Position: Relief Pitcher
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 30 (December 18, 1992)

2023 Traditional Stats: 3.52 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 23 IP, 4.3 BB/9, 12.9 SO/9
2023 Advanced Stats: 2.98 FIP, 126 ERA+, 35.1 SO%, 11.7 BB %, 44 GB%, 2.1 HR%, 83.5 average EV

Rundown

The 2023 MLB season is flying by, and after a 60-game sample size, it’s time to start speculating about the MLB trade deadline.

Despite the Mets’ lackluster start, they will certainly be buyers at the end of July. The roster has many holes, and Billy Eppler will have to address them if New York is going to compete with the top teams in the National League come October.

From now until the trade deadline on August 1, Metsmerized will be covering top trade candidates for the Mets to go after in 2023. Since bullpen depth has been an enormous issue early for the Mets, the first candidate we’ve highlighted for Metsmerized is Scott Barlow of the Kansas City Royals.

Due to pitching on some horrible Royal teams, Barlow has quietly been one of the better relievers in MLB since 2021. The 6-3, 210-pound right-hander has averaged a 176 ERA+ over the last three seasons, and had the best season of his career in 2022, where he pitched to a 2.18 ERA, 0.966 WHIP, and 9.3 strikeouts per nine.

Barlow is primarily a breaking ball pitcher. He throws his slider (41.4%) and curveball (30.9%) the majority of the time and keeps batters true with his four-seamer, which is thrown at the top of the zone. The 30-year-old isn’t a flamethrower, as his slider comes in at 83 miles per hour, and his fastball at 93 mph. But while he isn’t overpowering, his slider is more than effective. Batters are hitting .189 against the pitch in 2023, which is higher than the xBA of .182. When batters do make contact with the slider, it isn’t for power. Batters have only slugged .327 against Barlow’s slider, which is also higher than the xSLG of .247.

The slider is Barlow’s bread-and-butter pitch, but his curveball has been the dominant of the two. Batters are hitting a measly .036 against the pitch, while whiffing 44.4% of the time. More impressively, Barlow has thrown 115 curveballs in 2023, and has allowed one hit against it the whole season — a single.

The combination of these two pitches has led to a successful start for Barlow, and an outstanding baseball savant page. The Royals reliever is in the 99th percentile for average exit velocity (83.5 mph), 94th percentile for HardHit%, 84th percentile for Whiff%, and 82nd percentile for chase rate. For translation, his stuff is legit.

Barlow has been an advanced stat darling in 2023, but, like all pitchers (except Edwin Díaz), he does have an Achilles’ heel. He walks a lot of batters. Besides his outlier 2022 season, Barlow has always recorded a WHIP above 1.100. In 2023, he currently has a 4.3 BB/9 (2nd highest of his career) rate and is in the 18th percentile for BB%.

However, Barlow’s high walk percentage hasn’t stopped him from being an above-average reliever in 2023. He currently has a 3.52 ERA, which is worse than his 2.98 FIP. Barlow is a ground-ball pitcher first, and gets batters to hit the ball on the ground 44% of the time. With that in mind, it’s not ludicrous to say Barlow would be better with the Met’s defense behind him—which has allowed the least amount of errors (20) in MLB this season.

Should the Mets Trade for Him?

The Mets should absolutely target Barlow before the MLB trade deadline. The bullpen depth has been exposed early in the season, and the group of Mets’ pitchers own a collective 4.11 ERA across 213 innings. Barlow would help make a dent in the Mets’ home run problem, as he has only allowed two long balls in 23 innings pitched—while the Mets bullpen has allowed the fourth most (31) home runs in MLB.

Besides his more than suitable numbers, Barlow is a tantalizing asset due to his service time. The reliever is on a one-year, $5.3 million deal, and has one last year of arbitration in 2024. The Mets would be getting a high-leverage reliever on a good deal through next season. Imagine Barlow with Edwin Díaz next year?

If traded for, Barlow could solidify the later innings for the Mets this season. He could provide a bridge to Adam Ottavino and David R0bertson, while also providing some saves when the two need rest. If he was on the Mets, Barlow would have the third-highest ERA+ (126) and highest strikeout rate (12.9).

Targeting Barlow should be a no-brainer deal. The Royals are 18-43 this season, and will most likely sell short-term commodities at the deadline. Barlow has been a trade target for the past couple of years, and Billy Eppler should be proactive about acquiring the right-hander.