Mets Should Consider Signing LHP Jose Alvarez

With the non-tender aspect of the offseason now completed, it seems there could be a giant wave of signings coming in the near future, meaning the New York Mets probably aren’t finished adding to their already deep group of relievers just yet.

After agreeing to a two-year, $15.5 million contract with Trevor May earlier this week, the front office still needs to acquire at least one more relief pitcher before the start of next season, as the bullpen remains without a left-handed hurler. With Justin Wilson and Chasen Shreve – the organization’s only left-handed relievers in 2020 – both becoming free agents, there’s now a massive hole that must be filled either through free agency or via trade.

While the Mets certainly feature plenty of financial flexibility, this year’s free-agent class doesn’t appear to be flooded with high-end left-handed relief pitchers, as there’s a significant drop off in talent after Brad Hand. Though management could make a run at the former Indians hurler, he’ll likely command a salary similar to May’s ($7.75 million per season) and committing that much money to just two relievers probably isn’t the best decision to make, especially since they also need to address the starting rotation, outfield, infield, and the catcher position.

Looking to locate a diamond in the rough this winter, the front office could take a chance on someone like Jose Alvarez – who missed the final month of the 2020 campaign due to a groin contusion. As a result of his injury along with entering his age-32 season in 2021, there’s a strong chance he’ll earn close to his $2.95 million salary from this past season, which could make him a steal at that figure.

Despite being limited to just eight appearances in 2020, the 5-foot-11 reliever was considered one of the top arms in the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen at the time of his season-ending injury, as he enjoyed a strong performance in August. Even though the new three-batter minimum rule prevented him from solely matching up against left-handed hitters, the 31-year-old just carried on and found a way to succeed against right-handed batters as well.

Over his 6 1/3 innings in 2020, Alvarez faced 27 hitters, producing a 1.42 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 32 ERA-, 60 FIP-, 82 xFIP-, 22.2% strikeout rate, 38.8% chase rate, 25.0% whiff rate, 11.1% walk rate, 50.0% GB rate, 5.6% barrel rate, 38.9% hard-hit rate, an 86.3 mph average exit velocity, along with 0.1 fWAR.

Digging deeper into his resume, it appears the Venezuela native remains a bit of a project, as he allowed a troubling .313 xAVG, .377 xSLG, .328 wOBA, .341 xwOBA, and a .399 xwOBAcon in 2020. That being said, the former amateur free agent – who made the jump to MLB with the Boston Red Sox back in 2005 – has proven to be one of the top lefty specialists in the major leagues over the last few seasons and could dominate in that type of role with the Mets moving forward.

Among all left-handed relievers who completed at least 40.0 innings from 2018-2019, Alvarez finished with the 10th-lowest ERA (2.19), tied for the 11th-lowest walk rate (5.3%), and also ranked tied for the 13th-lowest WHIP (1.02), according to FanGraphs.com.

In addition, he also created a 3.64 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, .219 OPP AVG, 21.4% strikeout rate, 48.6% GB rate, 18.9% LD rate, 32.4% FB rate, 11.7% HR/FB rate, and a 33.5% hard-hit rate.

Taking into account these impressive results, there’s a chance Alvarez could improve even further against left-handed hitters if he refines his pitch mix, which he began adjusting through the first half of this past season. Utilized as a starter and a bulk innings reliever earlier in his career, the left-hander is capable of throwing up to six different pitches, but he’d be better off featuring just his low-90s sinker and four-seamer, mid-80s slider, and low-80s changeup.

For a better understanding of his repertoire, here’s what the Mets had to deal with back on Aug. 14, 2020:

In particular, it seems Alvarez would definitely benefit from increasing the usage of his changeup, as he’s enjoyed plenty of success with it throughout his career but only threw it 9.4% of the time against lefties this past season. Along with serving as a reliable weapon, his primary offspeed pitch also features incredible vertical and horizontal movements, making it a plus pitch that deserves more exposure.

If he qualified in 2020, his changeup would’ve finished with the 10th-most inches of drop (37.6 inches) and tied for the 11th-most inches of break (16.6 inches) among all left-handed pitchers in the majors, according to BaseballSavant.com.

Though Alvarez has posted a GB rate of at least 50.0% percent with his sinker in each of the last three seasons, it’s clear there’s some room to improve with his primary offering, as he needs to locate it a little bit lower in the strike zone. If he’s able to increase its vertical movements by a few more inches – it averaged 22 inches of drop in 2020 – then his sinking fastball should be able to induce even more ground balls and create plenty of additional swings and misses next season.

Considering the former Phillie still has some key adjustments to make to his game, it’d probably wise to utilize him in medium-leverage situations at the start of the season and then allow him to work his way up to becoming a high-leverage option during late-game situations. But since he’d be working with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, it’s possible the soft-throwing lefty could take his game to another level sooner than most experts would expect, especially since he doesn’t need to make any groundbreaking changes to his craft.

While adding Alvarez wouldn’t be the most popular acquisition of the off-season, nor should it be, it’s one that has the potential of making a very strong impact on the Mets’ bullpen and could also help them improve other areas of their roster. Since he’d command an inexpensive salary, those savings could be spent on impact players at other key positions through free agency.

Even if the front office isn’t sold on Alvarez, which would be understandable, it’d be foolish to arrive at spring training without a left-handed reliever, particularly one that’s considered a low-risk, high-reward type arm. So while there’s hasn’t been a ton of action over the last month, things could start to ignite fairly quickly, especially with the Winter Meetings just around the corner.