What Position Should The Mets Prioritize To Finish The Offseason?

The New York Mets have had one of the busier offseasons in Major League Baseball under the first year of the Steve Cohen era in Queens.

While Cohen has the ability to outspend any other team and does not necessarily need to worry about the luxury tax threshold, Cohen is not planning on simply overspending to sign all the top free agents.

“As a fan they want me to sign everybody tomorrow, but is that a sustainable strategy?” Cohen said in a Dec. 23 interview with Howie Rose. “Ultimately you want to develop talent. You want to develop your farm system. To me that is the most sustainable way to create a winning team year in and year out.”

The Mets have about $32.2 million before the luxury tax (something Jared Porter said isn’t a hard line) and 73 days remaining until Opening Day. With all that in mind, it’s unrealistic to expect the team to fill the rest of the team’s weaker positions with the top talent in baseball.

That begs the question of which position should be the number one priority for Cohen, Porter and Sandy Alderson.

Four areas the Mets could seek to improve on based on the performance in 2020 are the rotation, third base, center field and bullpen. Which is the most important?

Starting Rotation

The answer to this question at the beginning of the offseason would have been rotation. In the shortened 2020 campaign, the Mets suffered from one of the weakest rotations they’ve had in years.

While Jacob deGrom was still one of MLB’s top pitchers, there was a clear drop off after his spot in the rotation.

David Peterson quickly went from not being in the Mets’ rotational plans to being their second-best starter in the rotation. However, after Peterson was an even bigger drop off.

Twenty-nine of the remaining 39 games were started by Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, Steven Matz and Robert Gsellman, who combined for a 0.8 fWAR and -1.6 bWAR across all their appearances in 2019 (29 starts and six relief appearances).

While there would be a lot to worry about in regards to their starting pitching if that was how the rotation was going to look come Opening Day, there have been some improvements.

The rotation was first improved when Marcus Stroman, who opted out of the 2020 season, returned to the team on a qualifying offer. The rotation also got some help a couple of weeks ago when Mets acquired Carlos Carrasco in their blockbuster trade with Cleveland.

While the rotation may not be considered a strength compared to years past, it’s no longer a glaring weakness. DeGrom, Carrasco, Stroman and Peterson are a good 1-2-3-4 combo. A question still remains around Matz who suffered the worst season of his career in 2020. However, in the event Matz cannot hold the fifth spot, they’d hopefully only need to patch it until Noah Syndergaard returns in the summer.

The Mets rotation could benefit from signing another affordable starter to help the fifth starter position, but it’s not the team’s biggest priority.

Third Base

The Mets could use an upgrade at third base, but it should not be their biggest priority either.

J.D. Davis was a fan favorite in his first season with the Mets in 2019 as he surprisingly became a productive bat in their order.

Davis hit .307/,369/.527 with 65 runs scored, 22 doubles, 22 home runs and 57 RBIs in 140 games. However, he was only worth a 2.4 fWAR and 1.0 bWAR due to his struggles on the defensive side of the ball.

In 2020, Davis took a step back offensively as he hit .247/.371/.389 with 26 runs scored, nine doubles, six home runs, and 19 RBIs in 56 games. While his defense improved slightly, his overall value took a hit and he finished the season with a 0.5 fWAR and 0.1 bWAR.

In an ideal world, the Mets would sign a third baseman who can have success on both sides of the ball. However, when one considers the Mets’ other needs, their current lineup strength and the already improved infield defense with the additions of Francisco Lindor and James McCann, they can survive with Davis at third.

If his defense becomes a big issue, they have the option of moving Jeff McNeil to third and Luis Guillorme to second to really solidify the infield defense.

Center Field

Signing George Springer has been at the top of many Mets fans’ wish lists this offseason.

Springer would give the Mets one of the most feared offenses in the game, especially after the acquisition of Lindor. Furthermore his presence would have a domino effect on their defense as it would give them a bonafide center fielder and allow Brandon Nimmo to move from center to left where he plays better defense.

However, after acquiring Lindor, thoughts on Springer have been split. Some Mets fans would rather see the Mets allocate their addition funds on multiple smaller signings, while others would still like to see Springer in orange and blue despite the implications it would have on the payroll.

Signing Springer now would almost definitely put the Mets over the luxury tax threshold. While it’s not the be all, end all with Cohen as owner (especially since it would only be a first-time overage), that would put the Mets in a precarious situation if they want to extend the likes of Lindor and Michael Conforto.

It also remains to be seen how big of a domino effect signing Springer would actually have on the team’s defense with the lack of clarity on MLB’s 2021 rules. As of now, teams have been told to prepare for the season without the universal designated hitter. While it’s still possible for a universal DH to be implemented for the 2021 season, there are no guarantees.

Without a universal DH, the Mets would have Nimmo in center, Dominic Smith in left and Pete Alonso at first. However, if the Mets sign Springer while there is no universal DH, that would push either Nimmo, Smith or Alonso to the bench barring any trades.

Similar to the rotation, a few weeks ago this would be one of the top priorities. However, after the Lindor trade, center field becomes a little bit more bearable.

Bullpen

The Mets biggest priority as they finish out the offseason should be their bullpen.

In 2020 the Mets bullpen was slightly below average. Mets relievers combined for a 4.60 ERA (ranked ninth in the NL and 18th in MLB), 1.45 WHIP (ranked 10th in the NL and 21 in MLB), and 10.03 K/9 (ranked fifth in the NL and eighth in MLB).

As a whole, the bullpen had the potential to be better, but since the rotation was in dire need, the Mets moved Seth Lugo from the pen where he dominates, to the rotation where he’s had his share of ups and downs.

Both Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia were projected for bounce back seasons. Diaz had a strong season, while Familia continued his struggles. With Seth Lugo likely back in the mix full time, it should help take some pressure off both, but it would be tough to completely count on either.

Even moreso of a question mark than Diaz or Familia is Dellin Betances. He had the worst season of his career in 2020, but it was also his first real action since 2018 (besides the 2/3 innings he pitched in 2019). If he can bounce back at all in 2021, it would be a big boost for the Mets bullpen, but he’s another pitcher they can’t have high expectations for.

The Mets are also losing two of their better relievers in 2019 with the likes of Justin Wilson and Erasmo Ramirez. Both gave the Mets some solid innings out of the pen in 2020 and now those innings will have to be allocated elsewhere. While the Mets’ signing of Trevor May helps partially fill that void, he could use some help.

Addressing the bullpen is the Mets’ biggest need right now due to the changes from last season and all the questions surrounding it. The Mets bullpen wasn’t horrible in 2020, but they also had the luxury of expanded rosters to mix, match and patch where needed. They won’t have that luxury in 2020 and to set high expectations for Familia, Diaz and Betances would be unwise.

The Mets were reported to be close to reaching a deal with Brad Hand on Friday. That did not come to fruition, but the Mets should absolutely pursue him. If they can sign him for MLB Trade Rumors’ projection of two years and $16 million, they could also go after a slightly more affordable reliever like Alex Colome (projected one-year, $6 million deal by MLB Trade Rumors) to finish off the pen.

Those two moves would potentially leave them with about $8 million in luxury tax space which they could use to sign Jackie Bradley Jr. (projected two-year, $16 million deal by MLB Trade Rumors) to play center and complete their offseason strong.