The Five Mets Who May Make Or Break the 2024 Season

This upcoming 2024 season is shaping up to be a curious season for the New York Mets. After a disaster of a 2023, the team is resetting behind new president of baseball operations David Stearns. It appears that an eye is set on long-term success and sustainability through a strong farm system while lowering their luxury tax bill presently. But, for now, the team provides an interesting mix or star-level talent, capable, but uninspiring big-leaguers, young players with a point to prove, and depth options who are hoping to break out.

All told, the 2024 Mets feel like they have a wide range of possibilities terms of where they’ll end up in the standings. There is enough talent there to make a playoff push, but there are also serious holes in the roster that could prove fatal and see the team heading for another fourth-place  finish in the division.

If the Mets are going to exceed expectations this season, the following five Mets will all need to perform. While stars like Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Kodai Senga, Brandon Nimmo, and Edwin Díaz will likely be the team’s best players, these five have the ability to make or break how the season finishes based on how their season turns out.

5. Drew Smith

Beyond the returning Díaz, the back end of the Mets’ bullpen still feels a bit flismy. While veterans Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley are capable of being late-inning stalwarts, the Mets are in desperate need of another name emerging and becoming a reliable option. In the offseason, in addition to re-signing Ottavino, the team brought in some intriguing names like Jake Diekman, Shintaro Fujinami, and Jorge López who could be that spark.

However, if there’s one player whose performance truly feels like it could tilt the Mets’ bullpen in one direction or the other, its the 30-year-old Drew Smith. Smith is now entering his sixth season with the club, and he has yet to put all of his talents together to become an elite high-leverage reliever. While Smith had good seasons in 2021 and 2022, he struggled mighitly in 2023, as his walk-rate skyrocketed and his velocity dipped.

Although he has minor-league options remaining, and won’t become a free agent until after next season, this season feels like a true make-or-break for Smith’s time in Queens. The Mets have a need for reliable late-game relievers, and he will be afforded plenty of opportunities once again to prove he belongs in a setup role. However, if Smith struggles like he did a season ago, the team will be left praying that its veterans like Raley, Ottavino, and Diekman (35, 38 and 37, respectively) can hold up in the position throughout the entire 162-game season.

4. Carlos Mendoza

Is it cheating to put the Mets’ manager on this list? Maybe. But Carlos Mendoza’s ability to adapt to his first big-league managing job will undoubtedly be a monumental factor in how the Mets perform in 2024.

When the Mets moved on from Luis Rojas in 2022, and hired Buck Showalter, there was an immediate shift in the team’s culture and play on the field. The following season resulted in a 101-win campagin and playoff appearance. While Mendoza lacks Showalter’s experience, he has the opportunity to bring a similar fresh new perspective to a club that couldn’t get out of its own way in 2023.

With lower expectations, Mendoza will have a little more room to grow on the job than Showalter and Rojas did. However, the Mets lack a truly elite roster, so if they are going to stay in the mix for a wild card spot, they will need their manager to push the right buttons and help them win games on the margins.

Until Mendoza manages his first big-league game, he will remain somewhat of an unknown quantity. While he has been recieving plenty of positive reviews early on, I don’t need to tell you how quickly the fanbase (or even a clubhouse) can sour on a manager if they make too poorly thought-out moves. Ultimately, the Mets’ season will come down to player performance, but Mendoza is an important entity to watch as the season progresses.

3. Brett Baty

Going into the 2024 offseason, the Mets had a decision to make about their long-term outlook at third base. Once one of the top prospects in baseball, Brett Baty had a disappointing 2023 season in his first full season in the majors. Players like Matt Chapman were available (and technically still is, although he is extremely unlikely to sign with the Mets) in free agency, as well as other capable veterans on the trade market. Or, the Mets could have chosen to give Baty another shot at the job.

Baty’s path to the starting job became clear once the Mets never made a serious run at a veteran third baseman and when fellow infield prospect Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL in a Domincan Winter League game. In a vacuum, it’s not surprising the Mets are deciding to roll with Baty as their primary third baseman in 2024, despite his .212/.275/.323 slash line a year ago. It feels incredibly early to give up on a 24 year-old who showed so much potential while playing in the minors.

But, if Baty does struggle again, the Mets have no other everyday option at third. They did sign veteran Joey Wendle in the offseason, but the light-hitting utility player is unlikely to become the Mets’ everyday third baseman for more than a short period. Other than Wendle, with Mauricio out, the only other capable third baseman on the 40-man roster is Zack Short, who hit .204 in 253 plate appearances for the Tigers last season.

Simply put, the Mets will need Baty to perform if they want to have an above-average offense. The team currently lacks pop in the bottom of its lineup, but if Baty is able to breakout, they will be looking a lot more threatening once Pete Alonso‘s spot in the order is cleared. ZiPS projects Baty to have a .712 OPS in 2024 with a 1.7 fWAR and 17 home runs. That would not constitue a breakout, but would still be a big enough imporvement that Baty would likely secure the starting job in 2025.

However, if he fails to live up to expectations again, the Mets could be on the hunt for a new permanent third baseman come next offseason.

2. Luis Severino

The Mets’ starting rotation is looking paper thin after the injury to Kodai Senga, which will keep him out for at least the first few weeks, and likely more, of the season. José Quintana is the now the Mets’ unlikely ace to open the season, and while he showed in 2023 that he can still be a capable pitcher when healthy, he’s not exactly Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer.

Behind Quintana, there are a lot of question marks. Adrian Houser and Sean Manaea project to be league-average starters, capable of churning out innings and keping the Mets in games, but unlikely to develop into All-Star caliber pitchers at this stage of their careers. Tylor Megill, José Butto, Joey Lucchesi, and Max Kranick linger as depth options. Meanwhile, Christian Scott, Mike Vasil, and Dominic Hamel are prospects waiting for their opportunity. David Peterson will also be in the mix when he returns from injury later in the season.

All told, it’s a rather uninspiring group, if significantly deeper than it was in past seasons. However, there is one name that could quickly change the fortunes of the Mets’ rotation if he’s able to recapture his old form. That being starter Luis Severino.

Severino has a golden opportunity with the Mets in 2024, and, after signing a one-year prove-it deal, he will be highly motivated to show teams across Major League Baseball that he is still the same pitcher that was a Cy Young finalist in 2017 and an All-Star a year later. As recently as 2022, Severino still had a 124 ERA+.

However, Severino fell off of a cliff for the Yankees last season. If he produces similar results with the Mets this year (6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings), their rotation is in big trouble. David Stearns is banking on Jeremy Hefner and company being able to get Severino back on track. If he’s right, the Mets have the potential to have a dynamic top of their rotation once Senga returns.

1. Starling Marte

When the Mets’ offense was hummung in 2022, Starling Marte was right in the middle of it all. A rock-solid No. 2 hitter that gave protection to Nimmo, Lindor, and Alonso, Marte provided his typical mix of a high batting-average, speed, and some pop. He was exactly the player the Mets needed to lengthen their lineup.

Unfortunately, Marte’s performance last season didn’t measure up in any concievable way. He spent the majority of the season on the injured list for various ailments, and, when he did play, he struggled, slashing just .248/.301/.324, all career lows.

Now, in year three of his four-year contract, the 35-year-old Marte will once again open the season as the Mets’ projected starting right fielder. If he’s able to come close to replicating his 2022 season and remain healthy while doing it, the Mets have a chance of having an above-average lineup. But, if he struggles at the plate and in the field, or gets injured again and is forced to miss significant time, the Mets will likly struggle to fill the gaps.

The team does have veteran outfielders Tyrone Taylor and DJ Stewart that can fill in for Marte, but neither are as talented as Marte when he is healthy and engaged. With Nimmo, Lindor, Alonso, Francisco Álvarez, Jeff McNeil and a potential bouncback season from Baty, the Mets could have a suddenly dangerous offense if Marte can get back to form.

However, if Marte continues to struggle, the Mets may be forced to cut bait with a year remaining on his deal, and may need to count on young prospects like Drew Gilbert or Jett Williams to take his place earlier than they were hoping for.