What to Make of the Jacob DeGrom Situation

With live games underway, and a brand new roster full of new faces and acquisitions, you would think the main talking point of the 2019 New York Mets would be how all these new faces can fit in with the roster, and how the team can compete in a loaded division.

However, that is not the case. Whenever you turn on the TV or radio and the Mets are the topic there is one thing that’s being discussed: Jacob deGrom and his looming extension.

As one of the bigger Mets fans in my group of friends, I get asked alot what I think will end up happening, and just overall what to make of this whole situation. So let’s break down what has already preceded this post, and at the end of this I will give my idea of what could happen with the Mets and Jacob deGrom.

So let’s go to the beginning, and the person who really started this whole “saga”: Brodie Van Wagenen. That’s right, the Mets General Manager. Before being brought on to his current post as GM, he was the agent for the Mets ace, as well as several other players on the roster. But in an interview with Ken Rosenthal last season during the All-Star break that the Mets should either “pay him or trade him”.

“We have discussed Jacob’s future with the Mets at length. Jacob has expressed interest in exploring a long-term partnership that would keep him in a Mets uniform for years to come,” deGrom’s then-agent Brodie Van Wagenen told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. “If the Mets don’t share [the] same interest, we believe their best course of action is to seriously consider trade opportunities now. The inertia of [the] current situation could complicate Jacob’s relationship with the club and creates an atmosphere of indecision.”

The rumors then spun around the media that the Mets would indeed consider trading deGrom, and there was one team at the forefront of practically every rumor: The New York Yankees.

Could the Mets and Yankees really pull off such a deal? Well the Yankees surely had the pieces to persuade the Mets into a deal, with one of the top farm systems in the game; if there was one competitor to make it happen, the Yankees would have been that team. Reports at the time indicated that any deal would have to start with either Gelyber Torres or Miguel Andujar, a price the Yankees were ultimately not willing to meet.

We all then had the pleasure of watching Jacob deGrom finish off one of the greatest seasons ever by a Mets pitcher, ending the season with a 10-9 record, with a 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP with 269 strikeouts and running away with his first Cy Young Award.

That then brings us to the hiring of Brodie Van Wagenen. Once this hiring took place, he had given many the thought and belief that the team will be extending deGrom, but it’s more a matter of “when” and not “if”. Saying many times how he is a player that you want to keep around for his whole career and build your franchise around. Plus, he was the one to say the “sign him or trade him” so if anything an extension would be Brodie quite literally “putting his money where his mouth is.”

This all brings us to the most recent news, that Jacob deGrom and his camp said that they will not talk extension after Opening Day, and that they will have to converse about enforcing a self-imposed innings limit. Now to me the Opening Day thing is a non-issue and I think it is nothing but customary for a player to want to focus on the season and not worry about an extension, especially with it not being the final year of his deal.

I am also taking a bit of a “wait and see” approach when it comes to the innings limit. Do I think it can actually happen? Of course. But lets say its mid-August and we’re two games out of a playoff spot, but he’s 15 innings away from his “limit”, you think deGrom is going to let that opportunity pass because of this? I doubt it.

So what could a solution be? Well I have thought about it and we are at the point where I can foresee three possible outcomes: The Mets follow the current trend in the MLB an extend their franchise player this year; No deal gets done in 2018, however, get an extension reached after the 2019 season; Or, Jacob deGrom gets traded.

Of the three possibilities I believe the least likely of the three is the option of a trade. A pitcher of Jacob deGrom’s quality will certainly draw plenty of interest, and there are teams that have the prospect packages, and money in future payroll to make a deGrom trade make sense. Teams like the Reds, Padres, Astros and the Yankees can still offer a package of players that could justify trading a top-5 pitcher in the game. However, I only see this happening if it gets to a point where both camps agree no extension will happen and/or deGrom demands a trade. Both of which I don’t see happening.

Over the past few weeks, we have seen many teams go out and extend some of their best players with multiple years left of team control (Aaron Nola, Luis Severino, Aaron Hicks, Miles Mikolas, Whit Merrifield, etc), and it is certainly possible the Mets follow the trend and lock in deGrom with two years of team control left. 

Given with the aggressiveness that Brodie Van Wagenen has shown is his first year as GM, plus the prior relationship he has with deGrom, I cannot rule out the possibility that he decides to negotiate a long-term deal before deGrom takes the mound for Opening Day.

Of the three options, I believe the most likely possibility is deGrom pitches through the 2019 season without an extension. That being said, I think an extension gets agreed upon and signed before the 2020 season. Everyone expects nothing but the best from deGrom, and I expect that he will once again lead our staff and be in contention for another Cy Young award, and the Mets and deGrom will quickly get to work on an extension.

If I make take it upon myself to make a prediction: An extension will be announced at next year’s Winter Meetings (Dec. 8-12) and it will be a four-year, $95 million extension with a fifth year player option worth another $18 million. This gives him the security his age-36 season (if option is exercised) and will be in the top-10 for pitchers in terms of AAV with his deal at $22.6 million. With a large amount of money coming off the books within the next couple years, this can allow the Mets to keep their ace without completely killing the team’s future payroll.