the philosophy the Mets try to impose on their young hitters, it’s surprising Dykstra wasn’t given a chance at the big league level. He profiles as the typical moneyball player; he has solid power, an excellent batting eye, and would be playing at the major league minimum for the next few seasons.
There’s one clear reason why the Mets didn’t resign Dykstra; Lucas Duda emerged as a huge power-hitting threat in their lineup. However, while I believe Duda will continue to build on his success in 2015, having a quality power bat off the bench that also provides injury insurance is a valuable commodity. Should Lucas Duda get injured or even revert to his pre-2014 struggles, the Mets would have to shift Daniel Murphy to first, Wilmer Flores to second, and move Ruben Tejada to short as a probable contingency plan.
While Dykstra is a relatively unknown major league quantity, he has nonetheless averaged a solid .858 OPS in his first five professional seasons. He will finally get a chance to make a big league roster during 2015 Spring Training with the Rays. And if his minor league numbers are even somewhat indicative of his major league performance, the underrated slugger from California will maximize his opportunity and find a home in Tampa Bay.
Watch out. By midseason 2015, we could be talking about Allan Dykstra as the steal of the minor league offseason signings.
“I was in San Diego when he was drafted,” said Sandy Alderson last season. “A couple of us were involved in trading for him from San Diego to bring him here. He has had a great season, and he has approached the game, offensively, the way the organization hopes to approach the game at the major-league level.”
Should anything happen to Lucas Duda, the Mets could regret not retaining Dykstra after years invested in developing his skills.
