New York Mets fifth starter Jason Vargas currently resides in the hottest of seats. As the fan base clamors for free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel, and while lower-level options remain unsigned, the Mets’ 36-year-old southpaw is having himself a fine spring, albeit through just two Grapefruit League appearances.
Over 4.1 innings of work this spring, Vargas owns a 2.08 earned-run average with five strikeouts, two walks, 1.62 WHIP, and has thrown 73.7 percent of his pitches for strikes (62.9 percent in 2018; 63.5 percent over his career).
Although it’s still extremely early to jump to any conclusions, Vargas’ hot start combined with his terrific second-half resurgence last season should give Mets fans a glimmer of hope that the two-year, $16 million investment the last front office regime ponied up last season could end up paying some dividends.
After taking a comebacker off of his non-pitching hand late in Spring Training last season, pushing his season debut back to April 28, Vargas was arguably the worst pitcher in baseball over the first half of the year.
Among all MLB hurlers with over 30 innings pitched over the first three months of the 2018 season, Vargas’ 8.60 ERA was the highest and his -0.5 fWAR was tied for fifth-lowest (37.2 innings). Just atrocious.
Over the second half of the year, the 13-year MLB veteran turned things around considerably, pitching to a 3.81 ERA with a .218/.285/.376 slash line against, 1.12 WHIP (compared to 1.83 in the first half) 8.61 strikeouts and 2.65 walks per nine innings, a 3.92 fielding independent pitching rating, and 3.94 xFIP over 54.1 innings.
Like night and day, folks.
Bottom line, if Jason Vargas can reach or even come close to the level of production he (eventually) reached last season, especially as the fifth starter behind arguably the best rotation in the National League East in reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz, an ERA close to four and mediocre-to-respectable results will suffice just fine.
Naturally, an addition like Keuchel — as unlikely as it seems — would surely catapult the Mets’ rotation into the conversation for best in baseball and would just as surely send Jason Vargas to the bullpen as the team’s long reliever.
Whether general manager Brodie Van Wagenen dips his toe in the former Astros left-hander’s pond remains unknown, but if he doesn’t have the utmost confidence in Vargas’ ability to duplicate or replicate his success over the second half of the 2018 season, he’d be hard-pressed not to at least entertain the notion of adding the 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner and possibly explore the situation a bit further.
But until Jason Vargas actually provides the Mets with a reason to worry — which he really hasn’t done yet this spring — this point is probably moot. But if Brodie & Co. really are shooting for the stars this season, adding Keuchel seems like a no-brainer.
Turn Vargas into the insurance policy, even if he does cost $8 million.
