As part of their sixth installment in a 30-team analysis this offseason, FanGraphs recently revealed its 2020 ZiPS projections for the Mets’ roster.

For those unfamiliar, ZiPS is a predictive system first introduced by Dan Szymborski in 2004 that uses growth and decline trends for groups of players in order to predict their stats for the upcoming season. These groups are distinguished based on age, injury data, pitch velocity, and other role-dependent metrics, and the model weighs most heavily for a player’s most recent season within their last 3-4 years. ZiPS is widely regarded as one of the more accurate player projection models in baseball today (more detailed info can be found here).

Though largely contingent on both the left-field play share between Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis and the general availability of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets’ outfield is still expected to benefit from a healthier Brandon Nimmo, who is expected to amass a 114 OPS+ and .183 ISO (fourth and fifth-best in the lineup, respectively). What’s more, Jake Marisnick‘s 1.0 fWAR as the team’s fourth outfielder would be twice as valuable as Juan Lagares‘ 0.5 in the same role.

Defense will still largely suffer, however, as Davis (even with little-to-no role at the hot corner) and Wilson Ramos‘ tied defensive value of -6 rank below all other regulars. Amed Rosario‘s -3 at shortstop isn’t particularly encouraging, either, especially relative to the -1 ZiPS had in store for him just a year prior.

Perhaps less encouraging, ZiPS is projecting further decline for Robinson Cano, who, plagued by chronic underperformance and recurrent lower body maladies, posted his lowest OPS (.736) since 2008 and second-lowest DRS (-6) since 2009. Cano is expected to garner just 377 plate appearances this coming season (54 less than Luis Guillorme) and just a 1.0 fWAR (below both Cespedes and Jed Lowrie). Cano’s productivity may slow to a point where he will retire before eclipsing 3,000 hits – despite needing just 430 hits over the final four years of his contract.

The starting rotation remains a force to be reckoned with, despite losing Zack Wheeler: Noah Syndergaard and his 3.12 FIP are poised to recover, and Marcus Stroman‘s 2.7 fWAR could suffice out of the third slot. ZiPS highlights southpaw prospect David Peterson as a possible difference-maker, as Szynborski writes that he’s “already in the same tier as Wacha or Porcello.” All told, Peterson’s projected 1.5 fWAR could easily rival the 1.6 posted by the team’s fourth and fifth arms in Steven Matz and Rick Porcello, respectively.

On another bright note, ZiPS seems to anticipate a bounce-back season from the Mets’ bullpen, most notably in the cases of closer Edwin Diaz and setup man Jeurys Familia. Diaz, in particular, who allowed 2.3 HR/9 and a .377 opponent BABIP, is expected to gravitate closer to his more impressive figures the prior three seasons with Seattle – most notably a 2.77 FIP (the lowest on the team) and 135 ERA+. Daniel Zamora (10.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.51 FIP) may also be one to watch among the Mets’ taxi squad.

Despite adding no more than Michael Wacha (or, depending on your definition of adding, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman) – whose .942 opponent OPS out of the Cardinals’ bullpen inspire little confidence anyway – the Mets’ relief corps projects to finish 2020 with a combined 5.0 fWAR from their bullpen – a drastic improvement from the 0.7 they compiled in 2019. Among the first six teams analyzed by Szymborski, only the San Diego Padres (5.4) project to get more out of their bullpen.

Among other potentially noteworthy projections, ZiPS anticipates 43 homers and 108 RBI from Pete Alonso and a solid 31 and 96 from Michael Conforto. Conforto’s .361 OBP will also finish second, in this case behind Nimmo’s .365. J.D. Davis’ .265/.324/.462 line foreshadows some heavy regression, as does Dominic Smith’s .253/.310/.413. Rick Porcello and Jacob deGrom will tie for the team lead with 12 wins apiece (though deGrom will strike out 71 more batters and allow 7 fewer long-balls), while the rotation’s start count ranges from 27 (Steven Matz) to 30 (Noah Syndergaard) starts.