So who are these guys and how do they matchup against the Mets?
The Mets are just four wins away from their first World Series title in 29 years, but they will have their hands full against the Kansas City Royals, who not only finished with the American League’s best record, but also earned a World Series berth for the second year in a row.
The Royals are a competitive, relentless team that will certainly give the Mets more trouble than the Cubs did in the NLCS. Let’s take a look at how the two teams match up at each position…
Catcher
Both the Mets and the Royals each have two young, promising players with some power behind the plate. For the Royals, it’s 25 year-old Salvador Perez. Perez, in his fifth big league season, hit a career-high 21 home runs this year, third in the majors among catchers. He’s seen his home run total rise every year of his career. However, along with that rise in power has come a decline in overall offensive production.
The last four seasons, his wRC+ has been 114, 106, 92, and just 87 this year. Perez has become one of those players who, while a home run threat, doesn’t do much else at the plate. Compare that with Travis d’Arnaud, who is arguably one of the best hitting catchers in baseball right now. d’Arnaud, after a strong second half last season, owns a 131 wRC+, second in baseball among catchers. Granted, that’s only in 67 games this year, but we have seen d’Arnaud’s transformation and can say it’s real.
Perez has a huge advantage in the field, however. The last two years according to Fangraphs, Perez has been 28.6 runs above average, and is probably the best defensive catcher in baseball right now. That being said, his production at the plate has dropped so dramatically that it really negates whatever he does defensively. In a series where offense will likely be at a premium.
Advantage: Mets
First Base
Eric Hosmer has had quite an up and down career. In his five seasons, he’s had three very good seasons and two pretty awful ones. This year, he posted a 125 wRC+, knocking 18 home runs. He’s a solid baserunner and a superb defender, despite what the defensive metrics say. He has done virtually nothing this postseason, slashing .222/.234/.311 with just one home run in 45 at-bats.
However, his counterpart Lucas Duda hasn’t been so hot either — at least not until Game 4 of the NLCS. Duda is hitting .214/.290/.393 so far in the playoffs. His Game 4 against the Cubs was fantastic, but with that being the only sign of life from Duda this month and almost a week layoff between series, it’s hard to say which Lucas Duda he’ll be in the World Series.
Based off the fact that neither player has hit well lately and Hosmer is a vastly superior defender…
Advantage: Royals
Second Base
This is our first clear-cut position. Heck, if Mickey Mantle were the Royals second baseman, it would still be clear-cut. Ben Zobrist is now manning second base for the Royals. He had a nice season between the Athletics and Royals, slashing .276/.359/.450 with 13 home runs in 126 games. That’s definitely a better regular season than Daniel Murphy had, but Murphy has been on a whole different level this postseason, homering in six straight games off some of the best pitchers in baseball. There is no player in any sport on as big of a roll as Daniel Murphy is right now.
Advantage: Mets
Shortstop
Alcides Escobar is definitely the most overrated player on the Royals, but he’s on fire right now. For some reason, the Royals have Escobar leading off, despite his .293 OBP this year. Ironically, he is probably the weakest hitting position player on the entire roster. He stole 17 bases (he’s stolen 30 twice in his career) and hit five triples this year, so he has some speed. He doesn’t contribute much offensively, but here’s the catch — he’s an outstanding defender. Behind Andrelton Simmons, he may be the best fielding shortstop in the game. That being said, here’s another instance in which a player is so bad offensively that whatever defensive value he has is mostly negated. He is at best, about as good as Wilmer Flores over the long run.
But as we’ve seen with Daniel Murphy, anything can happen in a short series and the players who get hot are the ones who lead their teams. Escobar was named ALCS MVP and has been killing it at the plate in October. He’s slashing .386/.408/.546 this postseason.
Advantage: Royals
Third Base
Mike Moustakas has finally developed into a good offensive third baseman this year, posting a wRC+ of 124 for the season. However, his regular slash line was very similar to David Wright‘s and both have really struggled to do anything in the postseason.
Moustakas has a .476 OPS so far this postseason and Wright isn’t that much better at .592. They’ve each come up with a few timely hits, but haven’t been able to do much else. It’s really a draw here, but if I’m going to go with someone it’ll be Wright, both because of his longer track record.
Advantage: Mets.
Left Field
I’ve always thought Alex Gordon is one of the most underrated players in baseball . He doesn’t hit for a ton of power (13 home runs in 105 games this year) but he’s a solidly above average hitter. Three out of the last four years, he’s been right around a 120 wRC+. Despite being a left-handed hitter, he hits lefties almost as well as he hits righties. On top of all this, he is one of the top defensive outfielders in the game.
For the Mets, Michael Conforto ha shown he is probably a slightly better hitter than Gordon, with a little more power. However, he’s also only collected one hit in 15 at-bats this postseason, and the long layoff probably won’t help that. Meanwhile, Gordon has had a pretty solid postseason, collecting nine hits (including a home run) in 36 at-bats. While Conforto may end up developing into a much better hitter than Gordon, Gordon is hitting much better right now and has a great glove as well.
Advantage: Royals
Center Field
Lorenzo Cain had an outstanding season this year, slashing .307/.361/.477 with 16 home runs, 28 steals, and his first All-Star Game appearance. The 31 year-old can do it all. He had a fantastic season at the plate this year, finishing with a 129 wRC+. He has some power, which his .171 ISO shows, but he can also hit for a high average. He has very good baserunning abilities as well. According to Fangraphs, he’s been over 11 runs above average on the base paths over the last two seasons, not including his combined 56 stolen bases. In the postseason, Cain has 11 hits in 40 at bats, including a home run. He’s also stolen two bases.
Yoenis Cespedes had an equally awesome regular season, mashing 35 home runs and slashing .291/.328/.542 (135 wRC+) to go along with some very good defense of his own. He’s had a decent postseason, although he’s been chasing a lot of pitches and has struck out 11 times in 34 at-bats. Keep in mind, he is also battling a sore left shoulder, which caused him to leave Game 4 of the NLCS early. He will be ready for the World Series, but that may make it more difficult for him. Cain and Cespedes are certainly different types of players, but both are extremely dangerous. However, because of Cespedes’ injury, the Royals get a very small edge here.
Advantage: Very slightly Royals.
Right Field
Alex Rios is certainly not what he used to be. The 34 year-old hit just .255/.287/.353 this year with four homers and nine stolen bases in 105 games. The former 20/20 players was once a dual threat at the plate and on the base paths, but now lacks real speed or power, and is now really just a liability to the Royals. Compare that to Curtis Granderson, who had a huge bounce-back season and became one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball, the the answer is clear.
Advantage: Big advantage to Mets.
Designated Hitter
This is an instance in which the stupidity of different rules in different leagues rears its ugly head. The Royals were able to carry Kendrys Morales on their roster all season, something no National League team could realistically do because of his horrible defense. He ended up hitting .290/.362/.485 for the year with 22 home runs, something a platoon of Kelly Johnson and Michael Cuddyer can’t match.
Advantage: Royals
Defense
We’ve definitely touched on defense in a few of these individual positions, but we should look at it again more closely. The Royals are far and away the best fielding team in baseball. According to Fangraphs, the Royals as a team were 56.9 runs above average on defense this year. That’s almost double the Giants, who were second with 30.2 runs above average. Gordon, Cain, Escobar, and Hosmer are some of the very best defenders baseball has to offer.
Meanwhile, the Mets have defensive liabilities at first base, second base, shortstop, and right field. Thanks to the designated hitter and a lack of left-handed pitching on the Royals roster, Michael Cuddyer won’t have to play the field, which should help a bit. However, that also means Juan Lagares will see less time, probably only coming in at the very end of games as a defensive replacement. Cespedes is the only great defender who regularly starts.
Advantage: Royals
Starting Pitching
Let’s just have the stats do the talking here:
Royals
Yordano Ventura – 4.08 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Edinson Volquez – 3.55 ERA, 7.0 K.9, 3.2 BB/9
Johnny Cueto (with Royals) – 4.76 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9
Chris Young (as starter) – 3.18 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Mets
Jacob deGrom – 2.54 ERA, 9.7 K9, 1.8 BB/9
Matt Harvey – 2.71 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9
Noah Syndergaard – 3.24 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9
Steven Matz – 2.27 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Advantage: Huge advantage to Mets.
Bullpen
The Royals have arguably the best bullpen in the game right now, even with closer Greg Holland done for the year. Despite being forced to throw the fifth-most innings in baseball, Royals relievers combined for a 2.72 ERA. Wade Davis, who finished the year with a 0.94 ERA, is now closing for Kansas City, and doing an incredible job. Ryan Madson (2.13 ERA), Kelvin Herrera (2.71 ERA), and Franklin Morales (3.18 ERA) have been solid behind Davis.
The Mets bullpen, which experienced a complete shakeup from the start of the season, isn’t as bad as some fans like to think, but it doesn’t quite match what the Royals have. Jeurys Familia has been outstanding this season, and even better in the playoffs. While Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard have been pretty good, the options behind them aren’t quite as scary as what the Royals have.
Advantage: Royals
* * * * * * * * * *
The Royals are probably the most complete team in baseball and will be the biggest challenge yet for the Mets. The Royals combine the best defense, the best bullpen, and a pretty good offense to make them the class of the American League. They’ve certainly faced some challenges so far in the playoffs, but there is a reason why they are back in the World Series for the second straight year. They aren’t going to blow teams out of the water with home runs like the Blue Jays or Cubs, but they excel in close games. They can steal bases when they need to. They almost never blow a late lead. They are built to win in the postseason. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this series went seven excruciatingly-close games.
