Entering his fifth major league season, Steven Matz remains a difficult player to evaluate. His lengthy injury history makes him a massive risk, but the soon to be 28-year-old lefty still displays immense potential.
Matz registered a respectable 3.94 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 30 starts last year, but it’s how he finished the season that really stood out. During his final eight starts, he posted an excellent 2.44 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 44.1 innings.
Obviously, it’s a small sample size, but when a pitcher of Matz’s pedigree ends his season on such a high note, it shouldn’t go unrecognized. While his lack of consistency and durability have been concerning, I believe that 2019 can be the year that he overcomes these issues.
Matz’s back-to-back gems in late August and early September serve as a great reminder of just how good Matz can be when he’s locked in with his best stuff. On August 26, he pitched seven innings of one run ball against Washington while striking out seven batters.
In his next outing against San Francisco, Matz tied a career high with 11 punchouts in seven strong innings, proving that he can still dominate.
These starts also highlight something that Matz will improve upon in 2019: His Win/Loss record. Shockingly, Matz didn’t win either of these starts because of the Mets poor lineup and bullpen.
In the Washington game for example, the Mets lost by an astonishing score of 16-0 thanks to a meltdown by the relievers. Unfathomable letdowns like this show that Matz deserved so much better than his 5-11 record.
Much like his teammate Jacob deGrom, Matz stands so much to gain from all the players Brodie Van Wagenen acquired this winter. Acquisitions like Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Robinson Cano and Wilson Ramos will ensure that the team won’t be wasting many more of his gems this year.
Another key start from Matz was his final one on Sept 29 against Miami. While a matchup of two bottom ranked teams in late September may not seem like a significant event, the game was intense as it was David Wright’s final career start.
In front of the packed and emotional crowd at Citi Field, Matz fired six shutout innings with eight strikeouts. He appeared in vintage form as his blazing heater was hitting the mid-90’s, and his sharp breaking pitches were making the Marlins’ batters look foolish.
What makes this start so noteworthy is that it gives Matz momentum heading into the new season, which is something that he hasn’t had lately. Matz ended his 2016 and 2017 campaigns on the disabled list, but he now has something positive to build off.
This strong finish allows Matz to spend the offseason refining his mechanics, rather than rehabilitating injuries. This luxury can be massive for Matz because he’s shown significant signs of rust the past few years.
A piece of evidence that shows how rust impacted Matz is his increased walk rate:
- 2016: BB/9 2.1
- 2018: BB/9: 3.4
Given that Matz has missed so much time during past seasons, it’s not surprising to see him struggle with his command. And if anyone thinks that his control issues might instead be the result of diminishing stuff, it should be noted that Matz’s velocity remains close to his 2016 levels.
- 2016 Average Velocity: 94.6
- 2018 Average Velocity: 94.0
This is important because it shows that Matz can return to the solid pitcher he was in 2016. While Matz’s 2016 was cut short, he pitched well with a 3.40 ERA and 3.39 FIP in 22 starts.
Additionally, Matz’s strikeout rate remains high, proving that he can still miss bats and overwhelm hitters at the plate.
- 2016: K%: 23.6
- 2018: K/% 23.2
Some may notice that Matz’s BABIP suggests that he was fortunate on balls in play in 2018. While Matz’s .267.BABIP was the lowest of his career, I think that any BABIP regression will be offset by him regaining his control.
In addition to limiting walks, better location will enable Matz to prevent more hits and homeruns. Homeruns damaged Matz last year, as his 1.5 HR/9 caused his FIP to skyrocket to 4.62.
Even if a full offseason of good health doesn’t do wonders for Matz, nobody should expect him pitch as poorly as his FIP indicates. Other advanced metrics, like Matz’s 4.13 xFIP, do not suggest that he will regress as sharply because it’s accounting for his abnormal homerun rate.
I understand that Matz’s arm troubles can certainly strike again. Even though he made 30 starts in 2018, we saw how his health still hindered his performance at times.
Against Washington in late July for example, Matz pitched through a forearm strain with disastrous results. The Nationals shelled him for seven runs, and he didn’t make it out of the first inning. While it was only reported as a discomfort issue that required just a brief DL stint, the strain clearly prevented him from pitching at his best.
For an oft-injured pitcher like Matz, any setbacks like these are worrisome. But I do think Matz’s talent and strong 2018 finish provide reason for cautious optimism. I think many people are forgetting how high his upside is as the team’s fourth starter.
Just imagine the Mets’ rotation with a fully healthy Matz behind deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. While Mets’ fans usually don’t get this lucky, that rotation might be the most lethal staff in all of baseball.
