Which Rule 5 Eligibles Will Be Added to Mets’ 40-Man Roster?

Each offseason, teams around the league need to make tough decisions in regards to which Rule 5 draft eligible players will be added to the 40-man roster to ensure they are not taken by another team. This is a lighter group than normal for first year Rule-5 eligibility because the group corresponds to the abbreviated 2020 MLB Draft class. There are, of course, more players in the minor league system that are Rule-5 eligible but aren’t worth mentioning here.

Part of the New York Mets’ decision process will be based on their offseason and whether they are in trade and acquisition mode or are truly targeting 2025 as their next year to compete. If they choose to compete in 2024, player may be left off the 40-man roster and claimed in the draft or could be traded in a bigger deal to avoid losing them for nothing. The number of players on the 40-man roster at the time of the Winter Meetings will also determine the number of players that the Mets will be able to add to the roster.

All in all, while this is speculation, the front office is likely only considering a small group to be added to the roster and is likely doing digging to find out whether prospects will be poached if they choose to keep them off of their 40-man roster.

First Year of Eligibility

Eric Orze

Back in 2021, pundits would’ve predicted that Eric Orze would’ve been a surefire addition to the 40-man roster this winter. However, after two years of struggles in Triple-A and a stagnation in his “stuff” on the mound, he will likely be left off the roster despite his devastating sinker and his strong finish to the season. He has a realistic chance to be drafted this winter.

Prediction: Not Added.

Daniel Juarez

Leaving Daniel Juarez off the 40-man roster may be realistic, but it will still likely leave a bad feeling in the pit of the Mets’ stomachs. He started off the season with 15 scoreless innings in Brooklyn and then posted a 3.22 ERA with an above-average fastball from the left side in 40-plus Double-A innings. Luckily, his tenure in Double-A may not be enough for a team to take a chance on him in the MLB portion of the draft and he will likely stay in the Mets system.

Prediction: Not Added.

Brandon McIlwain

A strong finish to the season made a good case for Brandon McIlwain to be added to the roster or even make a late-season debut. In particular, his skyrocketing walk rate (17.8% in Triple-A) shows his steady plate discipline improvement. While McIlwain will be at MLB spring training and will be a good depth piece for the Mets going forward, if he continues to develop, he will likely be left off the roster. He will be unclaimed due to below-average power production and average strikeout rates.

Prediction: Not Added.

Alex Ramírez

Alex Ramírez also would’ve been pegged to be added to this roster had readers asked experts last season, however, after an up-and-down season, he fell off of MLB’s top-100 prospect list. He is the highest-ranked Mets’ prospect in this article, ranked at No. 11 in the system, but posted a paltry .627 OPS in High-A in 2023. His numbers from this season won’t excite Mets’ fans but will put them at ease when he is left off of the 40-man roster, making him a lock to go unselected.

Prediction: Not Added.

Second Year of Eligibility

Justin Jarvis

Recently acquired from the Brewers for Mark Canha, Justin Jarvis is the most likely Met to be added to the 40-man roster this winter. With an elite fastball with nearly 20″ of vertical break and a solid sweeper and splitter off-speed combo, Jarvis is both developed and near MLB-ready. At No. 15 in the Mets’ system, he will be at big-league camp this spring and will compete for a role as a depth piece in the rotation.

Prediction: Added.

Jeremiah Jackson

After swatting over 20 homers and changing organizations to the Mets, Jeremiah Jackson is certainly a candidate to wind up on the 40-man. He’s currently the No. 22 prospect in the system but still managed just a .248 average and sub-.800 OPS despite his 23 home runs. He hits the ball hard and put up 110 mph-plus exit velocities this season but doesn’t seem to be MLB-ready quite yet.

If it took Ronny Mauricio the whole season to make it to Queens with better numbers in Syracuse, Jackson seems to be a ways off that pace still. He has a small chance to get taken but likely will remain in the Mets system.

Prediction: Not Added.

Joander Suarez

This is probably my favorite pick of the bunch. Joander Suarez was a top prospect, but Tommy John surgery during the 2021 season slowed his rise through the season significantly. He finished the season with a bang, better than anybody else (maybe in history), throwing a no-hitter in the midst of two straight hitless outings. In his final 25 innings, he allowed just one run and six hits. Six hits.

Prediction: Added.

Luis Moreno

If Luis Moreno had continued his 2022 success, he would’ve been a likely addition, however, he was remarkably average in 2023. He had average strikeout and ground ball rates and needs to improve the shape of his curveball. As a sinker and cutter/gyro slider pitcher, he should throw more of a sweeper than a traditional top-to-bottom curveball. His fastball and cutter are both nasty pitches and are above-average MLB offerings, but he needs to improve execution before earning a call-up, as shown by his 4.90 ERA in a hearty 120-plus innings in Double-A. He remains a prospect, but will be left off.

Prediction: Not Added.

Hunter Parsons

Hunter Parsons likely has next to no shot to be added to the 40-man this winter, however, he does have a slim chance to get selected in the Rule 5 draft. He had a solid Triple-A tenure this year with a 26% strikeout rate and better-than-average walk rate. His pitch offerings–particularly his fastball velocity–improved drastically in 2023, and he became a legitimate candidate for an MLB promotion. He should compete for a depth spot in spring training but might change organizations if things go his way.

Prediction: Not Added.

Brendan Hardy

Brendan Hardy has had strong 2022 and 2023 seasons and has the best extension in professional baseball along with solid pitch shapes. His 35%-plus strikeout rate between Brooklyn (High-A) and Binghamton (Double-A) is worth a second glance.

However, a handful of innings in Double-A likely won’t get him over the hump to be a roster addition. Maybe he wows evaluators in the Fall League, but more than likely, he will be an arm to keep an eye on in the upper minors in 2024.

Prediction: Not Added.

Luke Ritter

Luke Ritter‘s power numbers brought him into this conversation, but a late-season injury likely keeps him off the roster. While he pumped 27 long balls and had above-average walk rates, he did have high strike out numbers and was about league-average in Triple-A despite his power prowess.

A lack of a true position makes it difficult to see Ritter getting added to the roster or picked up by another club, even if his bat is MLB-ready.

Prediction: Not Added.

Carlos Cortes

Carlos Cortes has many similarities to McIlwain and likely was in consideration for a September call-up, however, he is likely a “Quadruple-A” depth piece at this point. He ended up with a below-league-average OPS for the International League, even with his better-than-average walk and strike out rates–flashing average power and a low batting average. Without a major speed tool at his disposal as an outfielder, the bat simply won’t be enough to warrant an addition, even with his even platoon splits.

Prediction: Not Added.

Junior Santos

While Junior Santos struggled and was demoted to the bullpen halfway through the year, he still has an elite fastball and intriguing frame at six-foot-seven. He reaches the upper 90 mph range on his sinker, and with a high release height. While he won’t be added to the Mets’ 40-man roster, he might get snagged in the draft

Prediction: Not Added.