What Does The Mets’ Rotation Look Like After Carrasco Injury?

Marcus Stroman hit the nail on the head: “It’s devastating.”

The Mets’ rotation is already down Noah Syndergaard, and now Carlos Carrasco will be out at least two months with a “high-grade hamstring tear” based on reports.

Where in previous seasons, the rotation prospects got bleak after one or two injuries (see: 2020’s rotation after injuries to Syndergaard and Stroman), the new front office regime made it a point to address starting pitching depth for this exact scenario. Sure, it sucks the Mets now have 40 percent of their rotation out until June, but the 2021 rendition of the organization has depth that doesn’t flame out after the first injury.

This much we know: Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, and Taijuan Walker are the top three starters on the team. After that, though, there is enough depth that there isn’t an exact answer to who will take the final two spots until Cookie and Thor return. Who are the options? Let’s survey them.

(All spring stats as of the morning of March 19.)

David Peterson

Career stats: 10 G (9 S), 49.2 IP 3.44 ERA (4.52 FIP), 1.208 WHIP, 19.5 K%, 11.7 BB%, 123 ERA+

2020 stats: 10 G (9 S), 49.2 IP, 3.44 ERA (4.52 FIP), 1.208 WHIP, 19.5 K%, 11.7 BB%, 123 ERA+

2021 spring training stats: 2 G, 6.0 IP, 3 R (3 ER), 6 H, 1 K, 2 BB

Peterson, who made his debut last year, had the best 2020 of the upcoming bunch, but he’s also had the rockiest start to his spring training. (Yes, in the games that don’t matter, it still matters if a back-end guy doesn’t pitch very well.)

The former first-round pick gave the Mets consistency in 2020 and was the best starter on the team not named Jacob deGrom, which is a nice card to have in his back pocket when competing for a rotation spot this season. On top of that, Peterson pitched more innings in 2020 than the next four guys on the list combined. In a year where being able to stretch out deeper in games will matter more than it ever has after a shortened 2020 season, that matters, too.

Is it concerning Peterson isn’t missing many bats so far this spring? A bit, but Peterson was also able to find success with an average whiff percentage and low strikeout percentage in 2020.

Joey Lucchesi

Career stats: 59 G (58 S), 299.1 IP, 4.21 ERA (4.21 FIP), 1.1280 WHIP, 24.3 K%, 8.0 BB%, 96 ERA+

2020 stats: 3 G (2 S), 5.2 IP, 7.94 ERA (3.01 FIP), 2.647 WHIP, 15.6 K%, 6.3 BB%, 50 ERA+

2021 spring training stats: 2 G, 5.0 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 7 K, 3 BB

This is the exact scenario the Mets imagined when they acquired Lucchesi from San Diego in January. The team was able to weasel itself into the Joe Musgrove trade and acquire a consistent lefty in the process. (Steven Matz was traded a week later.)

He had a tough 2020 after being sent up and down from the Padres’ alternate site. He never found his footing in the major-league rotation, which all of a sudden featured Mike Clevinger, Zach Davies and a dominant Dinelson Lamet as the season rolled on. He pitched in less than six innings and gave up lots of contact doing so. His walk rate stayed the same, though, and his FIP in such a small sample size sat at 3.01.

Lucchesi’s first two season, though, were really consistent. (In fact, his career ERA and FIP are exactly the same: 4.21.) Over 2018 and 2019, he pitched nearly 300 innings to a 4.24 FIP and 97 ERA+–about league average, and exactly the type of back-end starter you’re comfortable with churning out.

Jordan Yamamoto

Career stats: 19 G (18 S), 90 IP, 6.20 ERA (5.44 FIP), 1.347 WHIP, 19.4 K%, 10.4 BB%, 70 ERA+

2020 stats: 4 G (3 S), 11.1 IP, 18.26 ERA (11.93 FIP), 3.000 WHIP, 24.2 K%, 11.0 BB%, 25 ERA+

2021 spring training stats: 3 G, 8.1 IP, 3 R (1 ER), 7 H, 7 K, 1 BB

You thought Steven Matz had a rough go at it in 2020? Check out Jordan Yamamoto’s stat line. Yamamoto, who the Mets picked up off waivers this offseason, got rocked with the Marlins mostly as a plug-in starter as the team experiences nearly a full month of COVID-19 issues.

The “stuff” has always been there for the 24-year-old, with a myriad of off-speed pitches he uses, but it was difficult to piece it together last season. In 2019, Yamamoto was a league-average pitcher with a 1.114 WHIP and 25.2 strikeout percentage. If he can pitch like that, he’ll slide in wonderfully as a plug-in at the back of the rotation. He’s given up about an average of a base runner an inning over his 8.1 spring innings, and he’ll be given plenty of opportunities over the remainder of spring to earn his spot in the rotation.

Corey Oswalt

Career stats: 23 G (13 S), 84.1 IP, 6.19 ERA (5.67 FIP), 1.423 WHIP, 16.4 K%, 7.5 BB%, 63 ERA+

2020 stats: 4 G (1 S), 13 IP, 4.85 ERA (5.19 FIP), 1.231 WHIP, 20.0 K%, 3.6 BB%, 89 ERA+

2021 spring training stats: 1 G, 2.0 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 5 K, 0 BB

The longest-tenured Met of the bunch, Corey Oswalt has long been a “could he fill in for an injured starter?” candidate since he made his debut in 2018. In fact, that’s basically what he was in 2018, being an occasional fill-in and ultimately a consistent starters once players were traded after the deadline.

He hasn’t shown any success in any of his 13 major-league starts over three seasons, but heads perked in the original 2020 spring training when he showed up a few pounds lighter and throwing his fastball a little faster. Oswalt has essentially been a quad-A player brought up and down from the minors over a dozen times, with just two-month stretch (back in 2018) to show what he can do when starting, which wasn’t much at the time.

His 2021 spring started nicely with a five-strikeout performance in two dominant innings, averaging 93.3 m.p.h. on his fastball–over a mile per hour faster than 2020. His tenure with the team, like it or not, may play into getting a rotation spot if he continues with a nice spring.

Mike Montgomery

Career stats: 183 G (70 S), 541 IP, 3.84 ERA (4.52 FIP), 1.346 WHIP, 18 K%, 8.8 BB%, 111 ERA+

2020 stats: 3 G (1 S), 5.1 IP, 5.06 ERA (4.69 FIP), 1.313 WHIP, 17.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 96 ERA+

2021 spring training stats: 2 G, 2.2 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 2 H, 5 K, 1 BB

Montgomery is probably the least likely of the bunch to open the year in the rotation. This is because the 31-year-old has spent more than half his career in a relief role.

Luis Rojas said the intention is there for Montgomery to be stretched out as a starter (he made 13 starts once traded from the Cubs to the Royals in 2019 and only one start in 2020), however there are three things going on here: 1) he might not be ready to go more than a couple innings come April, 2) he isn’t a part of the 40-man roster when all four of the previous players are, and 3) he doesn’t have any minor-league options, when the other four do.

Montgomery has given up a couple of base runners over his 2.2 spring innings but also has five strikeouts over that span. He’s on the outside looking in, in all likelihood, but a good remainder of spring training–and showing he can last four or five innings, will help.

My Thoughts 

When pondering who will take the two spots, we should first note that there are still 13 days until Opening Day. Now ideally another injury won’t happen, but some points here may become moot if one does. Second, there are still 13 days until Opening Day, meaning any one of these pitchers could blow up during a couple appearances, or one or two could stand out from the pack to make the decision easy for Rojas.

There’s also the caveat that the Mets only play 24 games in the first 29 games of the season, and the way their schedule is set up, they could only need a fifth starter twice during April (on the 15th and 25, by my count). However, the five off-days in April are there for a reason: you don’t want to tax your players–especially starters–that early in the season.

Today, though?

I’d go with the two lefties–Peterson and Lucchesi.

We can hem and haw about forgetting about a small spring or 2020 sample size, like saying a rocky spring doesn’t represent Peterson’s overall abilities or a great spring doesn’t represent Yamamoto’s. This is why I think it’ll come down to who’s been the most consistent at the major-league level, while also having team flexibility, which probably rules out Montgomery (unless he wants to accept an option to the minors).

Ultimately, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Peterson, Lucchesi, Yamamoto, and Oswalt all used at some point as starters over the first month or two given they all have minor-league options and can be sent down and back up again throughout the season.