Time For The Mets To Fulfill All These High Expectations

­ Folks, sources are telling me we made it. Opening Day is finally here. This past offseason wasn’t any longer than normal, but it certainly felt like it lasted about 20 years, didn’t it? The wait is thankfully over, and regardless of who signs and who doesn’t sign an extension heading into Thursday’s opener against the Washington Nationals, there are high expectations set for the New York Mets and manager Luis Rojas in 2021.

Projection systems are labeling the Mets as a playoff team, while MLB reporters and insiders are doing the same. New York underwent a significant roster overhaul throughout this past winter with Sandy Alderson steering the ship, and it was the type of legitimate hot stove action we as Mets fans haven’t experienced in quite a while. The last time I remember the Mets doing something like this and actually following through on the high expectations set for them was leading into the 2006 season when they fortified a roster that already had David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Pedro Martinez with guys like Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner, and Paul Lo Duca.

That’s the thing, though — it’s been a long time since New York was aggressive like this and actually watched it work out in a positive way.

What’s caught my eye as we watched this team prepare for the regular season throughout spring training was how highly regarded each area of the roster is being viewed. At the time of this writing, FanGraphs’ Depth-Chart projections have the Mets’ starting rotation posting a cumulative fWAR of 16.6, which would be third-best in baseball behind the San Diego Padres (17.1) and Los Angeles Dodgers (17.0). And, even though we’ve seen this story before with New York’s bullpen, the group is projected to accumulate 4.7 fWAR in 2021, with only the New York Yankees expected to produce more (4.8).

While neither the rotation nor the bullpen performed well overall during the shortened 2020 season, one area that did was the offense. Sure, the hitters had a tough time cashing in on their productivity when it came to scoring runs, but they still posted a cumulative wRC+ of 121, which was bested by only the World Champion Dodgers (122). With what appears to be a rejuvenated Pete Alonso and the additions of Francisco Lindor and James McCann, along with a full season of Dominic Smith, it’s not outrageous to think this group could once again be within the top-five offensive units in baseball.

An admittedly obvious key for the Mets will be to actually fire on all cylinders and get this done. I looked at New York’s fWAR production for the rotation and bullpen, along with wRC+ production on offense for each season since 2000, and there was only one instance where all three areas of the roster finished in the top 10: the 2016 season (rotation ranked third, the offense was 10th, and the bullpen was fifth). There were also two other instances where two areas of the roster cracked the top-10 in their respective categories (offense and starting pitching in 2019, offense and bullpen in 2006).

So as it currently stands with Opening Day staring us in the face, the Mets are expected to be a top-five squad in multiple categories — something they clearly haven’t done this century. Those are some lofty expectations for a club fresh off a 26-34 record. But of course, with the type of roster turnover that took place this past winter, this is hardly the same team.

A lot of things have to go right — and a lot of players have to stay healthy — for all of these projections to come to fruition. If we temper things down a bit, it’s clear that for New York to experience success and contend for a playoff spot, they likely need to be among the league’s best in at least two of these categories. When using the past 21 seasons as our guide, it could be the offense and rotation stepping up. The true wild card will be the bullpen, which is, well, nothing new in Queens.

But of course, this is where the rubber meets the road. The 60-game sprint is a thing of the past, and the 162-game war of attrition is back.  The projections and high expectations are all wonderful and exciting, but once New York takes the field Thursday night, all of it goes out the window, and I’m excited for that.

Not because I didn’t like seeing it all — I obviously did. I’m just ready to watch this squad gel and put together a platform-type year that’ll springboard the organization into its longest run of competitiveness we’ve ever seen. Everyone in the clubhouse knows what’s expected, now they have to go out and start winning.