Many, including myself, had all but written off Zack Wheeler as gone once the season ended. There aren’t many fans or members of the media who expect Wheeler to accept the qualifying offer as they believe that he declines it and signs a lucrative four-year deal elsewhere in the range of $75-80 million.
However, there is a scenario that keeps Zack Wheeler in a Mets uniform for 2020. That scenario is built around the idea that Zack Wheeler wants to bet on himself.
The 2020 free-agent class is stacked. Wheeler is currently the third maybe fourth-best starting pitching option on the market. With big names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Madison Bumgarner all getting the headlines. With that many options, it’s possible Wheeler’s price gets dragged drown.
It’s also possible that Wheeler ends up in a scenario like Dallas Keuchel last year where he never receivers the offer he thinks he deserves and doesn’t sign. All because of the other top-end pitchers on the market.
This isn’t likely to happen due to Wheeler’s age and recent performance, but it’s a real scenario that many players fear. It’s why Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Nola, Alex Bregman, Luis Severino, Jorge Polanco, Whit Merrifield, Eloy Jimenez, and Brandon Lowe all signed long term below-market value contract extensions last offseason.
On the other hand, the 2021 free-agent class is weak at starting pitcher. Next year’s free-agent class is headlined by Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman. Both of them are good pitchers, but most some would argue that they are actually a tier below Zack Wheeler.
The possibility that Wheeler could be the top starting pitcher on the market next offseason should be an alluring one. It could potentially mean a much larger contract than he could hope to get this offseason. Not to mention that the Mets wouldn’t be able to offer Wheeler another QO next season, so he would have no draft pick compensation tied to him.
If Wheeler were to accept the Mets’ QO it could be a win-win. The Mets get to keep their front-of-the-rotation stater, and Wheeler gets to hit the market in a weaker class next year. If Wheeler reaches his potential and becomes the ace caliber pitcher he’s always had the potential to be, he could turn it into a massive Patrick Corbin-esque contract.
That’s a massive incentive for Wheeler to take the QO and bet on himself. Of course, free agency has become a fear-driven experience for many players. It’s possible that Wheeler, who has a history of injury issues, would rather take the guaranteed security a four-year contract would offer.
This strategy has already paid off for some other players in recent history. Yasmani Grandal didn’t take the QO, but after not finding the right long term contract accepted a large one year deal. He’s now likely to sign one of the largest catcher contracts in baseball history this offseason.
Hyun-Jin Ryu accepted the QO last season and turned in a Cy-Young worthy season. While his age will limit the years he’s expected to get, he’s likely to cash in with a contract in the range of three-years $50-60 million. That’s despite only making 30 starts once in his career, in 2013.
It’s very rare for players to accept the QO. Only six of the previous 79 players offered the QO have accepted it (7.6%) and most of that was before free agency became a barren wasteland that scares players into signing below-market deals.
It’s not likely that Zack Wheeler will sign the Mets’ QO. He will almost assuredly go into free agency and make a higher AAV than the $17.8 million QO.
However, if Wheeler is willing to bet on himself and take a chance, it could prove to make him a ton of money in the future.
