On Metsmerized’s Twitter account last week, we posed an interesting question to our followers. We asked them that if faced with a bases loaded jam in the ninth inning with no outs, which Mets closer would they choose to protect a 3-2 lead? Would they pick Tug McGraw, Jesse Orosco, John Franco, or Billy Wagner?
MMO Poll:
It's the bottom of the ninth and the Mets are leading by one run 3-2.
The Braves have the bases loaded and you need three big outs…
Which Mets closer do you turn to?
— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) April 23, 2020
Out of the 1,503 fans that voted, 45.4% picked Wagner. Given that McGraw, Orosco, and Franco each hold a special place in Mets’ lore, Wagner may seem like a surprising pick.
McGraw coined the iconic “Ya Gotta Believe” rally cry, while Orosco record the final out of the 1986 World Series, and Franco set a franchise record with 276 saves in Queens over his 14 year tenure.
Meanwhile, Wagner only pitched four seasons as a Met. He pitched poorly in the 2006 postseason (9.53 ERA), and he missed the end of the 2008 season – and almost all of 2009 – with Tommy John surgery. But when he was on the mound, his overall statistics were exceptional.
Wagner’s strikeout ability is what made him the popular choice in our poll. Wagner struck out 10.9 batters per nine innings with the Mets, which exceeds the other options by a significant margin.
- Wagner: 10.9 K/9
- Orosco: 7.6 K/9
- Franco: 7.6 K/9
- McGraw: 7.0 K/9
In this hypothetical situation, selecting the reliever with the most strikeouts makes a lot of sense. A fly out or groundball can still tie the game, so you want someone like Wagner who will miss a ton of bats. Wagner overpowered hitters with his blazing fastball, even as he pitched into his mid-30’s with the Mets.
Some may say that it’s unfair to compare Wagner against some of these older pitchers. The game was different when the likes of McGraw and Orosco pitched with the Mets. Hitters didn’t strikeout as often in their days, so it’s not surprising to see a reliever from the 2000’s blow them away in the strikeout category.
So, let’s alter the question a little. What if you only had to get one out? Would Wagner still be the choice? For this kind of comparison, ERA+ would be a good measurement. It normalizes a pitcher’s ERA compared to their league average, and Wagner still tops the list.
- Wagner: 180 ERA+
- Orosco: 133 ERA+
- Franco: 132 ERA+
- McGraw 114 ERA+
Keep in mind that these numbers only include their Mets’ careers. Wagner still shines when taking his entire career into account. Throughout his 16-year career, Wagner only recorded one season with an ERA above 2.85. Meanwhile McGraw, Orosco, and Franco have career ERA’s of 3.14, 3.16, and 2.89.
Consistently also sides in Wagner’s favor. He was dominant from start of his career to the end. In his final season at the age of 38, Wagner saved 37 games with a 1.43 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9.
The best argument that can be made against Wagner is how he pitched in the postseason. He allowed 13 runs in 11.2 career playoff innings, while McGraw, Orosco, and Franco enjoyed more postseason success.
Like Orosco, McGraw recorded the final out of a World Series, accomplishing this feat with the Phillies in 1980. Franco also posted a 1.88 ERA in 14.1 playoff innings. But a small sample size of 11.2 poor innings from Wagner shouldn’t overshadow how excellent he was for his entire career.
When looking at the overall numbers, Wagner appears to be the best choice. But do you agree with MMO’s poll result? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
