Whats up, y’all? I just wanted to drop in and talk about how awesome Jason Vargas has been before he takes the mound against the Yankees tonight. I’m not here to talk sustainability or regression – I’m just here so I don’t get fined. Really though, I want to take a semi-deep dive into how Vargas has been so successful lately and what he’s doing differently since he’s returned from the Injured List.

Man, this was a rough stretch. Remember these days? When everybody wanted to run him out-of-town. You couldn’t turn on WFAN without somebody complaining about Vargas. How does he respond? My guy turns around and he shoves. Big time.

Granted, the Giants and Tigers aren’t the best hitting teams in the league but to dominate an offensive juggernaut like the Dodgers…SHEESH. Lets break it down (insert DX theme music here).

PERIPHERALS

A couple of things stand out to me when going behind the surface numbers. We’ll start by focusing on O-Swing% and Z-Swing%. For those who don’t know, O-Swing% is the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone and Z-Swing% is the percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone. Take a look.

It may not seem like a big jump in O-Swing% but the more Vargas can make hitters chase, the easier time he’ll have navigating through lineups. It would be nice for that number to creep up to the 32.6% it was at last season (which would be higher than the current league average of 30.8%) but beggars can’t be choosers. That number will usually coincide with Z-Swing% as the less pitches the hitter can decipher, the harder it is for the hitter to decide if the pitch will be in the zone or not. Essentially, make them swing at bad pitches.

PITCH INFO

You’ll see in all the plots and graphs below that there has been a major change in Vargas’ repertoire since he’s come off the IL. Specifically with his curveball and changeup.

The usage rate of his curveball has more than doubled since his return. Based on the results, this has played a key role in his recent success. Also, his changeup has been substantially more effective as location has been the big difference there.

Curveball

In my humble opinion, pitch tunneling is whats making his curveball so effective. So I took a look at his release points and found this.

If you’re not familiar with these plots it may look a little odd but basically Vargas is disguising his curveball with his fastball which is making it more effective. Earlier in the season, the curveball was essentially coming from the same plane as the changeup which didn’t produce good results. Now, with the release point of the changeup being a bit different and the curveball-fastball combo coming from the same tunnel, Vargas really has hitters on their heels.

CHANGEUP

So, this is the plot for Vargas’ changeup over the course of the entire season. As a whole, it looks all over the place but when you look at his approach against lefties pre and post IL stint, you can see the difference.

You’ll notice below that since Vargas has returned, he has really made it a point to go away from lefties with his changeup and not inside. Such a small adjustment that has gone such a long way.

The Wrap Up

Some of you may have really enjoyed this blog post, while some of you may have skipped to the end just to see if I think Jason Vargas can keep this up for the rest of the season. I really tried to stay away from all the negatives and appreciate what Vargas has done over his last couple of outings and so should you. At the end of the day, the Mets playoff hopes probably wont hinge on Jason Vargas but you have to respect the resilience he’s shown this season. Thanks for reading y’all.