The 2016 Mets promise to look a lot different from the 2015 Mets, which is something that makes a lot of fans nervous, particularly as this was a team that made it to the World Series. The Mets currently have 18 players reaching free agency, including Bartolo Colon, Daniel Murphy, Yoenis Cespedes, Bobby Parnell, Tyler Clippard, Juan Uribe, Jerry Blevins, Eric O’Flaherty, Kelly Johnson, and Anthony Recker. Sure the starting pitching is set, but on the field, how much turnover is too much?
Lot’s of talk about getting a new shortstop so far this offseason… The Mets have some talent in their infield pipeline with Gavin Cecchini and (further down Amed Rosario, but current options Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada are pretty decent in their own right, making any upgrade through trade problematic.
Whatever talent you’d acquire at shortstop would not only potentially block Rosario/Cecchini, it would more than likely result in a net loss in WAR over time given that the short term gain would be marginal and the loss of quality pitching on the Mets’ end would likely result in a long term deficit. A free agent would be nice in this regard and Ian Desmond has been linked to the Mets. But Desmond comes with question marks of his own and the loss of a draft pick. Desmond is also hardly an upgrade defensively and would likely require a 4 or 5 year deal which would again block our prospects. The Mets might be best served playing some combination of Tejada/Flores/Herrera up the middle with Matt Reynolds on the bench in 2016.
By doing so the Mets could focus on upgrades in center field and the bullpen, but even in center, to what extent did Lagares’ shoulder hurt his play? Tough calls all around … Justin Upton certainly fills the run production void left by Cespedes, but he is expensive, would cost a draft pick, and he isn’t really a center fielder. Dexter Fowler is getting some attention after a career year, but defensively he does not duplicate Lagares’ play, he would also cost a draft pick, and it’s unclear whether his budding power (which is perhaps the most marked development in his free agent profile) would translate to Citi Field.
Ideally, the Mets need someone supremely versatile, who can play the infield or the outfield, and who can hit in a variety of positions in the order. Preferably someone with good instincts and good contact rates and some power. It would also be nice if this player did not have a qualifying offer attached to him – and some playoff experience couldn’t hurt.
Well it just so happens there’s a player out there who fits this profile perfectly. I am of course talking about Ben Zobrist. There’s only one real blemish with this guy, he is 34 years old so you’d be looking at some inevitable decline. The market for his services also promises to be robust. Right now the only real dip in his offensive numbers appears to be in his stolen base output. Everything else looks solid — including his average fly-ball distance. Zobrist posted the best contact rate of his career in 2015, and he produced more walks than strikeouts, which should appeal to the Mets in particular. For a two year $20 million dollar deal similar to Michael Cuddyer I’d do it in a heartbeat, anything more could be too much, too late for a player who very soon will be on the wrong side of his thirties.
I’d add that should they sign Zobrist it might not be a bad idea to try and land Denard Span as well, another “non QO” guy, thereby preserving the Mets’ top draft pick while addressing some real needs. The bullpen could be retooled and without really clogging up any pipelines, breaking the bank, or giving up quality pitchers, the Mets could easily return to form and compete in 2016.
The only concern in going this rout is the dramatic reduction in power output resulting from the loss of Yoenis Cespedes, who, incidentally, is another “non-QO” guy. Here we have the very real persisting dilemma of cost. The Mets are rumored to have something around $23 million in spending money this season. Blowing $17 million of it on one player won’t work. In this sense, the Mets continue to operate like a small market team. A lot of fans were turned off by Cespedes after his poor World Series performance, but you can’t deny the effect he had on the lineup during the regular season. Zobrist and Span would be nice complementary pieces, but without the threat of a Cespedes type bat I’d worry about production tanking.
In a perfect world the Mets could add Span, Zobrist, and Cespedes, toss in Darren O’Day and call it O’day. They could do this while not only retaining their own top draft pick but likely picking one up for the loss of Murphy – making this coming draft an opportunity to really bolster their system. But the above would cost upwards of $40 million and is beyond unlikely. While I’d settle for Span and Zobrist and two high draft picks next year, counting on making up Cespedes’ production from full years of Travis d’Arnaud and David Wright is a precarious assumption. Truth be told, out of all the players mentioned above, going with Cespedes and O’Day would probably have the biggest impact over 162 games.
In the end, Sandy Alderson has to be worried about disrupting the chemistry that allowed the 2015 Mets to go on their thrilling run. Turnover can be good when you’re struggling, but this is a team that wants to make sure they retain the pieces that brought them success in 2015 — no small task given the scant flexibility afforded to the front office by an ownership whose chief priority is recouping mega-dollars to pay down their enormous debt.
