Well, the early results are in: the “Seth Lugo Starter Experience, Part II” is going quite well.
The New York Mets resisted inserting the right-hander back into the rotation in recent years when it would’ve made sense because he’s been such a huge piece of the team’s bullpen. However, injuries, opt-outs, and lack of performance from other rotation members finally forced it to happen in 2020.
Based off Lugo’s production through his first three turns in the rotation, he’s been more than ready for this challenge.
Now that he’s getting to the point where his arm is stretched out, Saturday’s start against the Philadelphia Phillies was as close as the real thing we’ve seen from him. He allowed just one run on four hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts in five innings, earning the win.
Although the workload types are very different, Lugo’s reliever innings and starter innings for this season are virtually the same (10.1 out of the ‘pen, 11.2 out of the rotation). Since his ERA has found a way to improve since becoming a starter again (1.54, 2.61 as a reliever), I was curious as to whether he’s changed anything in his approach up to this point.
What’s Remained Constant
It takes a ton of work to progress through an MLB organization’s minor league system and reach the show as a starting pitcher. As we’ve seen many times, though, just because they reach the majors as a starter doesn’t mean it stays that way. When young starters get converted to relievers on a full-time basis, it’s not uncommon to see the majority shrink their respective arsenals to only their most effective pitches.
Which, you know, makes sense — if they’re only going to pitch for an inning or two, they might as well throw what works the best.
The first example that comes to mind is the Cincinnati Reds’ Amir Garrett. When he debuted in 2017, he appeared in 16 games and started 14. During that time, he used his fastball, slider, and changeup. He moved exclusively to the bullpen in 2018, and his changeup usage plummeted from 15.5% to 3.5%. He hasn’t thrown it in a game since then.
I’ve always admired that Lugo has resisted doing that as a reliever (and Robert Gsellman). Lugo’s usage rates have fluctuated across the board since 2018, but he’s never wavered from tossing all four pitches in his arsenal (fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup) — even when it looked like he’d never get another chance in the rotation.
Obviously, this was probably because Lugo viewed himself as a starter over the long haul. So far, he should be making the Mets wonder what took them so long in the first place. Although Lugo didn’t drop or add any pitches back into his arsenal upon this recent role change, it’s been interesting to see how his usage of those available offerings have shifted as a result.
What’s Changed Recently
When looking at Lugo’s 2020 pitch usage numbers, a couple things jump out about his breaking pitches. One is that his curveball — with all that elite spin rate — is being tossed just 20.4% of the time, and it’s on pace to drop for the second straight year. The other is his slider usage, which is on pace to rise for the second straight year, as he’s currently throwing it 18.0% of the time.
As you might imagine, these numbers look very different if we break the usage out to Lugo the reliever and Lugo the starter.
Seems like his last start against Philly could be more telling of what he’ll do upon continuing to stretch out, too. His 27.2% curveball usage rate was a single-game season high, while his 12.3% slider usage rate was just the second time that number finished below 17.9% in 2020.
There could be some analytical reasoning behind this while working with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, but whatever the reasoning is, only one thing matters: it’s working.
Lugo has slid back into the rotation from the bullpen as seamlessly as one possibly could. It’s also worth noting that while his curveball strikeout rate is currently 10 percentage points lower than where it finished last year, opposing hitters have mustered just a 4 wRC+ against it (40 in 2019).
There are still some hurdles for Lugo to jump through again as a starter. His most recent five-inning performance was significant because it (mostly) resembled what a regular start will look like. Now, we’ll see how he performs against opposing lineups while continually seeing them multiple times throughout the same outing.
What happens as the season progresses over the final few weeks will be intriguing to follow, as hitters will adjust to the righty, and also watching how he will adjust back. It’s just good to see him finally getting a second chance in the rotation, and taking full advantage of it.
