Jerry Blevins, LHP

Player Data: Age: 35, B/T: L/L

Primary Stats: 64 G, 42.2 IP, 8.65 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 1.27 HR/9,  4.85 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

Advanced Stats: 4.97/5.77 FIP/xFIP, 0.38 GB/FB, -0.1 WAR, -0.36 WPA

Contract Status: Impending free agent

Grade: D+

2018 Review

In his fourth season with the New York Mets, Jerry Blevins regressed brutally. The lefty posted career-highs in FIP and BB/9 dating back to his debut in 2007 with the Oakland Athletics, struggling most notably in the three departments that had previously been a walk in the park the prior two seasons: establishing his curveball, retiring left-handers, and stranding runners. While opposing hitters had managed just a .158/.307/.222 (.233 wOBA) line with men in scoring position between 2016 and 2017, the difference was staggering this season: .343/.465/.647 with a .458 wOBA. In terms of OPS alone, Blevins was literally twice as vulnerable.

Left-handed hitters by themselves slashed .260/.341/.444 against Blevins, posting a 35.1% hard-hit rate that nearly doubled the 20.1% he had previously boasted. Blevins’ curveball, which held a value of 10.5 runs above average in 2017 (second-best in baseball behind David Robertson), fell to -4.3 in 2018 – the third-worst in baseball among relievers with at least 40 innings of work.

To Jerry’s credit, his final numbers betray two and a half months’ worth of progress in which his opponents hit just .169/.263/.239 while his ERA fell from 5.30 to 3.46. In those 20.1 innings, Blevins struck out 25 while walking just six. A couple of lousy outings at the end of the season added nine earned runs to the ledger. Then again, one could make the argument that Blevins’ disappearance as the Mets struggled to compete in May and ultimately sank in June deserves the most scrutiny anyway.

Through his first 32 games of the season, Blevins threw just 56% strikes, striking out 13 while walking 12 through 16.1 innings. With a dismal 6.72 xFIP and 19.6% ground-ball rate in that time, his lack of control was evident, and he inspired little confidence out of the bullpen when it mattered.

2019 Outlook

It’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion that Blevins’ best days are behind him. Judging by his growth over the summer and firm velocity figures, the lefty may still have value for teams in need of a small-scale bullpen upgrade. The emergence of Daniel Zamora towards the end of the 2018 season does give the Mets depth at LOOGY, but improving the bullpen should be a focus this offseason and adding another lefty option is a must.

The fan favorite southpaw may find himself lost under a laundry list of qualified free agent relievers, however. And in the event he becomes cheaper, the Mets would have little to lose tossing him a minor-league deal and an outside shot at making the team out of spring training. But be advised: anyone expecting life with Jerry to return to what it was entering 2018 will be sorely disappointed.