Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
An MMO Fan Shot by Greg Jones
The July 30 trading deadline looms for Mets fans, and while until recently arguments among reasonable people could be made as to whether we need a bat, some defense, a closer, or starting pitching, it is now clear that the answer is the latter. I will trot through the obvious reasons, but also lead into the longer-term dilemma for the Amazins …
In 2019, the last full MLB season, nine pitchers started the 162 games for the Mets. As of Rich Hill’s debut this week and Familia starting a bullpen game, an alarming 17 pitchers have started the 98 games of the Mets 2021 campaign. And that doesn’t include our planned SPs at this point, Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco.
Now, we will all remember how it was supposed to go:
DeGrom
Carrasco
Stroman
Walker
Peterson/Lucchesi/Yamamoto
Syndergaard (was hoped to have the impact of a trading deadline boost or joining the club for the stretch, as early as June)
Usually, in a perfect world, I would like to see four-plus guys (>.4.25 ERA), in their Age 31 or less, who had a complete season the year before (say 25 starts) and a few guys battling it out for the fifth spot who were either big upside rooks or seasoned veterans who were looking to rebound, but who had at least a past season of complete starts.
A good example of this would be our 2019 rotation, where we could have confidence that we would get at least, say, 25 starts out of our planned four-man rotation, as they had all delivered 25 or more starts in 2018. The weak link, Jason Vargas, a 2017 All-Star, started the season early and struggled to a 5.7 ERA in 20 starts, however, from Aug. 1 on he pitched to a 3.60 ERA and went 5-1 over his last seven.
In 2019, our rotation, thusly vetted, produced this, an amazingly consistent result:
Jake (Age 31): 32 starts, 11-8, 2.43 ERA
Syndergaard: (Age 26): 32 starts, 10-8, 4.28 ERA
Wheeler: (Age 29): 31 starts, 11-8, 3.96 ERA
Matz: (Age 28): 30 starts, 11-10. 4.21 ERA
Vargas (Age 36), Stroman (Age 29): 29 starts, 11-7, 3.90 ERA
That adds up to 154 starts, leaving just a handful for some roster experiments like Lockett and Font.
This was a savvy offseason plan, combining the last years of the Fab Four Mets starters, all still in their 20s except Jake at 31, all coming off complete seasons, all plus pitchers. Adding in a vet Vargas at the backend the year before, with a recent elite season and a career as a workhorse, was a good bet.
The type of trade we desperately need now.
Zack Wheeler was the number one prospect in baseball when the Mets swapped with the Giants for him in 2011 at the seemingly exorbitant price of Carlos Beltran. After nine years of injuries, surgeries, and flashes of brilliance, Wheeler was approaching free agency at the end of 2019……..and….the Wilpons weren’t particularly interested. Maybe the new GM Brodie Van Wageren wasn’t either, but you know the Wilpons weren’t interested, because Wheeler isn’t here. Brodie was a good soldier at the end and owned the decision. Upon signing with the Phillies for a whopping $118 million, five year deal, Wheeler blew his nose on some $100 bills and said some snarky things about the Mets lack of interest. Brodie said:
“Our health and performance department, our coaches all contributed and helped him parlay two good half-seasons over the last five years into a $118 million. We wish him luck.” – BVW, February 14, 2020.
Wished him luck, that was nice, although he added in some other smack. But the Mets, Cheapons and all, had a point. Wheeler has elite stuff, but can he do it year after year, physically and mentally? Possibly so, after finishing strong with the Mets in 2019 he has just now amassed 31 game starts with the Phils, and has been excellent. But…..after nine years of medical bills and erratic streaks, could you bet your last $118 million on it?
Now, whether that decision was chiseled in steel in July 2019, I don’t think we know. I believe the parties at least had a feel for what the deal would take, and with Wheeler pitching to a meh 7-6, 4.71 ERA. But with a trading deadline approaching, a pennant race summer ahead, and (most relevant here) an eye on the next year’s rotation, the Mets went after Marcus Stroman at the deadline, trading Anthony Kay for the fiery diminutive lefthander on July 28. (Kay, for what it’s worth, hasn’t lit up the world in Toronto, pitching to a steady 5+ ERA.) Stroman was signed through 2020, taking the foot off the Mets throat in terms of dealing with Wheeler.
Now…..how did they make room? Wheeler, as I said, was carrying a 7-6, 4.71 ERA for the 2019 season at the time of the trade. Vargas, while not pitching deep into games, was 6-5 with a 3.97 ERA in his starts for the Mets that year. But Vargas was 36. While I’m sure he would have loved to sign a one-year deal and be part of the 2020 Mets rotation, time waits for no one. Vargas had a career year out of the blue at 34, but his age 32, 33, and 35, due to injury, combined for only 32 starts (not, say, 90.) Pitchers in their mid-30s are a dangerous gamble. Actually, they aren’t, there is no mystery because the vast majority of good pitching careers end right there, at least the full season elite type. Vargas was drop-kicked over to division rivals Philadelphia for a 28-year old non-prospect AA catcher who was college teammates with a Wilpon grandson. Look it up.
That is how much the Mets wanted to depend upon an age 36 pitcher in their rotation for the next year.
Now, let’s remember the checklist of age, health, and production and look at the current situation. Next year the Mets have signed:
Jake: Age 34 and a series of five separate injuries this year.
Carrasco, Age 35, and a series of injuries for several years.
Walker: 33 starts since 2017 out of a possible @80. Plus we hope he isn’t hurt….
Peterson: never had more than 15 MLB starts and, with a 5.54 ERA this year, a career ERA headed rapidly toward 5.
Megill: has never had more than 11 professional starts in a year until this year, and he is working on 14 — 8 in the minors and 6 in the majors. Love his sprint, but we need him in the marathon.
Anyone, I’m missing guys? By the optimal age, health, performance criteria, we have nobody signed for 2022. Nobody under 32 with a recent record of a full season of starts. In fact, unless Jake gets on the stick, nobody over 32 either.
And looking to 2023, if Jake walks after next year and we don’t extend anyone, we have the following pitchers signed:
Oswalt
Peterson
Megill
Lucchesi
Carrasco (he’ll be Age 36, but we have an option)
That isn’t normal for a major league team. Look at the Marlins and the Braves. They have elite young arms under control well into the future.
Oh stop, I can hear you thinking. We aren’t poor. We have Cohen bucks.
So let’s look at next year’s free agents starting pitchers. There’s sixty-five! Scherzer, Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke, Wainwright! But now look at the ages – 39, 34, 38, 40, 39…..
We already HAVE an age problem with Jake and Carrasco for next year. So let’s limit it to pitchers 31 and under (2022 age) without entangling options:
Dylan Bundy (29)
Zach Davies (29)
Kevin Gausman (31)
Jon Gray (30)
Andrew Heaney (31)
Michael Lorenzen (30)
Jordan Lyles (31)
Steven Matz (31)
Daniel Norris (29)
Martin Perez (31)
Robbie Ray (30)
Carlos Rodon (29)
Eduardo Rodriguez (29)
Aaron Sanchez (29)
Marcus Stroman (30)
Noah Syndergaard (29)
Julio Teheran (31)
Jose Urena (30)
Vince Velasquez (30)
Michael Wacha (30)
Alex Wood (31)
Wacha, Matz….yuk….21 guys. Without tearing into Stathead, let’s winnow it further by having some faith in the free market and assuming that any 29 + year guy with the solid recent game that we need is making at least 9 million in 2021? Fair?
Here is that list, 2022 free agent starting pitchers currently making more than $9 mil:
Stroman
Gausman
Syndergaard
Gausman and Stro will be the belles of the ball, the only three worthy of a 5+ year $100 million deal. In the event Syndergaard can string together some solid healthy starts he’ll join them.
So, much like in July 2019, we can’t know. We can’t know if we can re-sign Stroman and Syndergaard, just like we couldn’t know if we could re-sign Wheeler. But we did know, then, that Vargas with his barrages of old man injuries was too old to depend on to give a full season of plus performance in a rotation spot. And we know now that our two front-end guys, Jake and Carrasco, are entering the pitcher death zone in age and already missing starts with multiple maladies.
This is the point where everyone starts throwing their tire around the cage and says I don’t love Jake and I’m not a Mets fan or starts hollering anecdotal evidence around with freaks like Greinke and Scherzer. But let’s run a test on National League starting pitchers. From 2017 to 2019, three full seasons. From Age 33 to Age 35. We’ll say a season we seek is 26 starts with an ERA below 4.00.
That happened only 8 times in those three years. Twice by Scherzer. Twice by Greinke. Hamels, Sanchez, Lester, Samardzjia, once each. To think that both Jake and Carrasco….already injured….will both pull that season together next year is…..well, it might be being a fan, but it isn’t being the adult in the room, because the odds are very much against it.
Summation:
The Mets must seek out a costly, painful, unpopular one-sided trade to get a front end pitcher who is signed through 2022. I’ll throw Berrios out as a “type”….don’t start shouting his warts at me. But he hasn’t missed a start in four years, he is Age 27, a two-time All-Star, 26-17, 3.67 ERA over the past three years, under control until 2023, and being shopped.
We need something like that, if not him. We will have to outbid teams with more prospects to trade, but there are no teams with more cash to offer in terms of bad contracts or what have you. We might need a precursor deal to get desired prospects by taking on a bad contract. It will cost treasure and blood, but it is a pivot point for this franchise, one where we stop playing meaningful games in September and start building a team to win the World Series.
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This MMO Fan Shot was contributed by Greg Jones. Have something you want to say? Share your opinions with the best and most diverse Mets community on the web! Send your Fan Shot to [email protected].
