Could there be baseball in our near future? A week ago, it did not seem possible. Now, there is at least a degree of hope.

Earlier this week, MLB and the MLBPA met on consecutive days to try to make progress on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). To the surprise of many, those sessions were productive, as both sides made concessions and even agreed on a new idea for compensation of pre-arbitration eligible players.

Further on the point above about the agreement in principle to change the compensation model for a select pool of pre-arbitration eligible players, consider this from Evan Drellich in The Athletic.

Tuesday though, the second straight day of talks between MLB and the MLBPA, was a little different. MLB made a proposal based around a concept the union itself had introduced: creating a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players. This would bring new money, funded by MLB’s central revenues, to young players who perform well. One criterion for a bonus would be a top finish in wins above replacement rankings.

The issue that remains is how much MLB would commit to the bonus pool from its central revenues. The union has asked for $105 million, and MLB has offered $10 million. Yes, that’s a big gap. However, they do agree on the compensation structure, and the union appears to have dropped its request for arbitration to be available to players sooner than three years of service time.

A monetary gap, once there is philosophical alignment, should be fairly easy to bridge. There will be expanded playoffs, hence the owners will have more television money in 2022 than they have had in previous years. So, they figure out the delta between postseason revenues in 2021 and the expected increased revenues in 2022, and find a way to equitably share the additional revenue.

For context, according to Maury Brown in Forbes, in 2022 all national television revues in MLB (regular and postseason) will add to approximately $2.056 billion (without an increased postseason). Add more postseason games, and assume that number grows by 5%, or $100 million. A spilt of that is $50 million in the bonus pool, and the gap the two sides have ($95 million) is cut in half.

If the players and owners can agree on pre-arbitration compensation (they still differ on the minimum salary, but that should be resolved quickly), it will be the second of five major points in the “win” column (they have aligned on keeping free agency at six years of service time). Agreeing on expanded playoffs (which will likely land at 12 teams) is implied in the assumption above, so that would be three of five down. They agree that tanking is bad for the sport (how could they not?), and though specifics have to be worked out, they both feel using a draft lottery will be necessary in the next CBA. That would be four of five done.

The big one, the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold and penalty percentages, still needs to be figured out. While this one may be tricky, agreement in the other four areas will allow for sole focus, and the knowledge they they are close to a deal should propel them to an agreement.

There it is. It can be done. I’m not ready to agree with Contreras that a deal is “all but done”, but I’m getting more comfortable believing that a new CBA can come together before there is a significant impact on spring training.

How about this for a timeline? A new CBA is announced in the middle of next week, in the lull between the chatter about the NFL Conference Championship games and the hype for the Super Bowl. MLB could fill the small gap with a major announcement that will attract the attention of the sports world, and energize the fans for a resumption of the offseason and an imminent opening of camps.

MLB and the MLBPA have made progress. Now is the time to keep the momentum going, and capitalize on the opportunity to have no interruptions in spring training or the regular season. They have a chance to do something to save face, and more importantly, minimize any damage already done in the minds of their paying customers.