What Combination of Frontline Starters Best Suits The Mets?

The name of the game for the Mets this offseason is pitching. New York lost three members of its rotation to free agency and now face the task of re-stocking it with frontline talent, which will likely be done through free agency. There are a number of intriguing options, some familiar and some not, that have become targets for the Mets and could theoretically fill that top-of-the-line role for the team in 2023 and beyond. With that being said, let’s take a look at those players and see how they could fit on the roster.

Let’s go through each of the main options individually, starting with Jacob deGrom. In a season where he made just 11 starts due to a stress reaction on his right scapula, deGrom didn’t quite live up to the historic precedent he had set in his prior few campaigns. Of course, that isn’t to say he struggled by any stretch of the imagination in 2022 though, as he recorded a 3.08 ERA to go with 2.2 fWAR, 14.27 K/9 and a 1.54 xFIP in those 11 starts.

From 2018 to 2021, deGrom made 91 starts while racking up 23.4 fWAR to go with a 1.91 ERA, three All-Star nods and two Cy Young awards. It marked one of the more dominant stretches of any player in recent memory and led to him being universally recognized as the best pitcher in baseball. There have been some trials and tribulations as the result of injury since he went down with a UCL sprain in July of 2021, but there’s little doubt about his ability.

The risk in giving out a record-breaking contract to a 34-year-old pitcher that has dealt with durability issues is apparent, but truthfully there should be little hesitation from the Mets in terms of bringing him back. He has proven that he can handle the spotlight and dominate under the bright lights and he also appears to be comfortable in New York. He has cemented himself as one of the greatest players in franchise history, and there is no reason why he shouldn’t be back with the team in 2023 and beyond.

When talking about Justin Verlander’s free agency, there are some interesting parallels to Max Scherzer’s from last offseason. Both were older pitchers coming off of Cy Young-caliber seasons with long track records of success that also were seeking multi-year deals at a high average annual value (AAV). As we know, Scherzer ultimately found a home with the Mets and signed a three-year deal worth $130 million, and perhaps Verlander could follow suit in New York.

Verlander, in 28 starts this season, recorded a 1.75 ERA and 6.1 fWAR en route to both a World Series ring with the Houston Astros and the third Cy Young Award of his prolific career. What makes all of his accomplishments even more remarkable is the fact that he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 at the age of 37 and essentially missed two full seasons before returning and acting like nothing ever happened in 2022.

When talking about his potential contract situation, there are skeptics when it comes to wondering how much longer Verlander can produce at a high level and whether or not giving him a big-money deal would backfire. He will be 40 on Opening Day in 2023 and his recent injury history is a bit concerning, but at the same time his Statcast data remains elite and he has learned to limit both the long ball and walks to combat his decreasing strikeout percentage. Verlander presents the most risk out of any of the high-profile starters in this free agency class due to the contract he will command and his overall profile as it relates to his longevity, but at this present moment, he is one of the best pitchers in the sport.

Carlos Rodón has quickly emerged as one of the better front-line starters in the game. He had a breakout campaign in 2021 with the Chicago White Sox where he recorded a 2.37 ERA to go with 4.9 fWAR and 12.55 K/9. From there, he reached free agency and curiously wasn’t offered a qualifying offer before signing a two-year, $44 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. In 2022, he made 31 starts and produced a 2.88 ERA and 6.2 fWAR and made both his second-consecutive All-Star team and top-six finish in Cy Young voting.

Rodón, who exercised an opt-out in his contract with the Giants, figures to earn the longest-term deal among starting pitchers on the open market due to his age (29) and recent production. He does have a long history of injuries though, as he missed most of 2017 with bursitis in his left biceps and inflammation in his left shoulder before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019. There were also some concerns about his medicals from interested teams heading into 2022, but he was cleared and went on to pitch a full season. There are plenty of reasons to believe that his recent resurgence is for real, and he should be a reliable ace for any team that signs him.

Finally, let’s talk about Kodai Senga. Senga is a Japanese pitcher that has spent part of 11 seasons with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of Nippon Professional Baseball and earned a 2.59 ERA in over 1,000 innings pitched. The 29-year-old is also a three-time NPB All-Star and five-time Japan Series champion while also being selected to represent Japan at the 2017 World Baseball Classic, where he was named to the All-World Baseball Classic team. He has gained notoriety for his velocity, as he has reportedly touched 101.9 MPH with his fastball, as well as his highlight-worthy splitter/forkball hybrid that has aptly been nicknamed the “Ghost Fork”.

Senga, who is coming off of a 2022 season where he recorded a 1.94 ERA, has had a number of suitors, including the Mets, since being posted by the Softbank Hawks. The main question surrounding him is how he will transition into MLB from NPB, as he has had his fair share of control issues and it’s never a sure thing that any player will have a seamless transition into the league. Interested organizations will fall in love with his sky-high potential and experience as an ace in Japan, but those concerns make him a high-risk, high-reward gamble.

The obvious solution for the Mets is to bring back deGrom. There appears to be mutual interest and he simply is the best option on the market even ignoring all of the reasons listed above. If New York can’t convince him to stay in the Big Apple, then pivoting to Verlander or Rodón as their top-of-the-rotation pairing with Scherzer is the most sensible option. We know the Mets have talked to Verlander and Rodón via Zoom and talked to Senga in person.

It’s hard to imagine the Mets ponying up for two of those top-three guys considering just how much payroll would have to be dedicated to the front of the rotation. As a result, bringing in one of them along with Senga is likely the most realistic option, as Senga won’t require the type of monetary commitment that the others would. It’s also possible that the team sees Chris Bassitt as a fit and decides to pair him with one of the other options on the market, and perhaps re-signing both him and deGrom to “run it back” would make the most sense for all involved.

All in all, the need for frontline pitching and the Mets interest in every starter that fits those criteria has opened up several possibilities for how they maneuver this offseason.