The Fight for Backend of the 2024 Rotation

There is no doubt that the Mets will be looking to fill in the rotation for 2024 after the departing of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, as well as the injury to Carlos Carrasco. With Kodai Senga finishing a phenomenal rookie year and even being considered for the Cy Young and José Quintana solidifying himself as a quality arm, the other three spots are up for grabs. The Mets will certainly add pieces this offseason via free agency and/or trades. Still, they will also need internal pieces like David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Luchessi, and José Butto to step up for backend depth.

Jose Quintana began his Mets career during spring training before going down with a stress fracture in his ribs. In his two starts in spring training, Quintana pitched 1 2/3 innings innings and gave up five runs giving him a 27.00 ERA. This would be the last we’d see of Quintana until July, when he made his long-anticipated Mets debut against his former team, the Chicago White Sox. Quintana pitched five innings and only allowed six hits, two runs, zero walks, and three strikeouts against his former team. Ever since this first start Quintana holds a 3-5 record with a 3.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 45 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings. Quintana has proved to be a reliable arm and a good veteran presence to the team, so it’s safe to say his spot in the rotation is solidified for next year, assuming he can stay healthy.

On the other hand, the Mets have left-handed pitcher David Peterson and right-handed pitcher Tylor Megill who have bounced up and down the system the last year after showing glimpses of promise the last few seasons.

David Peterson

David Peterson is still trying to find his 2020 and even 2022 form, where he posted a 3.44 ERA and a 3.83 ERA. This year has been a totally different story for Peterson, as he’s posted a 5.37 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after being optioned to Triple-A Syracuse multiple times. In his last nine games, Peterson has been better with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP in 41 2/3 innings, but with 52 strikeouts in that span. Still not at the level of success he had previously, though much better than the 6.46 ERA he had in his first 11 starts of the season.

The biggest issue for Peterson this season has been the home run ball; he’s given up 16 already in only 104 innings. Both lefties and righties have teed off on Peterson this year, with both of them having an OPS over .840 against the left-hander.

Tylor Megill

As for Tylor Megill, there is no doubt that he has been working on trying to stay in the rotation for next year as he’s battled his last few starts. In Megill’s last seven games, he’s posted a 3.13 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP and 28 strikeouts to 15 walks. This grit from Megill to keep himself in the ballgame and fight through jams could be exactly what the Mets need from a depth option for the rotation behind Senga, Quintana, and offseason additions.

Megill, like Peterson, has pitched better of late after a rough start to the season, but he’s still walking over 4.20 per nine innings and has given up six home runs in only 31 2/3 innings during his recent outings.

Joey Lucchesi 

Another name that gets forgotten is left-hander Joey Lucchesi who the Mets got back in 2021, but missed all of 2022 with a tear in his left elbow of his ulnar collateral ligament. Lucchesi and his churve have made a legitimate bid for the 2024 season as he has campaigned a 3-0 record with a 2.88 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight games and 40 2/3 innings for the Mets in a much-needed spot.

The 30-year-old has clearly pitched the best when compared to Megill and Peterson this season, though his sample size is small, with only eight starts in the big leagues this year. It will be interesting to see how the Mets handle this left-hander and his churve going forward with the rotation.

José Butto

Now this last option for the 2024 starting rotation is an interesting one. Right-hander José Butto has made quite the name for himself in his last few starts after starting off horribly in his one appearance in 2022. In Butto’s last three games, he’s gone 17 1/3 innings allowing only 12 hits, four runs, and five walks, while striking out 19 batters. This season, Butto has gone 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in what seems to be him figuring out the kind of pitcher he is and how he wants to attack offenses.

Considering he is only 25 years old and it is his first true shot in the majors, his name might be one that the Mets will think about when discussing depth for their 2024 rotation.

The Mets also have upper-level rotation arms in the minor leagues, with Top 30 prospects Blade Tidwell, Dominic Hamel, Christian Scott, and Tyler Stuart all in at least Double-A. Right-hander Joander Suarez finished off the season in Double-A with two straight weeks of winning Eastern League Pitcher of the Week that included throwing a seven-inning no-hitter.

It will be interesting as to who the Mets might go after, but there are definitely some contenders who will want to finish this season on a positive note and work in the offseason to be invited to spring training 2024.