What Fangraphs Projections Are Saying About The 2024 Mets

Prior to each season, Fangraphs releases projections for every ballplayer around the major leagues. With those, the baseball sabermetrics website is then able to project specifically how each position group on each team should fair.

What are these said projections saying about the 2024 Mets? Which positions are sources of projected strength? How about weaknesses?

Strengths

The Mets’ projected positional groups that rank in the 10 according to Fangraph’s projections are catcher, first base, shortstop, left field, and center field. Their relief pitcher ranking sits right outside the top 10 at 12th.

The Mets’ catchers check in at No. 7 in the rankings led by Francisco Álvarez and Omar Narváez at a projected 2.7 WAR and 1.2 WAR, respectively. Notably, Álvarez’s projected WAR checks in No. 11 among major-league catchers.

The highest two Mets positional group projections are exactly what you’d think they should be. Francisco Lindor (4.7) and Pete Alonso (3.0) check in with the fifth and 29th-ranked projected WAR figures in the National League, respectively. This results in the Mets’ first base group coming in at No. 6 and the shortstop group coming in at No. 2. Lindor has the highest projected WAR among shortstops in the majors edging the Rangers’ Corey Seager (4.6).

The other two offensive position groups that rank in the top 10 are the left and center outfield positions. A large reason for this is Fangraphs attributing some of Brandon Nimmo‘s projected 3.5 WAR (23rd-highest in the National League) between both left and center. A majority of it is being credited to the left field position, adding it along with Tyrone Taylor‘s and Jeff McNeil‘s figures, it puts New York fourth in the rankings.

As for center field, the Mets check at No. 6. Largely due to Harrison Bader being projected as one of the best defensive center fielder in baseball. Add in solid depth with Tyrone Taylor, and the potential for Nimmo getting center field reps, New York grades out very well in center.

As mentioned, just outside the top 10 is the Mets’ bullpen. Categorizing it as a strength overall is a bit of a reach, however, given Edwin Diaz‘s 2.2 projected WAR is by far the highest in the majors (Jhoan Duran‘s 1.8 ranks second), the bullpen’s projections as whole come in at No. 12. Outside of Díaz, only five Mets relievers own a projected WAR above 0.0 (Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, Phil Bickford, Jorge López, and Michael Tonkin).

Weaknesses

Third base and designated hitter are the two main position groups that Fangraphs’ projected WAR metrics weigh the most negatively for the Mets. Meanwhile, the right field group ranks right above the bottom 10 and both second base and the starters check in at No. 20.

Third base and designated hitter do indeed make the most sense. The Mets check in at No. 21 at third base, with Brett Baty leading the group at a projected 1.6 WAR figure. Mark Vientos follows at only 0.5.

As far as the designated hitters go, the group checks in at No. 26, by far the worst of any of the Mets’ projections. A large reason for this is New York has several players who can factor in to that role. Vientos leads the group with a 0.2 WAR projections while Fangraphs is very bullish on the idea of DJ Stewart who is projected at a 0.0 figure. Others factored in are Francisco Álvarez and Tyrone Taylor.

The Mets’ second base group ranking as low as they do is because Jeff McNeil’s projected 2.7 WAR, which is the eighth-highest in the National League, is split among other positions as well. As for right field, the Mets check in at No. 18, largely because of the uncertainty that is Starling Marte. Fangraphs is projecting 1.4 WAR for Marte in right field.

The last notable projection that aires on the weaker side is the rotation. As mentioned, the Mets’ starting pitcher group checks in at No. 20. The completely revamped grouping is led by Kodai Senga (10th-highest 3.3 WAR projection in the National League) and Sean Manaea. Then, other new additions, Luis Severino and Adrian Houser, both own projected WAR figures above 1.0. Lastly, José Quintana is at 1.7. Also hurting the Mets is their depth being weakly graded as the injured David Peterson leads the group at 0.9 while Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and José Butto are all grouped just above 0.0.

Final Thoughts

Overall, Fangraph’s has pretty average feelings of the 2024 Mets. New York’s total projected position group WAR checks in 10th while their pitcher group checks in at 19th. The WAR projections as a whole put New York 15th, defining them as a fringe playoff team.

These projections are pretty on par with what oddsmakers in Vegas and elsewhere feel about the team. You can read about what the betting odds are specifically saying about New York here. Regardless, several outlets see the team, as currently constructed, as middle-of-the-road.