The Mets were only a .500 team through most of the first four months of last year. But the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes changed everything.
The Mets went on a tear after acquiring Cespedes, ran away with the NL East and won the pennant as the Nationals skidded into oblivion.
Had the Mets not traded for Cespedes, they probably would have been on the golf course in October rather than the diamond. And the same will be true this year, as the Mets find themselves in nearly an identical spot as they were in last year: A middle-of-the-road team with an elite rotation that has struggled at the plate.
Sandy Alderson hinted earlier this week that the team will not be looking to make a huge splash, although it’s unclear what the team will actually do. If this holds true, it’s unlikely the Mets will experience an uptick in play like they did last season. And based on the way they’ve played recently, they’re going to need a really, really big uptick.
The mean number of wins for NL second Wild Card teams since its inception in 2012 is 90.75. Let’s say 90 gets you the title. The Mets would have to go 37-24 from here on out to win the second Wild Card. This would mean playing at a .606 winning percentage over the remaining 61 games, far higher than the .524 clip they’ve played at all season.That’s a lot to ask out of a team that’s only 38-41 since May 1.
Much of this malaise stems from the team’s lack of production at the plate. The team has scored the third-fewest runs in all of baseball; only the Phillies and Braves have scored fewer. Since May 1, the team is averaging just 3.4 runs per game. They’re going to need a lot more runs than that if they want to be playing in October.
And this has only gotten worse in recent days. The Mets have averaged only 2.5 runs per game over their last ten games. They’ve scored more than four runs just twice in that span. It looks as though the only way this is going to change is if the Mets acquire a Cespedes-sized bat on the market between now and Monday.
MLB.com currently gives the Mets a 37 percent chance at making the playoffs, with the rival Cardinals at 45 percent and Marlins at 37 percent. Fangraphs gives the Mets a 32.9 percent chance at making the playoffs. These numbers are only going to continue to dwindle if Sandy Alderson and co. opt to stand pat on August 1.
