Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
I have been wrapping my head around these rankings for days. For I am Sisyphus and the Fangraphs projections page is my boulder that tumbles down the mountain once I near my answer.
This persistent struggle against the absurdity that is the National League East number one starter debate will ultimately lead to an answer that can be argued for and against a million different ways.
Before we even look into the question as a whole we must determine who even are the No. 1 starters in the NL East.
Mets: Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander
Braves: Max Fried or Spencer Strider
Phillies: Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola
Marlins: Sandy Alcantara
Nationals: Josiah Gray
Great so we have three teams with a toss-up, a reigning Cy Young Award winner, and Josiah Gray. Sorry, Josiah.
5. Josiah Gray, WSH
Gray earns the Nationals’ ace spot over Patrick Corbin due to prospect pedigree and potential. In 2020 he was the Los Angeles Dodgers’ third-overall prospect. He moved up to second in 2021 with the graduations of Dustin May and Gavin Lux. Gray was then dealt to the Nationals along with Keibert Ruiz for Scherzer and Trea Turner.
The return for the Nationals has been less than stellar. Gray, 25, is still finding his way in the league and likely won’t be Washington’s best pitcher next year (ahem, Trevor Williams). Gray has made 41 major league starts, to the tune of a 5.17 ERA in 219.1 innings.
Gray is projected for 1.0 WAR next season with a 4.60 ERA in 24 starts.
Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Now let’s try and determine the true ace in these pitching battles.
Scherzer vs. Verlander
Two former teammates are back together. Two generational aces and future Hall of Fame members lead the Mets into the 2023 season but their 2022 seasons went differently.
Scherzer, 38, threw the fewest innings last season (sans 2020) since his rookie year in Arizona when he appeared in 16 games and made seven starts. Scherzer was still terrific when he pitched, a 2.29 ERA, 2.62 FIP, and 10.71 k/9 shows the Scherzdog still has it in him.
Verlander made his return from Tommy John surgery in 2022. Now 39, Verlander is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner after posting a 1.75 ERA over 175.0 innings pitched. Verlander was the Mets make-up signing for losing out on Jacob deGrom and it’s likely he’ll get the Opening Day nod so the Mets can show off their shiny new addition.
EDGE: Verlander
Fried vs. Strider
Fried is the incumbent ace of the Braves. The 28 year old lefty was Atlanta’s most reliable starter last season with 30 starts and over 185 innings pitched. Strider was the new flamethrower. He started the season in Atlanta’s pen but jumped into the rotation to start 20 games and strike out a ludicrous 38.3% of batters faced.
Strider had a better FIP (1.83) than Fried (2.70) and finished with 0.1 less fWAR than Fried in 55 fewer innings pitched. Unfortunately for Strider, his end of the season was hampered by an oblique injury. It’s unknown if Strider can handle a full-season workload and how he’ll look over time so for now I have to go with Fried.
EDGE: Fried
Wheeler vs. Nola
Wheeler and Nola have flip-flopped the ace status of the Phillies for a few seasons now.
Wheeler is a season removed from finishing second in the NL Cy Young vote where he led baseball in innings pitched and strikeouts. Then he followed it up in 2022 with a 2.82 ERA in 153.0 innings.
Nola is a one-time All-Star as well, last making the team in 2018. While Wheeler shined in 2021, Nola had the worst season of his career with a 4.63 ERA in 32 games started. But Nola bounced back in 2022 with a 3.25 ERA in 205.0 innings pitched while finishing fourth in Cy Young voting. Additionally, he proved how useless pitcher records are by going 11-13.
Nola hasn’t made under 32 starts in a season since 2017 and finished with 2.1 more fWAR than Wheeler last season. 2023 looks like another season of Nola leading the charge.
EDGE: Nola
Okay, now we have the final four: Verlander, Fried, Nola, and Alcantara.
How do they rank up?
Here’s how certain projection systems predict they’ll do.
ZiPS
1. Nola: 13-9, 188.1 IP, 3.54 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 4.6 WAR
2. Fried: 15-6, 172.2 IP, 3.02 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 3.7 WAR
3. Verlander: 14-7, 165.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.7 WAR
4. Alcantara: 12-10, 209.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.7 WAR
Well, thanks for nothing ZiPS.
Steamer
1. Nola: 13-10, 199,0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 4.2 WAR
2. Verlander: 12-9, 180.0 IP, 3.36 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 4.0 WAR
3. Alcantara: 12-11, 211.0 IP, 3.56 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 4.0 WAR
4. Fried: 13-9, 190.0 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 3.2 WAR
Steamer also has Scherzer (4.3 WAR) over Nola and Wheeler (3.9) and Strider (3.7) over Fried.
The BAT
1. Nola: 15-9 195.0 IP, 3.39 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 4.8 WAR
2. Alcantara: 14-11, 204.0 IP, 3.37 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 4.5 WAR
3. Verlander: 12-8, 163.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 4.0 WAR
4. Fried: 14-9, 182.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 3.9 WAR
The BAT has Strider as their fourth-best pitcher (4.7 WAR), Wheeler as their seventh (4.4), and Scherzer as their ninth (4.2).
Frankly, I’m lost as to where to go from here. Nola is projected as the best but that just subjectively feels wrong.
Okay, I’ll just use the fairest scoring system of all. Mario Kart. The top starter by projected WAR gets 10 points, the second gets 8, the third gets 6, the fourth gets 4, the fifth gets 3, and so on. Here’s how all eight names rank up with the three projections.
- Nola – 10-8-10-28
- Scherzer – 2-10-3-15
- Wheeler – 8-3-4-15
- Alcantara – 3-4-6-13
- Verlander – 4-6-2-12
- Strider – 1-2-8-11
- Fried – 6-1-1-8
- Gray – 0-0-0-0
Well, Aaron Nola wins it in a runaway. If anything this list is less of a testament to who is the “top-ace” and more oh my goodness the NL East is absolutely stacked at pitching for this upcoming season.
Excluding Gray, all seven of those pitchers ranked among the top 20 starters for next season. That’s incredible. There is not a division in baseball with more pitching talent and it will be a shame the MLB schedule changed so these teams cannot play each other for half the season.
