Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Approaching the final month of the regular season, the New York Mets remain in the hunt for the National League East Division title and are currently in a three-team race for that playoff spot, although their chances of winning this competition don’t appear to be favorable right now as they’re struggling to shake this current slide.

With the Mets unable to generate consistent offense throughout the majority of this season, there’s been added pressure placed on the pitching staff to carry the load, and unless they’re able to break this trend in the near future, there probably won’t be any relief coming for the club’s hurlers. In particular, the starting rotation has been forced to operate with very little margin for error, which hadn’t become a serious issue up until recently.

Since ace Jacob deGrom has been shut down until September, his departure from the team’s rotation has since created a massive void that’s impossible to fill, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to return to action before this season concludes. As a result, starters like Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman are being counted on to help lead this staff, but two-thirds of this group hasn’t been performing up to those high expectations.

Plagued by the long ball, Walker has fallen victim to allowing a concerning number of home runs over the last month or so, causing the 29-year-old to become unreliable and preventing him from pitching deep into games. Taking a positive step during his latest start, the right-hander only allowed one run – a solo home run – and struck out eight batters over 6 2/3 innings, potentially signaling he’s starting to turn a corner.

As for Carrasco, the 34-year-old was expected to be a major contributor for the Mets after being acquired in a blockbuster deal over the off-season, unfortunately, he suffered a torn hamstring in spring training and missed the first four months of the campaign.

Following a trio of rehab outings in July, management decided it’d make more sense for the 6’4″ hurler to finish building up his stamina in the majors, especially since this team was desperate to fill deGrom’s rotation spot. Despite being on a very strict pitch count, the veteran starter still proved to be effective and made a positive impact over his first two starts in blue pinstripes.

Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Making his highly-anticipated debut at the end of July, Carrasco compiled 8 1/3 innings over those first two appearances, allowing eight hits, just three earned runs, one home run, one walk, while striking out nine of the 34 hitters he faced.

At the time, things were seemingly pointing upwards for the 2017 American League Cy Young Award contender, however, his production has hit a major snag over his last two starts as opposing batters haven’t endured any issues creating plenty of damage against him. Granted, his outing on Aug. 10 ended prematurely due to poor weather conditions, but that doesn’t take away from the three-run home run he allowed in the first inning.

Failing to build off his early success, the former international free agent has totaled just 3.0 innings over his last two outings, surrendering 10 hits, 10 earned runs, four home runs – including three of them in his latest start – and a pair of walks. Additionally, he’s also only registered three strikeouts during this same span.

Considering this current stretch is arguably the most important of 2021, as it could potentially have a major impact on the Mets’ playoff chances, it’ll be crucial for Carrasco to bounce back strong through the rest of August and also enjoy a very productive final month of the season, too.

It goes without saying, the native of Venezuela is a key member of New York’s pitching staff, and if deGrom doesn’t end up returning in September, they’ll desperately need him to return to the same player that posted a 2.91 ERA and a 1.5 fWAR rating over just 68.0 innings last season. That being said, accomplishing this feat probably won’t happen overnight and will likely require some key adjustments to his craft.

So how can Carrasco return to his previous form? For starters, he’ll need to be much more effective at keeping balls in the yard while also improving his strikeout totals, which has seen his strikeout rate drop from 29.3% in 2020 to just 21.8% in 2021.

One of the best ways “Cookie” can achieve these goals is to make some much-needed improvements to his mid-90s fastball, an offering that’s been utilized a career-low 25.7% of the time this season. Just one season ago, he threw his heater 34.7% as it served as one of his primary weapons against both righties and lefties.

Since Carrasco’s four-seamer ranges between 92-95 mph, it’s become vital to locate his primary fastball effectively, and for the most part, he’s done exactly that throughout his career. Having said that, he’s been unable to execute that strategy upon returning from the injured list, causing one of his most reliable pitches to be left in very hittable locations.

Here’s where Carrasco’s four-seamer has been located in 2021:

Historically, the front-line starter has been much more successful when his fastball is positioned away from the heart of the strike zone and on the edges of the plate. But since that hasn’t been the case this season, opposing hitters have excelled against his heater, resulting in a .667 AVG, .381 xAVG, 1.333 SLG, .821 xSLG, .812 wOBA, .542 xwOBA, 101.6 mph average exit velocity and two home runs surrendered.

In comparison, here’s where Carrasco’s four-seamer was located in 2020:

In the past, Carrasco’s four-seamer allowed him to induce decent amounts of ground balls and strikeouts, but due to his lack of command, he’s witnessed a significant decline in both of those areas over his first four starts of the campaign. After recording a 36.6% GB rate and a 22.2% strikeout rate in 2020, the veteran righty has only produced a 14.3% GB rate and an 18.2% strikeout rate in 2021.

Making matters worse, the finesse hurler’s fastball hasn’t been generating nearly as much horizontal movement as it has in previous campaigns, as it’s averaged just seven inches of break this season compared to 8.8 inches of break during the 60-game season.

The good news for Carrasco is he’s started to regain some of the spin on his fastball, which has produced a career-worst 2,195 RPM average spin rate in 2021. After posting a 2,154 RPM average spin rate in his first start, he’s continued to progress in this department and climbed to a 2,222 RPM average spin rate during his most recent outing.

So even if he isn’t capable of adding additional side-to-side movement on his four-seamer, which averaged a career-best 12.9 inches of break in 2017, the 12-year MLB veteran could make some late-season improvements by adjusting the location of his heater and continuing to increase the amount of spin it generates.

With the Mets scheduled to take on two power-house teams from the NL West Division over the next week and a half, in the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants, now is the time for someone to step up and help deliver some key victories. Though that responsibility won’t fall on just one player, receiving some dominating performances from the starting rotation could certainly spark this team.

Barring some miracle regarding deGrom’s health status, the onus will likely be on Carrasco to emerge and lead this pitching staff down the stretch, making his next few starts some of the most important performances of his career.