Mets fans started their week with terrible news, learning that right-hander Zack Wheeler has a torn UCL, which suggests he may need Tommy John surgery, and thus, could be lost for the season.
MetsTwitter is abuzz, blaming the organization for his high pitch counts last season, while also trying to find consolation in hoping that this means Noah Syndergaard‘s arrival to the big leagues will be accelerated. An impressive rookie campaign by Syndergaard could offset some of the innings lost from Wheeler, the logic goes. This is why pitching depth is so important, a constant reminding thought.
If Zack Wheeler does require Tommy John surgery, and is lost for the season, what does that mean to the Mets? How much can an increased workload from Syndergaard in the majors offset that loss?
Let’s find out.
When thinking about how important an individual player is to a team, it is important to understand the concept of wins above replacement. No, we don’t need to get into the gory math, we just need to understand that a two-win player is not directly worth two wins to their team, they are worth two wins above what a theoretical replacement level player would provide. In other words, if Zack Wheeler pitched to a 2.5 WAR in 2015, he would be adding 2.5 more wins through his performance than whoever the replacement-level, Dillon Gee-ish, pitcher could provide.
The best way of understanding what the Mets lose in Zack Wheeler is to look at his projected production for 2015, consider who will be replacing him, and see how it all comes out in the wash. Rather than simply looking at the wins above replacement level, we can consider the actual replacement production that will be taking Wheeler’s lost innings.
Since there are so many projections systems, I will use the FanGraphs mixed projection of ZiPS and Steamer. They have Zack Wheeler projected at 1.4 WAR this upcoming season over 148 innings pitched. After Wheeler tossed 185 innings last year, it is interesting that the projection systems see a decline, but that factors in rotation depth and risk of injury. Noah Syndergaard is projected to make six major league starts (37 innings) for a 0.5 WAR. Again, a conservative estimate of his major league impact in terms of innings pitched.
Between Wheeler and Syndergaard, that is 1.9 projected wins over 185 innings.
It would seem reasonable to believe that if Syndergaard was called up earlier in the season because of Wheeler’s injury, that he could pitch closer to 100 innings. Wheeler pitched exactly 100 innings in his age-22 debut season, which is Syndergaard’s age this season. By pitching 100 innings instead of his projected 37, assuming the same performance, Syndergaard could theoretically accumulate as many as 1.5 wins next season.
With Wheeler’s injury, a projected 1.4 wins above replacement are lost. By pitching Syndergaard more innings- and we can make similar assumptions using a pitcher like Rafael Montero or Steven Matz instead – the Mets could gain back some of those wins.
The problem is that the Mets would still need to make up for the added 48 innings (Wheeler’s projected 148 minus Syndergaard’s projected 100) plus the 37 innings Syndergaard would have pitched had Wheeler been healthy. If Syndergaard provides 1.5 wins over 100 innings, he is really only offsetting 1.0 of Wheeler’s lost wins (1.5 – 0.5 projection had Wheeler been healthy).
Who pitches the missing 85 innings (48 + 37) is where the true impact of Wheeler’s injury is found. Is that Dillon Gee? If so, Steamer and ZiPS like him for 0.2 wins over 79 innings already, and based on his track record, he probably wouldn’t add much more than that, given more innings. Is it Steven Matz? He could take the role Syndergaard was going to take as a late call-up and give 0.5 wins. It’s possible. And that is where the young pitching depth can prove most valuable.
By pitching Syndergaard and Matz more innings in 2015 than they would have had Wheeler been healthy, it’s possible that the lost 1.4 wins above replacement from Wheeler could be found.
What all of this is assuming, however, is that breakout performances by Syndergaard and Matz wouldn’t have forced the team to let them pitch more innings even if Wheeler was healthy. In other words, a lot more value is gained by replacing Dillon Gee innings with productive Syndergaard innings. If Thor pitched well enough to take Gee’s spot in the rotation, that could be as much as a 1.0 – 1.5 wins in added value.
In this second table, we can see Syndergaard’s innings taking away from Dillon Gee’s in a healthy Wheeler scenario. We also add some innings to Matz’ projection. By looking at it this way, the Mets are losing 1.2 wins by losing Wheeler, as essentially it would be Dillon Gee taking his spot instead of one of the exciting young pitchers.
In the end, it’s anyone’s best guess what the Mets rotation would have looked like this season with a healthy Wheeler versus what it will look like now that he is injured. Somewhere, 25-30 starts need to be replaced. If we look at things in a vacuum, and assume that Syndergaard and Matz can replace a large number of those starts, and they only would have done so given this injury, than the Mets may not be much worse off than if Wheeler stayed healthy. But, if we take a leap of faith in thinking that Syndergaard and/or Matz would have found a way to replace Dillon Gee’s starts, given a healthy Wheeler, than the Mets are losing out now that Gee must take on a larger role.
And, of course, all of these projections are just that, projections. We don’t know the real production of each player in 2015. Was Wheeler poised for a breakout season? Maybe he would have been a three-win pitcher and Syndergaard and Matz would prove they aren’t ready for big league action. If that’s the case, the loss is devastating for a team that could end up a few games away from wild card contention. All we can do is make reasonable guesses, and it appears, based on how the Mets would have pitched Syndergaard and Matz pre-injury news, that it’s Dillon Gee’s role and performance that could define the difference in the Mets rotation from Wheeler’s injury.
Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
Another original article from Metsmerized Online!
