22
2012
Wilmer Flores Is No Miguel Cabrera
An article by Craig Lerner
Jim Callis and a couple of other Baseball America writers took questions yesterday in their ?Top 100 Prospects Chat. You can read the entire transcript here.
Here’s a few questions they fielded about the Mets followed by my thoughts:
Jim, an org ranking question – about where would you rank the Mets’ farm system? I remember reading you wrote 10-15 but based on this list it seems like they’ll be more 20-25.
Jim Callis: I always seem to estimate high during the season. They were No. 24 in our preliminary rankings in the Prospect Handbook, and the A’s will move ahead of them after all their trades and the Cespedes signing.
Was Jeurys Familia any close to making the list?
Jim Callis: One of the eight editors voted him in their Top 100, and two others listed him in their 101-150 range. So not particularly close for Familia. …
Didn’t Wilmer Flores make the list – what happened to him? Is he the NEXT Miguel Cabrera?
J.J. Cooper: He’s not the next Miguel Cabrera. At Flores’ age, the current Miguel Cabrera was a solid big leaguer, Flores is looking to get out of high Class A. The bat isn’t as special as we once thought, and although he’s listed as a shortstop, there’s a decent chance he ends up at first base long term.
Regarding Flores, let me expand on what Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper said. This is what I believe happened:
His Youth: Too many scouts and minor league experts were giving Flores a little too much credit for usually being one of the younger players at each level. So on top of the normal expectations for any prospect, Flores stood out because he was a 17-year old competing against 19-20-year olds. I guess that’s okay to do for the first couple of years, but at some point the player has two stand and deliver on his own two feet, and the fact of the matter is that he owns the numbers he was putting up.
His Position: Another thing that made Flores’ production stand out was that he was playing at the shortstop position – where great offensive talents are hard to come by. Now most scouts knew the chances were slim that Flores would stick at short, but it was in the Mets best interest to keep trotting him out there to boost his value. That experiment is now over and Flores has already begun the transition to third base where a .689 OPS falls far short of expectations. There’s nothing to get excited about here.
His Development: The third thing to consider is how negligible his improvement has been over the years. The power everyone expected to emerge never materialized, and suddenly those Miguel Cabrera comparisons faded away along with Flores’ top billing as the Mets best prospect. In 559 PA last season for St. Lucie, Flores hit just nine home runs to go with a .380 SLG, the worst showing in his four minor league seasons – and at a level he was repeating.
Bottom Line: I’m sorry to break it to you, but this is the resume of a fringe player at best. The age argument doesn’t explain his lack of improvement over the years.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data systems engineer who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. My girlfriend and I go to about 15 games a year. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go. I bleed blue and orange.
17 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 26 | 17 | .605 | - |
| Braves | 26 | 18 | .591 | 0.5 |
| Marlins | 24 | 19 | .558 | 2.0 |
| Mets | 23 | 20 | .535 | 3.0 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 5.5 |
Last updated: 05/23/2012
Recent Comments
- Des: on Around The League: This Week In Baseball: Satish -- Your new column is...
- Des: on The Saga That is the Binghamton Mets and the PDC: For the sake of the CitiField Mets...
- Des: on Why The Ike Davis Decision Must Be Made By Thursday: Metsie -- We know what he should...
- Nathan: on Around The League: This Week In Baseball: I got rid of all my gameing...
- Just Some Internet Guy You Dont Know: on Why The Ike Davis Decision Must Be Made By Thursday: Valley fever took out Conor Jackson...you never...
Write Your Own Mets Post
I’ve learned one thing from these international free agent signings that end up being tabbed the Mets next great prospect. Flores will end up like F-Mart in a couple of years. At best he looks like a weak hitting utility player who doesn’t even have a defensive position he’s good at.
Another one bites the dust.
comparing him to Miggy was a stretch anyway. I thought that was more of trotting out an example of a guy that did not do much at a young age 9but relatively high level for that age) but then exploded after that.
still, it is silly to expect a guy to be a productive ML by age 20 or else he is a washed up bust.
Of course Flores needs to show development at this point, and turn tools into production on the field, but he could spend the next 3 years in the minors and still come up at a relatively young age.
So maybe he never lived up to the THM hype, so just ignore him and let him play in the minors to see what he can become. Put him at 3B and let him learn
He’s 20 years old. Let him develop. It was insane pushing a 16 year old through 3 different levels in one season.
And straight up player comps are horribly unfair. No one is going to be the next Cabrera/Reyes/ Pujols. Let him be Wilmer Flores, whatever that ends up being.
No8 more 16 year old signings. It is too long a projection with too little history
Relatively cheap signings. Also, that plan only works if the other 29 teams agree. Why on earth would they?
The problem isn’t signing 16 year olds (there are other problem tied to that). the problem is hype and improper development.
The reason to go into the IFA area whole hog is for the type of production guys like Pedro Martinez, Pedro Guerrera, David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Miguel Caberera can give you.
That plus a few other competent starters in addition to your drafts can get you can get you a full team built up over just a 6 year period with plenty of guys available to trade for where your prospects haven’t hit.
Our results with Fern, Flores and Pena to date are just a reflection of not having signed enough guys and a few of them are among the best prospects this team has in Mejia, Familia, Flores, Lagares and Valdespin (signed at 19) There’s also some others in Urbina, Tapia, Cordero, Aderlain Rodriguez, Armando Rodriguez, Luis Mateo and Jose Garcia.
Arguably the only strength that this farm has is in it’s depth and you take away those guys and we wouldn’t have any hope for years and years and it’s not like our drafted prospects have come up here well polished and ready to contribute either.
Properly developing any of our prospects has been a systematic failure for 25 years now with just a couple of exceptions here and there.
i hae no objections to IFA signings–just signing of 16 year olds. We don’t sign American 16 year olds. It is enough of a crap shoot grabbing a high schooler from the USA. Why shouldn;t those kids go to school, play a little more, and have more of a bhistory to evaluate?
The labor and education laws in the US are different than some of these other countries.Also, the economic factors play a huge role.
In the US, you have organizations like the AAU and NCAA to work on players.
I don;t care what their laws are. The Major Leagues are here. what it amounts to is greedy GMs preying on underage players. most of them fail.
I agree with the general consensus here. Be patient with the kid and let him develop. Just out of curiosity, I looked up Flores’ numbers on Baseball Reference across ages 17-19:
Age 17 (A): .264/.305./.332, 3 HR, 36 RBI
Age 18 (A & A+): .289/.333/.424, 11 HR, 84 RBI
Age 19 (A+): .269/.309/.380, 9 HR, 81 RBI
For the sake of comparison, I took a look at two other guys:
Player A:
Age 17 (Rookie and Low-A): .259/.338/.347, 2 HR, 28 RBI
Age 18 (A): .268/.328/.382, 7 HR, 66 RBI
Age 19 (A+): .274/.333/.421, 9 HR, 75 RBI
Player B:
Age 17 (Rookie): .331/.433/.423, 0 HR, 27 RBI
Age 18(Low-A & A+): .350/.382/.436, 1 HR, 44 RBI
Age 19 (A+): .294/.366/.409, 11 HR, 86 RBI
Player A seems like he’s comparable to Wilmer Flores. Player B seems like he’s a better pure hitter than both Player A and Wilmer Flores. Player A is Miguel Cabrera. Player B is Edgardo Alfonzo. In other words, the jury is still out on Wilmer, as it was on Miggy and Fonzie at the same age. A lot can happen in the next few years, as the career paths of Cabrera and Alfonzo over the past decade or two show us.
Flores’ talents (if they develop) won’t be needed on the big league level until 2014 or so anyway. If he arrives sooner than that, it’ll only be a bonus. In the meantime, we should cut him some slack and let him develop at his own pace.
The only difference with Alfonzo was he could’ve remained at SS if it wasn’t for Rey Ordonez. Alfonzo’s numbers as a SS would’ve been Jeteresk.Alfonzo was a superior defender compared to Flores who’ll probably be nothing more than an average defender no matter where they stick him. Flores may still become a very good offensive player. He doesn’t have to be a Cabrera clone. If he becomes Alfonzo with the bat and an average defender,I’ll take it.
“If he becomes Alfonzo with the bat and an average defender,I’ll take it.”
Funny thing is that’s where I started when I looked them up on Baseball Reference. I was thinking the same thing and figured Flores’ numbers wouldn’t compare to Cabrera’s but would be similar to Alfonzo’s. I wanted to look up the numbers first so I had evidence before I got ripped for being too optimistic even comparing Flores to Fonzie.
I was surprised to find Cabrera’s and Alfonzo’s minor league stats to be the other way around and how similar Cabrera’s stats were to the numbers Flores has put up the past three years. It almost seems like something clicked for Cabrera when he turned 20 and everything came together at that point. We can hope the same happens for young Wilmer but I agree, even if he repeats Fonzie’s time with the Mets, I won’t be disappointed.
I always thought Edgardo Alfonzo was older than he was listed. Still one of my all time favorites but his young numbers have to at least be considered in that light.
Flores has 3 chances, 3B, LF, RF. He does play an awful lot of baseball. Full season ball stateside and all season long in Venezuela. He also looks like he doesn’t work out very much. maybe just a break from the game and and a rigorous off season conditioning program would be beneficial. Or maybe he’s doing both who knows. Baseball is a tough game and sometimes the harder you try………
The winter league team he plays for is La Isla Marguerita which is a real party spot for vacationing Venezuelans which wouldn’t be the worst place to play but still and all if your 20 and have a couple of Bolivars…….
Kingsport, Brooklyn and Savannah at 16 is just idiotic. He should have been learning skills either in the Met camp in the DR or extended ST stateside. I really think that Wilmer’s apparent stagnation is at least partly due to zooming him instead of grooming him which for a team with so many weak spots year after year is really inexcusable.
He’s on the 40, has good hands and a good arm, has always been a good RBI guy which means he at least doesn’t shrink in those situations and is only 20 years old. No choice but to do everything possible to prepare him over the next couple of years and that might mean having him skip Winter ball. He’s been playing 11 months a year since he was 16.
I’ve read that the constant playing is one of the reasons for the perceived increase in pitcher injuries. They never get to rest for a few weeks. I know they played winter ball in the Good Old Days That Never Actually Happened, but not to the extent players do these days.
Between regular season, spring training, fall ball, winter ball and off season training regiments, guys don’t have a chance to heal and rest up for the coming year.
a guy from BASEBALL AMERICA, shocker.. i am sure if flores put up good numbers and show character and posied he’ll be in the BA topp 100 next year replacing one of the guys the screw the pooch on.. baseball america and the people working there are shooting darts in the dark and see if they hit or miss.. it’s pathetic.. justin smoak was the next teixeira, yeah, go and tell seatle that who traded an ACE for a BUM!!!!!!!!!!!
Flores not the next Cabrera? No surprise there. From what I’ve seen of him, maybe he will show power, but NOWHERE near Miggy’s level of power. Miggy’s SLG improved as he progressed. Flores hasn’t. When he puts up past .424 SLG in A-ball, then we’ll get somewhere.