Ian Desmond is probably available for the right package, but the Mets won’t be signing him. If the Nationals were willing to discount him given he is a one year rental there might be a possibility, however, they’re not, in fact they appear more likely to stick with him through 2015 rather than offer him at a discount.
They will at the very least recoup a first round compensatory draft pick in the event of his departure, so whoever wishes to start discussions on Ian Desmond better be willing to offer not only what Desmond would represent in WAR for his 2015 season, but at least one top prospect given he will at least be bringing back a top pick for the Nats. That’s a steep price right off the bat … now if you add an extension contingency, then you are talking possibly a major leaguer and multiple prospects. Ideally this would work out best for both the Nats and the receiving team, but this hinges to some extent on whether Desmond is willing to talk.
So lets consider the first contingency. Desmond isn’t willing to negotiate an extension and / or the Mets are incapable (or unwilling) to offer a multi-year contract. Under this scenario his value is greatly diminished and you are looking at trading for a year’s worth of Desmond in addition to the prospect he’d bring back by means of qualifying offer.
Desmond (per steamer) is projected to hit 18 HR, 73 RBI with a .258 AVG and 2.9 WAR. His defense has dipped of late, with a drop from a 6.0 UZR/150 in 2012 to a 0.1 in 2014. He is notoriously inconsistent in the field and appears to already be in some decline defensively. If you are looking for replacement value, Daniel Murphy put up 2.8 WAR in 2014 and would be a good start, you’d also probably need to throw in a top prospect and maybe a lesser prospect as well. So you’re looking at maybe Murphy or Gee, a top 15 guy like Matz or Conforto, and a top 30ish guy, someone like Robert Whalen. I doubt the Nationals would go for that but given you are essentially renting Desmond for 6 months it just isn’t worth giving up more.
Now if Desmond agrees to an extension, then you are conceivably looking at a major leaguer and a couple of top prospects and maybe a throw in. So something like Murphy, Montero, Herrera (or Plawecki), and maybe someone like Jack Leathersich or Wilfredo Tovar. You might be able to avoid sending Herrera or Plawecki with Murphy in the deal depending (on how they value Murphy) but either way the price in prospects would be considerable. I just don’t see this happening … not only would a deal like this take a significant chunk out of the Mets’ prospect stockpile, the likelihood of the Mets signing a $150 million dollar extension with Desmond is virtually nil given current financial parameters.
Is Desmond even worth an outlay like this? The Nationals offered him $100 million last April and he turned it down. Do they see him as a $150 million dollar player? Probably not. Is he a $150 million dollar player? Well, if he’s the 5 WAR player he was in 2012 and 2013 than you could argue yes, but he’ll be turning 30 this year and his defense has already declined with 44 errors over the last two seasons. More likely he’ll be a good 2 to 3 WAR player for the majority of his contract.
For the record, steamer projects Wilmer Flores to hit 15 HR with 56 RBI and a .248 AVG … no one is saying Flores will outperform Desmond, but when you realize the upgrade per steamer amounts to 3 HR, 16 RBI and 10 BA points you have to ask yourself, is that worth giving up Montero, Plawecki, Murphy (or Gee) and a throw in? Probably not. Sure, Flores is a big question mark at shortstop, but it’s no secret that the Nationals weren’t pleased with the performance of their infield defense in last year’s NLDS. It’s not like Desmond is going to win a Gold Glove, and Flores may very well be passable at short with a bat could evolve into something special.
Given all of the above I think it extremely unlikely that the Mets somehow work out a deal for Ian Desmond, I actually think it’s next to impossible.
