With the recent news that shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera looks to be ready for opening day in Kansas City, the Mets will have to decide on who they’re bringing north with them, and who’s heading back to Vegas to start the year.
That final roster spot seems to be narrowed down to Matt Reynolds and Eric Campbell, both names Mets fans are familiar with over the past few years. Although I believe that infielder T.J. Rivera should be in the mix for this final spot as well, we’ll stick with Reynolds and Campbell, since they’re both already on the 40-Man Roster. While both players come with flaws and inexperience, I believe that one of them has a clearer shot of making this roster, and being of some value in the upcoming 2016 season.
Let’s examine Eric Campbell and some of his statistics the past few seasons. Campbell, 28, was called up in May 2014 when the Mets demoted Josh Satin, and proved to be a useful fill-in at the corner infield spots. Campbell was an efficient pinch-hitter, going 8-28 in such spots, with a .814 OPS. While his splits won’t overly impress, Campbell was consistent with both righties and lefties, garnering almost identical SLG, OBP, and OPS numbers against the two. Campbell also seemed to thrive in medium to high leverage situations of the game. On Baseball Reference, they had Campbell batting in 48 high leverage situations, normally when the game is late and its close, and he contributed a line of .286/.354/.405 with 10 of his 16 RBIs coming in those spots. His OPS rose to .801 in 88 plate appearances in medium leverage situations, and in lower leverage opportunities his OPS fell to .535. He provided some offense at a time when the Mets were struggling, and created an opportunity for himself.
However, 2015 wasn’t kind to Campbell. In 71 games he slashed .197/.312/.295 for an OPS of .607. He registered well below average OPS+ numbers, 72, compared to his rookie campaign of 96, about league average. Campbell also represented a symbol of Mets futility in the middle of the season, when on July 23rd, Collins ran John Mayberry Jr. and Eric Campbell in the number four and five spots in the order. Some critics would say that Collins wrote that order as a sign to ownership that he needed reinforcements on his roster. Needless to say, the Mets were shut out 3-0 at home, and Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw had a perfect game going into the seventh inning. Campbell was later optioned back to Triple A Las Vegas in August, and was recalled when rosters expanded in September.
Defensively, first base is a much stronger position for Campbell, as he registered a 1.2 UZR in 2014, compared to a -2.2 UZR at third that same year. The 2015 campaign was identical to his rookie year, as he posted a 0.9 UZR at first base, and -2.0 UZR at third. Campbell played some corner outfield both years, and held his own to a tune of a 2.3 UZR combined. Much of the critique holds true for his minor league fielding stats, as Campbell posted far stronger numbers at first throughout his minor league career.
Campbell would be best served backing up Duda against LHP, however, Duda had somewhat of a renaissance last year, hitting .285/.333/.545 against southpaws, all career highs. This news is extremely encouraging, as it allows our cleanup hitter to remain in the lineup without Terry Collins having to shuffle the deck to play the matchups. And if Duda’s 2015 splits weren’t just a flash in the pan, then Campbell doesn’t offer a ton of versatility to this current team.
Which brings us to Matt Reynolds. Drafted in the second round in 2012, Reynolds was a third baseman in college, but shifted to short by the Mets who were lacking viable options in their system at the time. Reynolds, 25, has progressed through the Mets minor leagues, posting high averages, BABIP, and WRC+ in the process. Reynolds would struggle with pulling the ball and striking out a high rate in 2013, and sought the aid of hitting instructor and part-time Mets scout Rick Strickland to help his mechanics. Reynolds put together his strongest campaign in 2014, slashing .343/.405/.454 along with 20 stolen bases between Binghamton and Las Vegas.
Reynolds has been viewed as an average defender at short, making the routine plays and going to his right well. He doesn’t offer a ton of range, and scouts have mostly concurred that Reynolds won’t wow with any particular skill set in his game. Errors have also been an issue with Reynolds, however, he did cut them down to 12 last year in 94 games at short, an improvement from the 16 he had in 104 games in 2014, and the 21 he had in 2013.
However, the Mets need to make a decision based on their current needs. With uncertainly surrounding the number of games David Wright will be able to play this year due to spinal stenosis, I’d foresee Collins using Flores in that role, where his bat can produce and he can hold his own at third. Collins knows the importance of getting Flores comfortable at third again, especially with the frailty of Wright’s back.
“We’re trying to get him as comfortable as we can at third base,” Collins said. “Should anything unforeseen happen to David, we’ve just got to get him ready to play there.”
With the prospects of Flores potentially playing a big role at third for long stretches of the year, the Mets would be in dire need of a backup shortstop to spell Cabrera. Which is why my roster choice would go to Reynolds. He can adequately fill in for Cabrera, and also shift to second to spell Walker against tough lefties, considering Walker had a .575 OPS against LHP as a right-handed hitter last year. Reynolds allows Collins the flexibility of utilizing Flores as a jack of all trades type player, but can also place him at one position for a long period in case of injury. This is why Reynolds makes more sense than Campbell, for the middle infield depth that Campbell cannot provide. Not to mention that Flores’ splits against LHP last year was terrific, posting a .955 OPS in 57 games. Compared to Campbell who posted a .683 and .588 OPS in ’14 and ’15 and it makes the decision a bit clearer.
While Reynolds couldn’t become the answer to a trivia question last year, as to who was the first player to make his debut in the World Series, he can play a vital role in providing solid up the middle defense this year, along with his “grinder” approach as Las Vegas manager Wally Backman describes him as. Reynolds deserves a shot for this Mets roster, just as Campbell deserved his when Satin was demoted and Duda was recovering from food poisoning. The flexibility Reynolds provides up the middle is crucial, but it also allows for Collins to utilize Flores in spots where he can succeed for the short and long term, makes Reynolds my run away choice for the backup infield spot.
