It sounds like Shakespeare, right?
Since the offseason began, the Mets have been rumored to be one of many suitors for Francisco Lindor, the Indians’ four-time All-Star, who has a career slash line of .285/.346./488, with 99 stolen bases and 138 home runs over six seasons.
Lindor has a career DRS of 46 and a career bWAR of 28.4. He also has two Gold Gloves. Why wouldn’t the Mets, or any team, be interested? Let’s take a look at some of the considerations surrounding a potential Lindor trade.
The Mets may not have the prospects
Several people close to the Mets have mentioned that teams trading young stars will want prospects at the top levels of the organization. The Mets’ best prospects are at least a year, if not two, away. The Mets’ top prospect, Ronny Mauricio, hasn’t played above class A, and is just 19 years old. He is projected to arrive in the major leagues in 2022.
Brett Baty, the Mets’ third ranked prospect, is also projected to make his major league debut in 2022. Numbers two and four prospects, Francisco Alvarez and Matthew Allan, are both projected to debut in 2023. Would the Indians being be willing to take prospects that cannot help them this year? It’s a fair question to ask.
Shortstop isn’t among the Mets’ primary needs
Where does adding a shortstop fall on the Mets’ list of needs? Arguably, it may rank fourth, after starting pitching, center field, and catcher, Amed Rosario remains an enigma, as he has significant talent, but does not seem to be developing at the rate he should. Last year, Rosario slashed .252/.272/.371 with a -3 DRS in the shortened 2020 season, a regression after a good 2019 in which his numbers were .287/.323/.432 with a DRS of -10.
Andres Gimenez is an exciting prospect, who may have a high ceiling. His 2020 rookie season was solid at .263/.333/.398 with a DRS of 1 at shortstop. And with Mauricio waiting in the wings, the Mets have depth and options from which to choose at the shortstop position.
The Mets do have some big league talent they could trade, like J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo and Rosario. As Sandy Alderson has said, “there are two currencies in baseball: talent and money.” The Mets seem to be better positioned to spend money than trade talent at this point.
Counterpoint: Lindor is a star, go get him
The alternative argument is that Lindor, at 27 years old, is an elite player in his prime, and the opportunity to add such players does not come along very often. MMO has posted several articles on “the Lindor question”, including this case for pulling the trigger on a deal to bring the shortstop to Queens.
One concern with trading for Lindor is that he will be a free agent after 2021, so it would seem that before the Mets part with the prospects or big league talent required to obtain him, they’d have to be confident that they could retain Lindor beyond 2021.
I lean toward passing on Lindor, and filling the other identified needs first using the Mets’ newly found treasure trove of cash. It would be great to add Lindor to the Mets lineup, as he certainly is an elite player. However, as mentioned earlier, shortstop is a position where the Mets have depth in their system.
With Rosario, Gimenez and Mauricio, the Mets may be able to cover shortstop internally for years to come. It’s likely that none of these players will rise to Lindor’s level, though the glimpse we had of Gimenez in 2020 provided reason to believe he has a bright future.
When looking at priorities, the Mets may be better served to hold onto their prospects, and focus, at least in the short term, on filling catcher, center field, and starting pitching roles via free agency. Then, they can use their trade-worthy major league talent, including their “glut” of organizational shortstops, to fill other needs in a targeted way.
Regardless of which way the Mets go regarding Lindor, the emerging transformation of the organization is profound. The Mets have money, and will fill many of their needs via free agency. That’s a universally agreed-upon point.
Let that sink in. When was the last time we heard that?
