Spring training is fake baseball. We know this. It gets the kinks out. But we always look for pockets of hope, especially as you follow a team whose expectations aren’t exactly World Series or bust. You can point to Brett Baty‘s great March. Francisco Álvarez looks like a real threat in preventing the run game. And the Mets’ rotation could actually be greater than the sum of its parts.

The Mets this offseason had to overhaul much of their major-league pitching. They added three new starters and seemingly a dozen new bullpen arms on the 40-man roster. And then Kodai Senga got hurt! That left the rotation as José Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser and a competition in spring for the final spot. Tylor Megill grabbed that one by the horns.

Luis Severino. Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Through all of this turnover, the Mets managed to have the best ERA (3.48) in spring ball this year. Part of that might be competition—playing the Marlins and Nationals 13 times in 30 games helps. But the team still needed to perform. Some highlights include:

  • Luis Severino: 14 IP, 1.29 ERA, 12 K
  • Sean Manaea: 16.2 IP, 3.24, 21 K
  • José Butto: 10 IP, 0.90 ERA, 9 K
  • Michael Tonkin: 8.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 7 K
  • Jorge López: 8 IP, 2.25 ERA, 6 K
  • Jake Diekman: 7 IP, 2.57 ERA, 9 K
  • Drew Smith: 5.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 6 K

The results from spring, though, don’t always mean success in the regular season. Spring is the time to give prospects and fringe roster spots a chance. Their results often inform why they did or didn’t make the team. But the Mets’ success this season will come from the fringes and non-stars. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor aren’t carrying this team to the playoffs. They need guys like Manaea, Severino, López, and Smith to perform above expectations. Despite poor springs, they need Quintana to play like a true No. 2 and Houser to be more than an innings eater.

Spring was a great reset for the team that seemingly needed to shed expectations that came with spending big money on future Hall of Famers. Expectations aren’t sky high, and projections don’t love the current state of the Mets’ rotation. (ZiPS has the Mets’ starters in the bottom third of the league.) And they’re justified! But the big story this year will be how the rotation and bullpen perform. Can they keep up their good start?