When Joe D messaged the staff with some roundtable questions the other day, the first one on the list asked us what the key was going to be to beating the Dodgers. I responded that the key would be finding a way to win when Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are on the mound. But the Mets’ performance against those two isn’t simply “something to watch for.”
Finding a way to win games against the Dodgers’ pair of ultra-aces is not simply the key to the series. It is the only way the Mets can win the series. It will be tough.
“I think as deep as we are with our pitching, I don’t think anybody in baseball really has a Kershaw and Greinke,” said team captain David Wright. “We’re going to throw out there some good arms against them, but when you look at the back of the baseball card of those two guys, that’s about as good as it gets.”
The Dodgers are 43-22 when their aces pitch. The Mets will likely see Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in games 1, 2, 4, and 5 against Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, either deGrom or Bartolo Colon, and either deGrom or Syndergaard, in that order. In 30 innings against the two LA aces this season (all in July), the Mets scored three earned runs. And don’t buy the nonsense about Kershaw being unable to pitch in the playoffs. Since came into his own as an ace, he’s had several great playoff starts and two bad ones— or really, two bad innings. That being said, the Mets will bring a better offense to the table than they did in July.
The two pitchers each average seven innings per start, and with what little caution the Dodgers may have displayed in the regular season about to be thrown to the winds, the Mets won’t be able to get to the much-criticized Dodger bullpen— from which manager Don Mattingly may only need to deploy rock-solid closer Kenley Jansen to spell the two aces— unless they can knock Kershaw and Greinke out of the game early. So any way you look at it, the Mets will need to score off of the two superstars, and they’ll need to do it in more than one game.
How many runs will they need to score? Hopefully not too many. The Mets will be putting some great starters on the mound as well. But there is greater risk of error. DeGrom, Harvey and Syndergaard have not been as good as Kershaw and Greinke (although I’d take Harvey over Greinke). Moreover, Harvey will only pitch once. The Mets might only use the heralded Harvey-deGrom combo twice in the first four games and certainly no more than three times in the series. Lastly, the Mets starters, especially Syndergaard, are very prone to the long-ball, and a home run with guys on base can be a death blow when facing Kershaw or Greinke. In terms of starting pitching, it’s advantage Dodgers.
And if the Mets’ young aces come up big, and they can match the two LA superstars, how deep in the games can they go? The Mets are certainly careful with their young pitchers, and while the reins will be loosened in the playoffs, they won’t be taken off completely. The Mets’ pitchers might only be able to go 6 or 7 innings if they’re not efficient with their pitches, and the bullpen has been a mixed bag other than Jeurys Familia. Throw in the fact that the Mets are more likely to need to use their non-closer bullpen guys, and the battle on the mound is one that will have me very nervous throughout the series.
If everybody pitches like they are supposed to, the Dodgers will win. But to borrow and censor a phrase from Terry Collins, “Things happen.” Can the Mets make things happen? Can they find a way to scratch a few runs off of the two aces on multiple occasions, and can they make those runs hold up with good defense and pitching from the starters to the bullpen? Maybe. It’s certainly not impossible, but at the same time it’s certainly not going to be easy. And it probably needs to happen early in the series, lest the Mets find themselves down 0-2 by the time they get home.
“We know offensively runs are going to be at a premium, so we have to do a nice job of not giving them extra outs,” Wright said. “Granted, we haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard lately, but we’ve shown that we’re capable of winning games offensively. So just stick to the game plan and do what you’re accustomed to, don’t try to go up there and change anything.”
Do or die time for the Amazins.
