The Mets are in a good spot. They’re off to about the same start as last season (22-17 in 2016 vs. 23-16 in 2015), are a good series away from taking first place and should remain in prime playoff position within what seems to be a watered down National League this season. So when things are relatively good, there needs to be something to be concerned over. So far, that something is Matt Harvey.
At 3-5 with a 4.93 ERA, Harvey is off to the worst start of his career. The numbers are in stark contrast for a pitcher who has never finished a season with an ERA over 2.73. The start of Harvey’s career has set expectations unreasonably high. When every start of your career is treated as an event, you’re bound to face plenty of criticism when things go wrong.
But one of the most important things to remember is that it’s hard to be a consistently elite pitcher. Having an ERA under 3.00 in his first three seasons is quite an accomplishment for Harvey, but only the best of the best pitchers can maintain that for a full career. Clayton Kershaw has done it for every year in his career besides his first, which makes sense because he’s really good. But if Harvey finishes the season with ERA in the 3’s or the 4’s, that doesn’t mean he’s suddenly bad.
Take Zack Greinke for example. Most would agree that he’s a very good pitcher. In 2009, Greinke won the Cy Young. From 2010-2012, he did not have an ERA below 3.48. David Price is another very good pitcher. He won a Cy Young in 2012. The next two seasons, his ERA was never lower than 3.26. Max Scherzer has just two seasons in his career with a sub-3.00, which is the same number of seasons he’s had an ERA over 4.00.
Furthermore, Harvey is not the only ace struggling this season. Of the top 5 in NL Cy Young voting last season, two of those pitchers (Greinke and Scherzer) have an ERA over 4.00. The top 3 in AL Cy Young voting from last season (Keuchel, Price and Gray) all have an ERA over 5.00. Unless you’re Kershaw, you go through good and bad stretches as a pitcher, even if you are really good.
The other thing about Harvey is that he hasn’t been that bad. His ERA (4.93) and WHIP (1.53) are bad. His other numbers suggest he might just be hitting some bad luck. His FIP is a perfectly respectable 3.35 (it was 3.05 in 2015). His K/9 is 8.08, which is the lowest of his career but not too far down from last season’s 8.94. His BABIP is .373, which is nearly .100 greater than his career mark. That will likely go down, which means less hits are on the horizon. With a good velocity (94.1 mph) on his fastball, his biggest issue right now is limiting his career high rate of 2.56 BB/9.
There’s also the human element of Harvey’s season, and the human element is often overlooked. Harvey is a pitcher that has not yet gotten in a groove this season, which is partially due to outside circumstances. If you recall, right before sprig training ended Harvey was treated for a bladder infection. This no doubt altered his preparation for the regular season. While Harvey started slow, he got better. His strikeouts went up in each of his first five starts, which was a stretch that concluded with back-to-back outings of only two runs allowed.
Then on May 3 against Atlanta, Harvey was sick during his start and pitched average at best in a loss to the Braves. But again, he was sick, and it can be hard to do anything well when you’re sick. His next start, when he was presumably recovered, he struck out 10 Padres in a win. And his next start after that was a trip to Coors Field — the hardest place to pitch in baseball, and a place he’s never pitched before. He gave up five runs, and plenty of elite pitchers have done similar in the thin air of Denver.
But now, barring illness, bladder infections, and unexpected trips to Coors Field, Harvey has a chance to finally get in a groove. His next four scheduled starts are twice against the Nationals, the White Sox and the Marlins. Maybe Harvey will continue to struggle and the Mets will have to figure out what to do with him. But maybe Harvey, who like most pitchers is a creature of habit, will just get comfortable again with a consistent schedule. The advanced statistics suggest there’s still a good pitcher in Harvey. We’re about to find out if he’ll show up in 2016.
