Player Data: Age: 28 (6/6/1993), B/T: L/L
Primary Stats: 11 G (8 starts), 38.1 IP, 4.46 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 1-4, 41 SO, 11 BB
Advanced Stats: 90 ERA+, 26.1 KK%, 7.0 BB%, 3.60 xERA, 3.40 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 0.7 fWAR, 0.2 bWAR
2021 Salary: $607,100
Grade: B-
2021 Review
The New York Mets officially acquired Joey Lucchesi, an unorthodox left-handed starting pitcher from San Diego, on January 19th, 2021. He was set to fill a depth role for New York, but due to injuries, the southpaw played a much larger role. This happened, of course, until Tommy John surgery ended Lucchesi’s own up-and-down campaign.
It was a story of two halves this past season for the “Churve-Master.” His season started miserably, having many question why he was brought to the Mets in the first place. In his first five appearances, he allowed 18 hits and 16 runs in 13 2/3 innings, good for a 10.91 ERA. Also, in these appearances, he never lasted more than three innings. This not only spelled trouble for the Mets through his actual performance but also taxed the bullpen behind him greatly. However, after a solid game against Arizona and a horrific appearance against Tampa Bay (1 2/3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER), he settled in.
Lucchesi then made five starts after that rocky beginning to his season. In these appearances, he totaled 22 2/3 innings while only giving up three runs on 15 hits, good for a 1.22 ERA. He also struck out 24 and only walked six. Meanwhile, Lucchesi stretched out his innings per start, making two starts of five-plus innings before his season came to a screeching (and unfortunate) halt due to a significant UCL tear. When all was said and done, he was on pace for career-bests in xERA (3.62), xBAA (.219), and xSLG (.374).
Additionally, when looking back on his rough beginning to the season, he may have been a victim of bad luck and poor play behind him. The below excerpt is from my midseason piece on Lucchesi:
“Hitters registered a .327 actual batting average against during his poor start, but the xBAA was only .253. Usually, when a pitcher endures these types of discrepancies between actual and expected numbers, some bad luck and defensive play (less likely given the Mets’ defensive prowess this season) is to blame. This may have made his rough start look worse than it actually was.”
Overall, once he found his footing after a rough May and short part of June, Lucchesi was on pace to put up a career season. In doing so, he would have settled in as a solid fourth or fifth starter for the Mets, filling a huge void the team had and ended up having given his injury.
2022 Outlook
As noted, Lucchesi had Tommy John surgery and is on pace to possibly return, at the earliest, around August of next season. The Mets do hold the left-handed pitcher’s rights until the 2025 campaign. This offseason, he is arbitration-eligible for the first time. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Lucchesi is projected to get roughly $1,600,000 next season.
There is no telling how the surgery will affect Lucchesi. Nonetheless, let’s hope, when he returns, it’s as the pitcher he was in the second part of his injury-shortened 2021 campaign.
